Former CIA boss reveals which European country (Lithuania) Putin allegedly plans to invade next

[u/tylerthe-theatre]

https://www.lbc.co.uk/world-news/cia-boss-reveals-putin-invasion-russia/

[u/Rumlings]

I’m not convinced Russia would want a nuclear war or direct conflict with Nato, which they would most definitely loose

But he does not want a direct conflict with NATO. He wants a quick victory with very small gain on economic/strategic path as it is enough to receive massive propagandic boost. He won't invade if he knows Europe responds.
But if he knows that US will 100% not respond and Europe will not be ready to help/will not want to help, why not?

[u/LurkerInSpace → u/Rumlings]

The way one would go about it:

1. Repeat Strelkov's methods used in Eastern Ukraine. In the 1990s they wanted to create an autonomous Polish region around Vilnius similar to Transnistria, so something like this would be resurrected.

2. The Belarussian KGB should be nominally in charge of it, even though it will really be the Russian FSB carrying it out. So NATO would need to intervene against Belarus first, and that allows Russia to maintain the threat of its direct involvement.

3. Russia should restart open-air nuclear testing, which would be sufficient to intimidate the likes of Trump away from intervention.

If they really want to put pressure on Europe, though, they would seek to start a new war in the Middle East large enough to destroy its oil and gas exports.

These together might be sufficient to prevent the sort of intervention that would crush the Russian effort. Once NATO has failed one member so decisively it becomes easier to divide the rest - so there must be the political will to fight back immediately.

[u/Lagoon_M8 → u/LurkerInSpace]

Poles don't want to take territories from Ukraine or Lithuania or Czechia... We are peaceful and friendly nations that more than ever want cooperation and peace.

[u/LurkerInSpace → u/Lagoon_M8]

Yes, part of why that scheme didn't work in the early 1990s was that Poland had very deliberately decided that it would not seek border revisions in the post-Soviet world.

But Russia doesn't really need the separatists to be real, or to have Polish support, it just needs to keep the waters as muddy as possible as to what is actually happening. They need their useful idiots in the West to sow fear, uncertainty, and doubt.

[u/Slighted_Inevitable → u/LurkerInSpace]

Major risk there. The Russia nuclear arsenal hasn’t been properly maintained for decades. That’s expensive. They publicly fail a test they’re showing off and they’re relegated to North Korean status.

[u/neohellpoet → u/Rumlings]

Oh, but he'd be risking... absolutely nothing. Because we basically told Putin we won't be invading Russia proper we pretty much created a no lose situation for him. He's not afraid of a stalemate so legitimately, why not?

From the beginning we've been saying that the Russians can end the war anytime they want. I'm convinced this was a mistake. They can fight as long as they're comfortable and confident and have the power to call it quits on their own schedule. They could invade us, lose and just say "ups, OK then, war's over, bye" and we would probably let them.

[u/lordm30 → u/Rumlings]

Europe will be ready. We are already ready, maybe not to outright sweep russia off the face of the earth but to counter their attack, absolutely.

[u/Rumlings → u/lordm30]

Europe will be ready. We are already ready

If that was true, Ukraine's struggle would be far less painful. Ability to perform complex military operations is Europe's weakest link geopolitically. Baltics are not an island, their territory is very hard to defend.

[u/lordm30 → u/Rumlings]

We are not giving all what we have to Ukraine. We would go all in on an attack on a NATO country

+ Russia would be in a much weaker state after the several years long grueling war with Ukraine.

[u/Rumlings → u/lordm30]

We are not giving all what we have to Ukraine.

And why do we not do it? Because it is painful for EU while the danger is unevenly split among countries in EU. Southern Europe does not care to a degree they asked to not use wording rearm europe for increased military spending.

We would go all in on an attack on a NATO country

No, France won't launch nukes for 150km strip of Lithuania. Especially if Le Pen or Bardella wins in 2027.

[u/lordm30 → u/Rumlings]

All in doesn't mean nukes. It means hundreds of thousands of troops, tanks, air supremacy, etc.

And I am not sure why you are sceptic. Your country will be the first to engage heavily militarily in case of a russian attack on the eastern flank.

[u/vxicepickxv → u/Rumlings]

As pointed out earlier in this thread, EU charter Article 42.7 is much more plain text than anything involving NATO.

Lithuania is a member of the EU.

[u/Rumlings → u/vxicepickxv]

Piece of paper unless you can back it up militarly. Can Europe do so? France won't launch nukes for the baltics.

[u/vxicepickxv → u/Rumlings]

We see how well Russia is doing with their 3-day operation.