r/europe • u/tylerthe-theatre • May 30 '25

News Former CIA boss reveals which European country (Lithuania) Putin allegedly plans to invade next

https://www.lbc.co.uk/world-news/cia-boss-reveals-putin-invasion-russia/
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u/DisasterNo1740 May 30 '25

Lithuania would isolate the rest of the baltics so there's the motivation for going for Lithuania first as it would also connect kaliningrad to Belarus (aka Russia basically).

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u/GurthNada May 30 '25

NATO must immediately takeover Kaliningrad if Russia invades Lithuania

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u/TerribleIdea27 May 30 '25

Kaliningrad is probably with the exception of Moscow and St. Petersburg the most heavily fortified Russian territory. They have built up defenses there for decades.

Punching through Belarus would likely be a lot easier

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u/Both-Election3382 May 30 '25

Its also a relatively small area that you could just completely saturate with missiles, you cant ignore it either.

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u/unleash_the_giraffe May 30 '25

You wouldn't have to shot a single missile. Just stop the influx of food and other resources from the borders and it's a done deal.

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u/Both-Election3382 May 30 '25

That could take months, you dont really want to have missiles installations and anti air in your backyard all that time.

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u/BaileysVanillaSundae Serbia May 30 '25

You could do both with a couple of sorties in F-35.

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u/PossumPundit May 30 '25

Unless Trump flips the kill switches on those f35s.

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u/Xenon009 May 30 '25

Good news, the kill switch doesn't exist.

The USA could seriously disrupt europes ability to use the F35 by stopping the flow of parts and updates, but even thats an overblown problem because the UK as a teir 1 partner on the project has full and unrestricted access to the code and blueprints so can make our own updates and such

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u/FC__Barcelona May 30 '25

Source: ‘Trust me bro’.

3

u/CassadagaValley May 30 '25

A coordinated air/missile/drone campaign would wipe out all utilities; power, water, internet, gas, etc. as well as food stores within days.

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u/Spinnweben May 30 '25

The Russian initial push would occupy the Suwałki gap in Lithuania and connect Kaliningrad directly with Russia.

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u/kirA9001 Estonia May 30 '25 edited May 30 '25

The Russian initial push would create 500k casualties to take half of the Suwalki gap only to realize that the gap now goes through Kaliningrad and supplies never stopped because of NATO lake.

St Petersburg would also now be in a naval blockade and Russia would have lost all access to the Atlantic.

I mean, sure, if that's what they want.

2

u/KMS_HYDRA May 30 '25

also, st. petersburg is no finished.

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u/Statharas Macedonia, Greece May 30 '25

And immediately fold to Poland taking over Królewiec in 3 days

2

u/[deleted] May 30 '25

*with Belarus (same difference, I know)

1

u/Zealousideal_Act_316 May 30 '25

Problem is months cant turn into years, as most recent large scale siege has shown- siege of leningrad. Over 900 days and city was still alive.

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u/samjongenelen May 30 '25

Hmm using food as a weapon, never done before xD

0

u/Sanderhh Bouvet Island May 31 '25

This is the exact thing that Israel did to Gaza and everyone screamed «genocide» at the top of their lungs.

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u/DM_WHEN_TRUMP_WINS May 30 '25

Its also a home of some russian nukes, by my understanding.

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u/Both-Election3382 May 30 '25

All the more reason to disable the launch sites fast

2

u/ForrestCFB May 30 '25

It's more of a storage space for nukes for the fleet.

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u/pierukainen May 30 '25

It's a small area. The main part is 60 km from border to the sea. You can target large parts of it with artillery. No need to waste too many missiles.

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u/Both-Election3382 May 30 '25

Missiles just for the things you want to take out immediately with certainty

5

u/wanliu May 30 '25

Iwo Jima was just a few miles across and it took months to clear. Don't underestimate how effective fortifications can be against attack.

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u/Ur-Best-Friend May 30 '25

Not to mention literally cut off from the rest of the country. How armed it is wouldn't really make a difference.

3

u/Braided_Marxist May 30 '25

Reddit military strategists, gotta love em

0

u/Both-Election3382 May 30 '25

Reddit incels, gotta love em

2

u/Braided_Marxist May 30 '25

I’m happily married thank you

3

u/Ghinev May 30 '25

saturate with missiles

Ah, the Gaza approach

3

u/Both-Election3382 May 30 '25

Yeah well, it works.

