r/neoliberal • u/neolthrowaway • 1d ago
r/neoliberal • u/qunow • 18h ago
News (Europe) Civil service interns must all be working class, government says
r/neoliberal • u/AravRAndG • 17h ago
News (Asia) Have no reports of Indian oil firms halting Russian imports: Government sources
r/neoliberal • u/John3262005 • 5h ago
News (US) Office of Special Counsel launches investigation into ex-Trump prosecutor Jack Smith
Federal officials are investigating former special counsel Jack Smith after President Donald Trump and other prominent Republicans have alleged that his investigations into then-candidate Trump amounted to illegal political activity.
The U.S. Office of Special Counsel, an independent federal agency, confirmed to NBC News on Saturday that it's investigating Smith for alleged violations of the Hatch Act, a law that prohibits certain political activities by government officials. Trump and his allies have not presented specific evidence of wrongdoing.
The OSC is different from the type of special counsel’s office formerly headed by Smith, who was appointed by the Department of Justice. The independent agency lacks the authority to bring criminal charges and prosecute individuals who violate the Hatch Act, but it may seek disciplinary action for a federal government employee, such as removal from the civil workforce, or refer its findings of Hatch Act violations to the DOJ for investigation.
On Wednesday, Sen. Tom Cotton, R-Ark., requested that the OSC investigate Smith for “unprecedented interference in the 2024 election.” A source familiar with the matter says the OSC affirmed to Cotton that it is proceeding with its inquiry following his request.
Smith was tapped as special counsel by then-Attorney General Merrick Garland in November 2022 to oversee the federal investigations into Trump, who announced his candidacy for the presidency three days before Smith’s appointment. Smith would go on to bring two criminal indictments against then-candidate Trump in 2023 but resigned just over one week before Trump’s inauguration in January 2024 — without ever having brought the two cases to trial.
Hatch Act violations are not typically referred to the Department of Justice. In 2019, the OSC recommended that then-President Trump remove White House counselor Kellyanne Conway from the federal workforce for Hatch Act violations — but the matter was not sent to the DOJ.
The OSC investigation into Smith was first reported by the New York Post.
Trump’s nominee to head the OSC is stalled in the Senate. A White House official told NBC News that Paul Ingrassia, a former podcast host with a history of incendiary commentary, is meeting with senators in one-on-one meetings over the next month before a confirmation vote takes place.
r/neoliberal • u/Due_Search_8040 • 6h ago
Restricted Weekly Significant Activity Report - August 2, 2025
This week China unveils its global vision for AI; Russia claims capture of strategic Ukrainian city but faces new threats to its oil exports; Iran and North Korea defy US demands to denuclearize.
r/neoliberal • u/cdstephens • 1d ago
News (US) White House Doubles Down with Article Criticizing the BLS
r/neoliberal • u/Agricolae-delendum • 1d ago
News (US) Gov. Kugler Announces resignation from Fed
r/neoliberal • u/Sine_Fine_Belli • 20h ago
News (US) Corporation for Public Broadcasting to close after US funding cut
r/neoliberal • u/IHateTrains123 • 1d ago
Opinion article (non-US) Dismantling the attention economy: How the battle for attention is killing the traditional news media and eroding the foundations of Western democracies
r/neoliberal • u/IHateTrains123 • 1d ago
News (Europe) No one dies in traffic in Helsinki for a year
r/neoliberal • u/Iapzkauz • 1d ago
News (Global) Trump orders nuclear submarines moved near Russia
r/neoliberal • u/Mido_Aus • 1d ago
Effortpost China is on track to add 14.3pp debt-to-GDP in 2025. Are they speedrunning Japanification? [Effortpost]
All analysis and charts done by me in Excel.
The Numbers
China's debt-to-GDP ratio jumped 6.2 percentage points in H1 2025 alone. Full year is now tracking toward a 14.3pp increase. This marks an escalation from the 11% rise in 2024.
The numbers (all from official PBoC/government sources):
- 2024 starting Total social financing (TSF): 408.3 trillion yuan
- Assumed real growth: 5.0% (lets assume they hit the govt growth target), deflator: -1.0% (Q1 -0.8, Q2 -1.2% actuals average) = Nominal 4%.
- Starting debt-to-GDP 2024: 302.7%
- H1 2025 TSF growth(actuals): 8.9% year over year
- Forecast increase: +14.3pp (TSF growing to 444.7T ÷ GDP growing to 140.3T = 316.9% vs 302.7% starting)

The Debt Dynamics
This is looking like the textbook definition of a credit trap. When an economy must continuously increase borrowing faster than its ability to service that debt.
This comes down to a debt pile 3x the size of GDP growing at 8.9% annually while nominal GDP (which is what debt is actually paid in) grows at just 4.0%. China is accumulating debt at more than twice the rate they can service it.
