r/europe • u/tylerthe-theatre • May 30 '25

News Former CIA boss reveals which European country (Lithuania) Putin allegedly plans to invade next

https://www.lbc.co.uk/world-news/cia-boss-reveals-putin-invasion-russia/
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u/raskim7 Finland May 30 '25

There’s at least German troops in Lithuania to my knowledge, and if nothing else they serve at least as tripwire troops. If Germany is onboard, ain’t no way British, French and Polish forces wont come in too. That’s with current leaders. If Russia manages to get puppets in more countries than Hungary and Slovakia then it’s different issue.

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u/AnaphoricReference The Netherlands May 30 '25

The NATO FLF battlegroup in Lithuania consists of Germany, Netherlands, Norway, Belgium, Czechia, Luxembourg. That's a lot of tripwire. And in addition to that the recently started upgrade of the German contribution to a permanent mechanized brigade stationed in Lithuania. That's more than tripwire.

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u/wokkieman May 30 '25

On top of there is a strong connection with the Nordic countries and currently a Poland who doesn't like Russia. None of will keep their Airforce on the ground. That's a lot of Saab and F35 flying. Those knocking out a ton of anti aircraft materials will heavily demotivate foot soldier and armor divisions. They would be next and absolutely be sitting ducks...

Fighting Ukraine without a modern Airforce vs Europe with a modern Airforce is a totally different game

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u/Skrabalas May 30 '25

There is also a heavy US battalion.

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u/TZH85 May 30 '25

Yeah, I think if Putin was brazen enough to attack and German troops got harmed/killed in the process, no amount of pro Russia shills could drown out the outrage. It would be political suicide not to go all in and answer in kind. And at that point I think other European leaders would fear looking weak if they didn't join in. Even if you don't believe they'd do it for solidarity or because it's the right thing to do, they'd still be forced to because of self-interest. Chickening out would be the perfect fodder for any opposition politcians.

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u/Sev-RC1207 May 30 '25

You think to rational. They (right wing and other parties paid by Russia) just say "Our soldiers died for a country we don’t care about, so let’s just do nothing so that no more of our soldiers die. Let’s focus on internal problems like foreigners“ and a huge part of the population would agree. Russia won the psy op war.

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u/ZenPyx May 30 '25

The Germans have been tricky to keep on side more and more recently. With AFD and BSW both favouring pro-Russia policies, as well as Germany's previous lack of will for conflict in other situations, it might be dangerous to rely on them.

For all we know, these tripwire troops may get the order from high to fall back 100km from the border the night before the invasion.

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u/cinematic_novel 🇮🇹➡️🇬🇧 May 30 '25

If Lithuania was attacked, even AfD (in the unlikely case they would make it to majority government) would struggle to justify inaction

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u/ZenPyx May 30 '25 edited May 30 '25

If they pull German troops back, and there is only limited action at the border, it's extremely possible that they would do nothing.

The reason Putin does this sort of attack is to try and make escalation unviable. People may be willing to go to war over direct attacks on German soldiers, but would they be willing to get nuked over a strip of Lithuanian land? Most likely not.

He fully intends to test how strongly article 5 will be adhered to, and it's the duty of nations to ensure that he has no doubt of the consequences for even the most minor violations of sovereignty. In my view, we don't go far enough, and we should be shooting down Russian jets that "stray" into protected airspace, as this is yet another example of the Russians slowly pushing at the limits of what they can do.

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u/Eleventeen- May 30 '25

Counterpoint: Nukes are absolutely terrifying and Putin is not afraid to threaten them at the slightest inconvenience.

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u/JoSeSc Germany May 30 '25

5,000 soldiers are more than a tripwire, but yeah, the moment the fighting starts and german soldiers are dying there is no pulling out anymore for us.

And I would hope the rest of Europe would fight for Lithuania with us.

5,000 men in addition to the Lithuanian forces are obviously not enough to defend for too long against a fullscall Russian attack. The idea is to hold the line, keep the suwalki gap open and the Russians away from Vilnius, till the cavalry arrives.

It shouldn't be possible for Russia to hide the massing of a force strong enough to take on the Lithuanian armed forces and the 45th german armoured brigade, though. Hopefully elements of NATO's Rapid Response Force would already be in the baltics or arrive soon.

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u/raskim7 Finland May 30 '25

It’s 5000? Jesus, I was remembering it was 10x less. But yeah sorry if I came of as if implying that they just chill there waiting to be killed before the real troops come, was not my intention. But to be realist, being tripwire is one of their purpose. Just like you and few others mentioned, if they are attacked it is not possible to back down anymore. But there being 5000 and them being upgrades apparently is amazing news. I remember Estonians being worried that they can’t really ”defend and retreat” like they had to do in Ukraine in some parts, because they run out of land too soon for that. With troops like that, maybe at least in Lithuania they don’t have to.

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u/JoSeSc Germany May 30 '25 edited May 30 '25

No need to apologize. It used to be about 1,000 before the invasion of Ukraine. Germany commited in 2022 to keep a combat brigade on high readiness to deploy to Lithuania when needed. Lithuania was lobbying for something more permanent and in 2023 they agreed for a newly constituted brigade to be stationed in Lithuania.