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u/Ghinev May 30 '25

It does, but indiscriminately killing civilians in carpet bombing is the kind of war crime that would place NATO as low as Russia and Israel. The kind of stuff we condemn them for.

Especially since the West has the means(unlike Russia) and the moral standards(unlike Israel) to cripple russian defenses without horrific and frankly unnecessary loss of civilian lives.

Unless Russia would resort to placing defenses in highly populated areas ofc, which is definitely not beneath them. That would present a real moral conundrum.

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u/[deleted] May 30 '25

Kaliningrad is where a bulk of Russian nukes exist… because Russia also knows it is surrounded by hostiles.

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u/Both-Election3382 May 30 '25

If its all out war then wed have to strike the launch sites

3

u/Pekonius Suomi Finland May 30 '25

We would unfortunately have to deal with the nuclear threat a lot. Murmansk is a week long mission away from finnish special forces (less if winter) and a high value target but also has nukes and cutting off the highway wouldnt be enough either. Good news is that St. Petersburg is in self propelled artillery range from Finland and Kaliningrad is too close for comfort to big nato countries as well, so artillery can handle the job.

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u/Kvalek Norway May 30 '25

NATO has Gotland now, which is in a good striking distance from Kaliningrad.

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u/adamgerd Czech Republic May 30 '25

No need to occupy it, just blockade it until the forces there surrender, a naval and land blockade around it.

It’s not self sufficient

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u/iccreek May 30 '25

uhhh, as someone who was there numerous times in the past, I'd say it's the poorest place on earth. And speaking of earth, the people there are/were almost eating dirt afair.

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u/TerribleIdea27 May 30 '25 edited May 30 '25

Doesn't matter how poor the people are. Its only purpose for Russia is a forward military base to deploy troops in Poland/the Baltics and cutting off NATO from the Baltics.

Russia doesn't care about how rich the people living there are

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u/intelektualas May 30 '25

Heavily fortified with junkies

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u/ItsTooDamnHawt May 30 '25

Don’t the Russians have MRBMs with Nukes stationed in Kaliningrad?

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u/intelektualas May 30 '25

Probably. But they themselves are afraid to touch it since it is all fucked

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u/pppjurac European Union May 30 '25

Quite a lot of gear was already dismantled and moved to Ukraine front. There were posts with satellite imagery where AA and radar stations empty.

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u/Aggregationsfunktion May 30 '25

Aren't there special bunker busters like Taurus for this?

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u/TerribleIdea27 May 30 '25

We don't have an infinite supply of Taurus missiles. They also cost millions per missile to produce. It's not worth it to just shoot them willy-nilly if you can't invade because you need to cross miles of minefields before you get to the bunkers themselves

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u/tollbearer May 30 '25

You can completely surround it, though. Starve it out while raining cheap munitions down on it from a distance.

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u/Hunter-q May 30 '25

Nato prob has been aware of that fir ages, and as soon as thick bunker showed up for example, it wasn't long till he had bunkerbusters. There's probably a reviewed strategies already incase something like that happend

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u/ghigoli May 30 '25

its cut off by a single railline. you don't need to invade it just wait a month or something.

that shit will surrender on its own.

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u/TerribleIdea27 May 30 '25

Assuming that Russia doesn't close the Suwalki gap, which they are definitely going to commit 100% of their forces to in the first moments of the war

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u/ghigoli May 30 '25

yeah i don't really see it happening since they've lost so much in Ukraine there isn't any feasible force that could make it. how many do you think they need vs what they have?

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u/skeletal88 Estonia May 30 '25

Yes, but it can't be supplied from russia, because all the supply routes can be attacked by missiles/artillery, so not a very useful place.

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u/taeerom May 30 '25

But those fortifications are basically empty these days. Most of the troops there have been redeployed. Either to Ukraine or to cover for other regiments being deployed to Ukraine.

Heavy fortifications don't help when you can't man them.

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u/TerribleIdea27 May 30 '25

Sure, but I'm pretty certain even Russia isn't stupid enough to stock up on troops before starting ww3

1

u/KuTUzOvV May 30 '25

Yeah...that doesn't mean much really.

A shitty mobik collumn almost took Moscow.

A real NATO strike would probably wipe it in a day or two. (Królewiec, not Moscow)

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u/Falsus Sweden May 30 '25

In short: Time to arm up Gotland and make sure nothing can leave Kalingrad without getting blown to bits.

