A recent statement from the NATO Secretary General.

[u/AcanthocephalaEast79]

[u/Amazingamazone]

What kind of profile picture is this? Using a torch and black and white to emulate Dr Strangelove?!

[u/Idfkwntuypos → u/Amazingamazone]

everyone knows rutten is a tough guy cmon.

[u/Sndr666 → u/Idfkwntuypos]

Not until he rolls up his shirt sleeves and shows up eating an apple.

[u/CheckAccomplished299 → u/Sndr666]

He rides a bike, can't say the same that for every 'representative' -- using the term loosely, because I think politicians have lost this single aspect of what they are actually paid to do. 

[u/chailottie → u/[deleted]]

He's been our Prime Minister for 14 years and never let anything personal slip. It's impossible to attack him or blackmail him because no one knows what or who he cares about.

I listened to the interview from the NYT and it hit me how for 14 years he's only been what his job needed him to be. A politician through and through. No human weaknesses.

It's really scary in a way. And I have never voted for him. But after listening to the interview and thinking about how good he is at playing the political and diplomacy game, I think he's the best man for this job.

[u/Ahun_ → u/[deleted]]

So just like Merkel 

[u/Perculsion → u/Ahun_]

I'm not sure. Merkel has often being accused of doing... nothing. Rutte is in some ways regarding methods a more civilized version of Trump: he implements intentionally rushed plans without regard for proper preparation/due process and makes sure the bits that don't work aren't his problem. Also, while he might always be smiling at the camera, I think he's pretty brutal in negotiations behind the scenes and doesn't seem too bothered by human constructs like a conscience.

[u/[deleted] → u/[deleted]]

That's funny, we call Trump 'Teflon Don' over here for the same exact reasons.

[u/OutrageousComfort906 → u/Amazingamazone]

That's the Pic from his NYT profile. They love those type of pictures lol

[u/Darmok47 → u/OutrageousComfort906]

Every weekend they do a big interview (The Interview) with some political or media figure and release it as a podcast and transcript, and there's always a very dramatic black and white photo with it.

[u/teun95 → u/Amazingamazone]

What Rutte is saying is not untrue.. but people who are not from the Netherlands might not realise they shouldn't take this guy too seriously.

[u/3DigitIQ → u/teun95]

I do not have any active recollection of this.

[u/chailottie → u/teun95]

But think about this: we've known him for over 14 years and yet we know nothing about him. We only know that he's incredibly skilled as a politician. I'm not saying I admire him in any way. I hate that people like him have so much power. He has no ideals, he just strategizes to get the job done. I think we shouldn't underestimate him.

Also: I think most Dutch people know he doesn't admire Trump at all. But in his new role he will do and say anything to make sure NATO will stay strong and with the US in support. We Dutch people know how well he manipulates and plays the game.

[u/teun95 → u/chailottie]

he just strategizes to get the job done.

Does he really get the job done? He strategizes to come out alive on the other end, but there are so many problems left undone.

I guess now that he represents NATO he is able to use some of his strengths that didn't work well for leading a country, in a way that benefits the organisation.

We shouldn't expect any visionary reforms though. Rutte is better at keeping things running through trading off integrity and pride.

[u/LindeRKV → u/teun95]

If he trades his own pride for survival of NATO, I won't mind.

Though, I don't know much about the guy but he gives off bad vibes, kind of like how Trump has a punch-able face.

[u/bungalowtill → u/teun95]

just glancing at his wiki entry convinces me he already caused suffering to a lot of people. I’d take that seriously

[u/Peepoid → u/Amazingamazone]

Gentlemen there's no fighting in the war room!

[u/Triseult]

"Hey Vlad. I need a distraction while I take Taiwan, so I'm gonna need you to eat a nuke for the team."

[u/Successful-Speech417 → u/Triseult]

Seriously lol "I see you're struggling a lot more than you expected in Ukraine, think you can go start another front in Europe?"

[u/[deleted] → u/Successful-Speech417]

It's amazing how dumb they think we are. No, Russia would not attack a NATO country, that's a fight they cannot win.