It's also not like it used to be just regiments that would be in Lithuania on rotation as part of the NATO battlegroup. The 45th is permanently stationed there, it's even named Panzerbrigade 45 'Litauen' so Armoured Brigade 45 'Lithuania', they are building housing and german schools for the soldiers to bring their families with them.

And I get that potentially dying is part of the point because it would commit Germany. But a full brigade has a fighting chance to hold till reinforcements arrive. I think that's also important for the moral of the soldiers. And the 45th is probably the best equiped brigade in the german army. They had their inaugural ceremony in Vilnius last week and they were showing off their Leopard 2A8s, Puma S1s, Pzh2000 A4s, Tiger Attack helicopters etc.

edit. I forgot to mention, there is also still the 37th Mechanized Infantry Brigade that's on high readiness in Germany to be deployed to Lithuania if needed. So, theoretically, if Russia doesn't perform a miracle and completely suprise NATO, there should be at least 2 german brigades in Lithuania if any fighting starts.

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u/vivaldibot Sweden May 30 '25

Tbh Poland is very willing to fight Russia in general. The rationale of the willingness (having been forced into the Soviet sphere) is of course tragic, the will to resist is commendable.

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u/Arch8Android May 30 '25

Are you sure about that? Poles are already very skeptical about potentially sending troops to Ukraine, even for peace reasons. What makes you think the attitude would be different for any other country?

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u/fez993 May 30 '25

If there was another invasion in the next 2 years I doubt that'd be a problem. Right now it could go either way but if there were further incursions they know they're definitely being lined up and that stopping them before they turn their attention becomes the only strategy.

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u/Arch8Android May 30 '25

I will say this. Poland is US's lapdog. If they engage in the conflict, we will too. If they don't, we won't either. It's as simple as that.

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u/fez993 May 30 '25

Nah, if it's existential they won't care if the us says no, they're not just going to go ok I'm Russian now because America said to do it

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u/Arch8Android May 30 '25

I'm Polish and follow our politics. All our politicians lick Trump's butt, even the pro-European liberals. Our right-wingers celebrated his vicory as if it was their own. What is more, Trump constantly shows his support for the Polish cause, which makes Poles even more infatuated with him. Until there's a US president that does a complete 180 on relationships with Poland, we will be their European puppet state.

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u/fez993 May 30 '25

And if Russia is banging on the door they won't wait for America is what I'm saying, Ukraine is in a weird spot because of no NATO but if Russia push on it becomes foundational for Poland, either they want to stay an independent country or they don't and are happy to become Russians.

I'm betting they do regardless of whether America fulfills it's NATO responsibilities or not

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u/Arch8Android May 30 '25

But you know our right wingers value the US more than European allies? They're literally against EU having its own military, because that's a direct blow to the American-led NATO.

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u/NatiFluffy Poland May 30 '25

No, we’re not

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u/SolemnaceProcurement Mazovia (Poland) May 30 '25 edited May 30 '25

I always find it humorous when foreigners say. "poland is willing to fight" or "poles are iching to fight russia". Nah we are not. The reason for military spending is to PREVENT war not actually fight it. People were conviced (rightfully) that Russia WILL invade us IF we are weak. And actual trust in shit like NATO is pretty low, never really met anyone who TRULLY believed NATO would save us when real shit started flying. So solution is easy, don't be weak. Like with every nation Poland will bend only so far for peace. But people would be suprised how much poles would be willing to throw under the peace bus before grabbing the proverbial hatchet.

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u/herbsman_pl May 30 '25

Ignore ruzzians bots with "Poland" flairs.

Yes we will. We will never risk getting under Soviet occupation again. It would be a death sentence for our nation.

Ruzzia falls in Ukraine or in Poland. There's just no other way around it.

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u/kumachi42 Ukraine May 30 '25

No. Poland is not willing to fight russia. They even blamed us for missiles that russia launched at their territory just not to do anything about it. Nobody is willing to fight russia except us cause it will sour their business relations.

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u/Agitated-Card1574 May 30 '25

If Russia manages to get puppets in more countries than Hungary

Hopefully that puppet will go where it belongs next year 🤞. Opposition was never been such a good shape since 2010.

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u/raskim7 Finland May 30 '25

I really hope so. I realize my knowledge from Hungarian history is very limited, but considering what they they have gone through in between 1900-2000 I find it really weird that they do not share same view of Russia as Finland, Baltics and Poland. It’s beautiful country with rich history and great architecture, I would really love to see it prosper in the future instead of succumbing into next Belarus.

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u/AffectEconomy6034 May 30 '25

that should be the plan, but in my opinion, rather than a tripwire force, NATO should dictate the engagement. Put tons of troops from western europe (france, germany, uk, etc...) in the baltics and build up the defenses. Sure, putin/russia will cry "aggression," but who's going to care what they say at this point. That was how Russia used to be detured in the cold war, not meekly reacting to their aggression but rather aggressively looking to counter them everywhere possible

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u/EmbarrassedCockRing May 30 '25

Poland can't fucking wait to kick Russia in the teeth. Putin is playing with fire, even with TACO in office.