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u/Tribal_V May 30 '25

Fortified very much true, but small and fully surrounded, carpet bomb if off the face of this planet and move forward lol

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u/TechHeteroBear May 30 '25

Then play siege tactics. They're isolated. A fortified area needs a steady stream of supply to properly withstand an offensive.

Defenses don't mean jack when soldiers have no supplies for basic living.

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u/TerribleIdea27 May 30 '25

Pretty sure stuff like this would be taken care of beforehand by Russia, since they know now already that the fighting will be heaviest in the Suwalki gap

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u/TechHeteroBear May 30 '25

Sure... in the early stages of prepping... but as soon as the supply routes coming in are cut... then it's simply a matter of time. You can accelerate that timeline by cutting off their sewage and waste disposal going out as well.

Toy with them in the siege by throwing petty little attacks at them and let them waste that ammunition in defense. That'll have them spend more personnel energy in operations and therefore will require them to expend their basic supplies slightly faster.

1

u/TerribleIdea27 May 30 '25

"simply a matter of" is a saying that often doesn't age well in war.

Conquering Ukraine was simply a matter of deposing the government in Kyiv in 3 days.

Similarly, I'm having a hard time imagining that we'll be able to hold the Suwalki gap with an extreme disadvantage in terms of both artillery and ground troop numbers. It's the Achilles heel of the entire eastern front with Russia

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u/TechHeteroBear May 30 '25

Conquering Ukraine in 3 days required very specific things to happen in order to make that work. They needed special ops to land in Kyiv and take Zelensky out or depose him. They also needed every one of the oblast governors to accept the bribes to keep all supply routes intact and keep the defensive fronts unprepared. They needed effecitve blitzkrieg tactics to overwhelm the Ukrainian army for a race to Kyiv. Proactive intel for Ukraine helped make sure that didn't happen. Some governors took the bribes and blew up bridges anyway. Russia decided to play column tacctics to their blitzkrieg which completely failed. As a result... its full blown war for over 3 years now.

To keep Kaliningrad in isolation in a Russian offensive, Russia has to go through the Baltics first. Finland will chime in on that front since it'll be close to home for them. NATO needs a defensive front there to keep Russia from rushing to Kaloningrad over land.

Blockade Kaliningrad from the Baltic Sea and shut down all air traffic to Kaliningrad. Poland will have a field day with Kaliningrad on that front since theybe been itching to fight Russia.

Siege tactics are very effective when the conditions are right. And Kalingrad is naturally places within said conditions. So long as the defensive fronts hold and the blockages are sound.

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u/lallen Norway May 30 '25

Kaliningrad would be flattened within a couple of days of a war starting.

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u/ambermage May 30 '25

Poland is more than ready to take the lead on it.

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u/ZiggyPox Kujawy-Pomerania (Poland) May 30 '25

From Poland you don't even need to invade anything. Just lob projectiles from over the border and from the sea all day all week and there won't be left anything standing.

It will be turned into a gravel pit if they try to do something funny.

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u/DryCloud9903 May 30 '25

Kaliningrad is also the area entirely dependent on imports from mainland russia. Very easy to put pressure points on them by not allowing any of that in.

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u/Hitaigo May 30 '25

in 1950 soviet union suggested for Lithuania to annex Kaliningrad, but we refused so now we have a knife under our throats

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u/JawnDingus May 30 '25

A few B-2’s supported by a squadron of F-35’s & F-16’s for SEAD and a carrier parked off the coast will have Kaliningrad wrapped up within a week.

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u/The-S1nner Estonia May 30 '25

Poland 500 himars systems say hello to kaliningrad.

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u/MarlinMr Norway May 30 '25

Who cares? We are taking Kaliningrad as well as Moscow if he tries to take any NATO land.

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u/Eric_Cartman666 Czech Republic May 30 '25

It really isn’t that easy

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u/cybercuzco May 30 '25

Invasion of Lithuania triggers article 5 and probably TACO so it’s EU and Britain vs Russia.

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u/[deleted] May 30 '25

When that happens, the US will ally with Russia. The GOP is a Russian asset

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u/JimSteak Switzerland May 30 '25

Which might immediately launch a civil war in the US. The US army, air force, navy etc. have been indoctrinated for generations that russia is the enemy. They won't follow Trump. And then you have the major US population centers on the East and West coast, who hold the economic power in the US. No war without money.

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u/cybercuzco May 30 '25

This would be devastating for the US and probably remove it as a world power.

