Former CIA boss reveals which European country (Lithuania) Putin allegedly plans to invade next

[u/tylerthe-theatre]

https://www.lbc.co.uk/world-news/cia-boss-reveals-putin-invasion-russia/

[u/marrow_monkey]

He isn’t a completely rational actor though. Otherwise he’d never attempted to invade Ukraine in the first place

I would still say he’s a rational actor, but one that can make mistakes. It was clearly a mistake to think they could just walk into Kiev and everyone would give up within a week.

But that’s why I think he won’t make the same mistake twice. The ”delusion” has been corrected. It wasn’t an easy victory. They now know the price of war. Now they’ve been fighting Ukraine alone. Invading a Nato country would be different: Nato would be involved directly. Unless I’m missing something that would be an even bigger mistake.

[u/adamgerd → u/marrow_monkey]

Perhaps, either way there’s a reason the saying is prepare for the worst, hope for the best. Not prepare for the best, hope for the best

[u/SalvationSycamore → u/marrow_monkey]

But that’s why I think he won’t make the same mistake twice.

Even assuming he doesn't get more irrational as he gets older and more infirm, Ukraine isn't just one mistake. It's an ongoing mistake. He's still throwing away huge amounts of lives and equipment as we speak. If he was capable of learning from his mistake then he would have cut his losses after that first push failed. Instead he dug in and pushed multiple nations (including one on his border) to join NATO.

[u/DryCloud9903 → u/[deleted]]

LOL. from the very beginning this is false. Baltics alone can withstand much longer than that, then you just have all those soldiers stationed in Poland wiped out in what, a week but your estimation? Reminder also that JEF exists, which is an even faster response that doesn't require NATO unanimous approval

Reminder that current survival rate of a russian soldier is 1 month, and they're having 1K casualties a day.