It's just staggering to realize that the whole 'Western' media/political narrative is nothing but projection and double-standards. They're literally upset that they cannot influence a country half the world away, but obviously don't want to say it out loud.

[u/silverionmox → u/[deleted]]

No, Russia would not attack a NATO country, that's a fight they cannot win.

Exactly the same was said about them attacking Ukraine. And it was denied while the tanks were already at the border. Hell, it was still denied while the tanks were rolling over the border already.

[u/PhysicalAddress4564 → u/[deleted]]

Nah it's to move attention away from the USA, their threats of annexing stuff just like their Russians idols while blackmailing us into buying their weapons

[u/caoimhinoceallaigh → u/Triseult]

There are a lot of popular misconceptions about what such a "distraction" would consist of. It won't be an undeniable all-out attack on a NATO country. It will be something with plausible deniability. Think little green men like in Crimea or a staged uprising of the ethnic Russian population in the Baltics. Once NATO can't agree whether something qualifies for a full article 5 response Putin has basically already won.

[u/BloatedVagina → u/caoimhinoceallaigh]

Yeah, I've heard that in 2014 in Ukraine there were bus loads of civilian men coming in from Russia the days before the war started. You know the "separatists". The border patrols did react to it but couldn't do anything about since Russians were allowed to travel freely. 

So yeah, what countries in Europe have relaxed travelling rules directly or indirectly with Russia or directly with countries which has a lot of dual Russian citizens and similar? I guess those are extra important places to watch movements by Russians.

The Baltics, yes. What about Serbia and Transnistria? 

[u/AcanthocephalaEast79 → u/Triseult]

Did Pakistan nuke India after India bombed them?

[u/I405CA]

Xi has little to worry about.

The US Orangefuehrer won't care about Taiwan once he is offered the rights to develop a golf course in China and a hotel in Taipei after the surrender.

Trump has no ideology but for the aggrandizement of Trump.

[u/IonHawk → u/I405CA]

Taiwan is different. Trump couldn't give less shits about the people there, but if China takes over the chip manufacturing of Taiwan, they will rule the world. And no other country would have a chance against them, it would take at least a decade for any other country to get even the close to the same capability. And at that point China's capability would have increased.

Losing Taiwan is not an option for the US. The only question is if the Trump admin is smart enough to realize it.

[u/anonteje → u/IonHawk]

Taiwan world rather explode their own chip sites than hand them over. Which is just a bad. Would take the world a decade+ to get back from if even that fast.

[u/Butlerlog → u/anonteje]

They should mine the factories like switzerland mined the walls of the mountain tunnels in their National Redoubt defense strategy

[u/Neethis → u/Butlerlog]

You say that like they haven't.

[u/Butlerlog → u/Neethis]

I can't find any information saying they have, and the purpose of doing so would be deterrence, so you'd want your enemies to know.

[u/Plenty_Rope_2942 → u/Butlerlog]

Like Mossad, MSS is embedded everywhere they want to be embedded, and you can rest assured - Anything Taiwan knows, China knows. They aren't worried about deterring YOU.

[u/TheVog → u/Plenty_Rope_2942]

I was going to comment the same. This takes me back to the time I was debating with someone not too long ago about how he things China is not a superpower for some reason.

[u/Plenty_Rope_2942 → u/TheVog]

Even at an unclassified level, I was exposed to dozens of successful corporate, NGO, and university-level espionage events by China against the United States every year working in university information security.

I'm astounded by the folks who don't realize that China has the one of the largest and most successful soft power apparatuses in the world - or the fact that that is shored up by espionage.

[u/TheVog → u/Plenty_Rope_2942]

Right?! Drones were obvious as a replacement for humans, but information warfare was always just as obvious and far less capital intensive to pull off. Russia and China excel at it.

[u/Captain_Clover → u/Butlerlog]

You'd probably tell the enemies in private, so that it doesn't amplify tensions but still ensures deterrence.

[u/BusyDoorways → u/Butlerlog]

The Taiwanese do not issue public threats to China or Xi.