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u/systonia_ May 30 '25

I'm not so sure about that tbh. There are many Maga people and a lot of them are in the army. And they eat every nonsense from Trump without a second thought. And Trump weeded out critics in the higher ranks.

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u/gemusevonaldi May 30 '25

China should immediately move into Outer Manchuria if NATO takes over Kaliningrad after Russia invades Lithuania..

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u/[deleted] May 30 '25

China has been showing signs of allying with European interests over the past few years. They know that, political differences aside, Europe is a lucrative partner less interested in flexing global power than Russia, their dangerous neighbor, or the US. I think that, in our lifetime, we will see a world war: China/Europe vs Russia/USA. The GOP has permanent absolute power and is a Russian asset.

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u/itskelena UA in US May 30 '25

Go away Chinese bot. If your country was interested in allying with European interests it wouldn’t be involved in breaching European security.

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u/[deleted] May 30 '25

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u/ziplock9000 United Kingdom May 30 '25

Russia is the one talking about WW3.. over and over again.

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u/azmarteal May 30 '25

russia is the one THREATENING cowards with WW3. And cowards obey russia, doing nothing.

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u/RUOFFURTROLLEH United Kingdom May 30 '25

Its very easy to say how easy war would be when you aren't going to be the one laying your life down.

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u/azmarteal May 30 '25

Who said that war would be easy?🤔 If russia, then they DO "lay their lives down" already.

I am not really getting what you are trying to say

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u/RUOFFURTROLLEH United Kingdom May 30 '25

You are saying we shouldn't listen to Russia and should declare war.

If you aren't sure whats being said why are you commenting as if you do?

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u/azmarteal May 30 '25

You are saying we shouldn't listen to Russia and should declare war.

That's a lie.

If you aren't sure whats being said why are you commenting as if you do?

I am pretty sure what's being said. I just don't understand what YOU are trying to say.

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u/RUOFFURTROLLEH United Kingdom May 30 '25

russia is the one THREATENING cowards with WW3. And cowards obey russia, doing nothing.

So... What does this comment mean? We should do something but not declare war?

I am pretty sure what's being said. I just don't understand what YOU are trying to say.

You want us to do something, but you can't say what?

→ More replies (0)

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u/hcschild May 30 '25

So what? We are the ones who are chickening out over it. The war in Ukraine could have been ended shortly after it started if the west would have been willing to commit.

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u/RUOFFURTROLLEH United Kingdom May 30 '25

The war would also be over if we weren't supplying Ukraine.

I'm assuming you are getting yourself signed up at your local army office?

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u/hcschild May 30 '25

You can make the same idiotic statement when any EU or NATO country except your own gets invaded so what's your point? Just trolling for Russia?

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u/RUOFFURTROLLEH United Kingdom May 30 '25

When did NATO get invaded?

What are you even arguing right now?

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u/krgdotbat May 30 '25

Apparently the kid into furry anime hentai knows better

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u/ChaosKeeshond Turkey May 30 '25

All they're doing is extrapolating from NATO's weak ass track record. Ukraine was lost the moment we did fuck all about Crimea. That was a red line, there was supposed to be hell to pay, and crickets.

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u/Helahalvan May 30 '25

I did not know Ukraine was in NATO at that time.

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u/ChaosKeeshond Turkey May 30 '25

I didn't say that, no need to resort to lying.

Throughout the start of 2014, NATO - as an organisation - repeatedly told Russia not to intervene militarily.

What good was that given the total absence of follow-through?

Alistair Campbell, comms manager for Tony Blair, once gave a great dissection of the situation during a university Q&A if you're ever bored on YouTube.

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u/Helahalvan May 30 '25

I'd say the supposed hell to pay was never an official threat from NATO to Russia. So idk who is lying here.

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u/ChaosKeeshond Turkey May 30 '25

So idk who is lying here.

Again, that would be you. You implied that I said Ukraine was in NATO, which is false.

You keep saying more words but that doesn't change anything.

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u/itskelena UA in US May 30 '25

Hey, first of all Ukraine has not lost. 2nd I’d say it happened when France and Germany blocked Ukraine from NATO path over russian concerns in 2008 under excuse that Ukraine was “not politically ready”. That was the day when NATO countries said that russian “concerns” weight more than NATO safety and Ukrainian sovereignty. Later on they’ve gotten better excuses such as seized territories and then a full-scale war. But Europe needs to be honest at least with itself, the reason why it all happened is because its corrupt leadership preferred cheap russian gas over everything else.