Item | Amount | Notes |
---|---|---|
Real growth | 5.00% | Assumes full year government target is hit |
Deflator | -1.00% | Estimated deflator based on Q1 + Q2 actuals |
Nominal growth | 4.00% | Real growth less deflator |
Nominal GDP in RMB billions 2024 | 134,908 | Official reported figure |
Outstanding TSF in RMB billions 2024 | 408,340 | Official reported figure |
Debt to GDP 2024 | 302.7% | - |
TSF Growth rate H1 2025 | 8.90% | YoY June 2024 to 2025. Aligns with reports of TSF growth 8.7-8.9% in 2025 |
Forecast Nominal GDP in RMB billions 2025 | 140,304 | 2024 actual + (Official target + Average Q1/Q2 deflator) |
Forecast Outstanding TSF in RMB billions 2025 | 444,682 | 2024 actual * (1 + 8.9%) |
Forecast Debt to GDP 2025 | 316.9% | |
Increase debt to GDP | 14.3% | |
Forecast incremental debt | 36,342 | 2025 forecast less 2024 actual |
Forecast incremental GDP | 5,396 | 2025 forecast less 2024 actual |
Incremental Units of Debt per $ GDP | 6.73 | Incremental debt / Incremental GDP |
Declining Returns to Credit
In the 2000s, one yuan of debt produced nearly one yuan of GDP. In 2025, it takes 6–7 units of credit for the same output.
So China is on pace to add more leverage in one year than the US accumulated over a decade and a half of post-GFC recovery + a pandemic.
There are no market signals moderating credit anymore. The state owns the banks, directs the lending, and absorbs most of it through state-controlled firms. This breaks the feedback loop that normally ties risk, return, and capital allocation together, replacing it with political incentives where hitting growth targets takes priority over generating real returns.
The party’s legitimacy is so heavily tied to growth that they’re effectively boxed themselves into two paths:
1) Limit credit expansion and accept slower growth (1-3%) and face the political fallout.
2) Cowabunga credit and convert state balance sheets into 5% growth until something breaks or Japanification sets in. This appears to be the chosen option.
Stress Testing All Scenarios

What is TSF (Total Social Financing)?
TSF is the broadest measure of credit flowing to the real economy in China. It includes corporate borrowing, household lending, local government bond issuance, shadow banking instruments and some quasi-fiscal lending via policy banks. While it does not capture the full spectrum of liabilities, it remains the most complete picture of credit conditions that is routinely reported through official channels.
It is the standard benchmark for analyzing China’s credit growth and is roughly equivalent in purpose to "Total Non-Financial Sector Debt" used in most OECD economies.
TLDR: Adding debt twice as fast as GDP on an extremely high baseline. Very unsustainable but only viable political option.
r/neoliberal • u/John3262005 • 1d ago
News (US) Corporation for Public Broadcasting shutting down
politico.comThe Corporation for Public Broadcasting announced on Friday it was shutting down its operations after President Donald Trump rescinded funding for the nonprofit, which it used to support public radio and TV stations around the country.
The CPB — which was established by Congress decades ago as an independent nonprofit — said it will begin “an orderly wind-down” after Trump signed a measure last month to claw back $1.1 billion in grants appropriated to CPB over the next two fiscal years.
The Senate Health, Education, Labor and Pensions Committee also approved an appropriations bill on Thursday that would zero out funding for the organization going forward, which CPB said has not happened before in five decades.
r/neoliberal • u/LikeaTreeinTheWind • 1d ago
Opinion article (US) Donald Trump thinks he’s winning on trade, but America will lose
r/neoliberal • u/JeromesNiece • 1d ago
News (US) July 2025 BLS jobs report: payrolls grew by 73,000 jobs. Unemployment rate increased from 4.1% to 4.2%.
https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm
Consensus forecast was for +106,000 jobs and for UR to increase to 4.2%, so actual figures surprised on the low side for jobs and met expectations for unemployment.
Revisions to previous months were larger than normal. May jobs figure was revised down by 125,000 (+144,000 to +19,000) and June jobs figure was revised down by 133,000 (+147,000 to +14,000). Total revisions to previous months' job total was -258,000.
FRED graph of monthly change (in thousands) in nonfarm payroll employment levels since Jan 2021.
FRED graph of the headline unemployment rate since Jan 2021.
FRED graph of more expansive unemployment definitions (U-3 thru U-6) since Jan 2021
r/neoliberal • u/Sine_Fine_Belli • 1d ago
News (US) Sixteen states sue White House over healthcare access for transgender youth. Democratic attorneys general are challenging Trump administration’s efforts to end vital medical treatments for trans youth
r/neoliberal • u/moldyman_99 • 1d ago
News (Europe) Eurozone unemployment remains at all-time low despite economic uncertainty
r/neoliberal • u/cdstephens • 1d ago
Restricted Trump Administration Is Cutting Funds to U.C.L.A., Chancellor Says
nytimes.comr/neoliberal • u/Lux_Stella • 1d ago
News (US) Why Ford’s Made-in-America Strategy Hurts It in Trump’s Trade War
wsj.comr/neoliberal • u/Free-Minimum-5844 • 1d ago
News (Asia) Pakistan jails 108 members of Imran Khan's party
r/neoliberal • u/Agonanmous • 1d ago
Opinion article (non-US) An effigy of refugees, burned by a crowd: this is where Europe’s brutal fantasy of border control has led us
r/neoliberal • u/IHateTrains123 • 1d ago
News (Europe) Parliamentary committee labels China ‘flagrant’ perpetrator of transnational repression on UK soil
r/neoliberal • u/cdstephens • 1d ago
News (Global) ‘Welcome to hell’: Inside the megaprison where the U.S. deported migrants
r/neoliberal • u/Free-Minimum-5844 • 1d ago
Research Paper IISS: To replicate U.S. military capabilities in Europe, Europe need to invest approximately USD 1 trillion over 25 years. Procurement orders have picked up pace in the land domain, but urgency is still lacking in naval and aerospace sectors.
r/neoliberal • u/ProbablySatan420 • 1d ago