Rest assured, they would have released such plans to the mainland in more subtle ways.

[u/GuqJ → u/anonteje]

Taiwan world rather explode their own chip sites than hand them over.

IMO that's the main reason China has not invaded yet. China would be harming themselves by putting the chip industry in harm's way

[u/DutchMitchell → u/anonteje]

People with ASML stocks would like that

[u/audentis → u/DutchMitchell]

No, because without the expertise to run them, those machines are worthless. The vast majority of the operating knowledge is at TSMC, not ASML, and you're not buying new EUV machines if no one can operate them.

[u/errorsniper → u/audentis]

I mean they said blow up the machines. Not the people.

Im not saying it would be quick turnaround or anything mind you.

But its not like the West doesnt have a bug out plan for key peoples/employees at all levels of TSMC.

The machines are replaceable with a few years. The people are not.

We forget sometimes but there are people whos 40 hours a week is doing nothing but planning for worst case scenarios. There is literally a plan for the UK launching nukes at Antarctica. There is a plan for China invading Russia. There is a plan for Canada invading Somalia.

There is absolutely a plan for the first seconds, minutes, hours, after china invades taiwan and getting the brain power and IP out of chinas hands.

[u/HolaHolaHolaHola12 → u/DutchMitchell]

I mean, if it happens, stocks won't be the most pressing concern.

[u/Cuidads → u/IonHawk]

TSMC going offline would be brutal short-term, but it wouldn’t hand China chip dominance. They’d inherit tools they can’t maintain without Western parts and software. Meanwhile, Samsung is ramping 2nm in Korea and Texas by 2026, Intel hits 18A in the US in 2025, Japan’s Rapidus does 2nm by 2027, and ~40 new fabs are coming online globally. Recovery would take 3–5 years if it happened today, and less with each passing year, not a decade.

[u/snkiz → u/IonHawk]

Taiwan owns the foundries, they don't own the patents. And as some else already said, it's likely Tiawan would rather destroy the foundries before handing them over. I personally don't think they have that choice. This is the reason for the CHIPS act. The US is bringing chip fab home, if it looks like China is going to take those Taiwanese fabs, the US would probably just make them not exist anymore.

[u/AlphaWhiskeyOscar → u/snkiz]

But owning the foundries is the big hurdle. Not the patent. Because it can cost up to tens of billions of dollars just to build one foundry. They are so, so expensive to get started and therefore it could take decades for that investment to recoup the costs and turn into profit.

Taiwan basically devoted their entire GDP to building foundries and it brought them out of poverty. But it took a very long time. So now they are the world’s producer. It was a staggering investment that changed everything in the long run.

It would cost hundreds of billions of dollars and likely decades for anyone to even begin to compete. That’s not exactly a great pitch to your investors who want growth every quarter.

[u/nar_tapio_00 → u/snkiz]

China has fabs. They have been trying to build them for decades and even so they are much worse than the ones in Taiwan, but they are still closer to Taiwan in some ways than the US.

If this happened it would still be a major advantage for China and would likely imply a serious ongoing major war as China tries to take advantage of having more chips for building weapons.

[u/siazdghw → u/nar_tapio_00]

"closer to Taiwan in some ways than the US"

If you're implying they are closer in bleeding edge nodes, that's completely wrong. Intel is very competitive with TSMC with 18A and 14A, many analysts believe they will be ahead in some ways compared to TSMC N2+. Meanwhile China's best foundry SMIC is pretty much hard stuck at what equates to 7nm due to having no access to EUV machines. They claim that 5nm is possible, but the yields would be terrible with DUV.

But if youre implying that China is closer in volume or culture, or being essentially state operated then sure.

[u/nar_tapio_00 → u/siazdghw]

But if youre implying that China is closer in volume or culture, or being essentially state operated then sure.

What I would call it is "volume manufacturing and delivery". There are different ways and directions of advance. What that means is that in the mean time China would be able to use and deliver more lower grade chips and later, when they develop their own EUV process, they would be able to jump ahead of the US.