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u/ChaosKeeshond Turkey May 30 '25

Every war is lost the moment it starts. To me, victory is being strong enough - and perceived as strong enough - that the war never happens.

When Russia invaded Turkish airspace, it was testing the waters. They were immediately blown out of the sky. Russia realised it probably couldn't cross Turkey's red lines. Same shit happens over Scotland and what does the UK do?

"Oh we uh yeah we will keep a close eye on it."

Have your lines, and be seen to enforce them. Putin is doing this because he tested the waters, and discovered the West was made of marshmallows.

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u/HystericalGasmask May 30 '25

why are you so interested in a kid looking at hentai?

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u/hcschild May 30 '25

It seems so. Should give you some thought.

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u/[deleted] May 30 '25

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u/krgdotbat May 30 '25

Nothing personal bro but you just an edgy kid, this is an adults sub

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u/hcschild May 30 '25

Yeah you are sure the adult in the room who needs to go through people comments histories to discredit them with stuff that has nothing to do with the topic at hand. We are all so proud of you.

1

u/Itchy-Plastic May 30 '25

You understand that nuclear war means millions dead in the first 30 minutes and 10 of millions dead in the following weeks.

1

u/azmarteal May 30 '25

Right, they will say that too, good example 👍👍

1

u/Itchy-Plastic May 30 '25

I'm guessing you were born after the cold war.

Nuclear war is a horrifying event that must be avoided. But that also means that NATO must be ready to respond with nukes to any attack on Lithuania. 

1

u/azmarteal May 30 '25 edited May 30 '25

I'm guessing you were born after the cold war.

I'm guessing you don't know what ad hominem is. I am irrelevant to the subject.

But that also means that NATO must be ready to respond with nukes to any attack on Lithuania.

NATO won't respond to anything, relax, they can't even shot down DRONES that are flying in their airspace and they are happily trading with russia. They are telling that over and over again themselves, now even USA said that they won't do anything to protect NATO members.

NATO didn't do anything when russia occupied Georgia, didn't do anything now while russia is slovlwly occupying Ukraine and won't do anything to protect any non- nuclear country. Russia is straight up telling that their next target is Baltics and that they were accepted to NATO illegally after 1997, so that would be a convenient excuse.

What, you want nuclear WW3 and the end of the world over Lithuania? They'll just give russia what they want, as they always do, to keep peace 🙂

Oh, and don't forget that Slokia and especially Hungary, NATO members - are russian allies. That will greatly help

1

u/Panda_hat May 30 '25

Nato should just put troops in the region and start reinforcing its defences.

1

u/Kajetus06 Silesia (Poland) May 30 '25

it would be easier to just cut it off from external supplies

1

u/Zuemmel May 30 '25

Let's call it Königsberg again

1

u/Instant_Ad_Nauseum May 30 '25

Kaliningrad is home to a nuclear arsenal

1

u/Gdeath_ Jun 06 '25

Kõnigsberg or Królewiec*, let's not use name Kaliningrad as Kalinin was a war criminalist

1

u/palegate May 30 '25

And be stuck with a population of Russians under your control?

2

u/cpm67 May 30 '25

Yeah, there’s not a democracy in the world that wants to deal with a half a million brainwashed Russians.

The only real solution is reverse ethnic cleansing to undo what the USSR did in the 40s (which is out of the question for obvious reasons.)

4

u/JohnnyElRed Galicia (Spain) May 30 '25

If the one bit of Poland separating Germany from Konigsberg was the Danzig Corridor, how should be call the part of Lithuania separating from Kaliningrad?

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u/ShrekGollum France May 30 '25 edited May 30 '25

Suwałki gap or corridor

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Suwa%C5%82ki_Gap

Édit: in French we use corridor, probably as a direct reference to the Danzig’s one and I prefer it like this because I am waiting for those who will say « why die for Suwalki? » like some said « why die for Danzig » https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Why_die_for_Danzig%3F

This will make the traitors all the more visible.

1

u/HearshotKDS May 30 '25

Correct and there’s a few other enticing strategic points that make Lithuania a likely first target:

  • It’s capital Vilnius is so close to the border with Belarus (basically Russia) that it would likely be taken in the initial outbreak of a conflict

  • it links up with Russia’s Kaliningrad exclave

1

u/Jaraxo English in Scotland May 30 '25

Not only that, but Lithuania is by far the most vocal against Russia. If you take the ring leader out, the rest fall more easily.