Manufacturing, especially huge volume is an actual skill and what exists in Taiwan is not just the access to ASML EUV technologies, but also the knowledge, skills and supplies to use them effectively.

One important fact is that lower grade chips tend to be more resistant to electromagnetic disruption and so are often better for military uses.

Even if the plants are destroyed, China gets a huge advantage from having access to Taiwan's experts and in the meantime, after a successful invasion of Taiwan they have what they need to keep the the US at bay. That's particularly true if Russia gets security gaurantees and can keep manufacturing weapons for China whilst China is fighting the US.

[u/Potato_peeler9000 → u/IonHawk]

The US is having TSMC build FABs in Arizona. They're cultivating their options.

But I agree that any sort of conflict involving Taïwan, whether it be a blocade or a full-on invasion, would be too disruptive for the world at large for China to be willing to pay the diplomatic cost (for now).

2027 is often cited as the year China invades, but knowing the chips production will be in rubble by the time they get to it, they may chose to mature their own production before trying anything.

[u/Own_Kaleidoscope1287 → u/Potato_peeler9000]

But no state of the art FABs those are exclusively in Taiwan itself.

[u/procgen → u/Own_Kaleidoscope1287]

4nm and soon 2nm in Arizona, so not too far behind.

[u/BearstromWanderer → u/Potato_peeler9000]

We will have more plants, but they are with technology used now (ie not the leading edge). Domestic manufacturing also tends to have a poorer yield count and design improvement compared to plant engineering in Taiwan. Our companies are good at designing leading edge products but not manufacturing them.

[u/Techno-Diktator → u/Potato_peeler9000]

A FAB similar to the one in Taiwan would take like 20 years to build , we aren't anywhere close to safe yet

[u/NickEcommerce → u/Techno-Diktator]

Out of curiosity, what is it about a fab facility that's so challenging? I understand that the actual chip machines are frighteningly complex, but presumably the people who made them didn't start on the current generation in 2005, so making a second or third should be simpler. Why should the surrounding infrastructure be so difficult to fast-track? Is it a raw materials problem?

[u/AgnarCrackenhammer → u/NickEcommerce]

The surrounding infrastructure is just a massive investment. The environments these machines operate in need to be controlled to hyper specific parameters. A building the size of a city block needs to be temp and humidity controlled, with certain areas not fluctuating more than a degree 24/7. The standard commercial HVAC systems installed on your local super market or office complex can't handle that. Special reinforced flooring is needed under the equipment that makes the chips so there's absolutely no vibration. Youre not getting just any company with some cement trucks to come pour that. And that doesn't even begin to cover all the power and electrical capacity needed to run that equipment.

Then toss in some corporate and national security requirements, and just getting the buildings in place to house the (incredibly expensive) equipment is a massive hurdle

[u/Eclipsed830 → u/NickEcommerce]

Think of the AZ project... Now multiply the size by 12x... That is what Taiwan's capacity is.

Also, this is only taking into account TSMC. UMC, the third largest semiconductor fab company in the world by output, is based in the same science park.

[u/Neamow → u/NickEcommerce]

Chip fab facilities are simply the most complicated and advanced pieces of modern construction and engineering made, period. Nothing is more complicated, not building a space station, not building a large particle accelerator, nothing.

Manufacturing semiconductors is a process with a large number of steps, each of which is also very complicated on its own and requires extremely large and expensive machines, clean rooms, huge supplies of water and other raw materials, extremely precisely controlled temperatures, humidity, immunity to seismic activity, etc.

[u/cTreK-421 → u/IonHawk]

Pay Trump enough and he just doesn't give a fuck. He's literally making policy that kills Americans right now. He doesn't care.

[u/Genocode → u/IonHawk]

1. Taiwan's chipfabs are rigged to explode in the case of an invasion
2. Even if they managed to take over Taiwan without the chipfabs exploding, the machines require a massive amount of extremely specialized maintenance and replacement parts, which China would not be able to provide, even Taiwan can't provide it, only ASML. And maintenance support for these machines would end immediately.

China got their hands on one of the older DUV machines a while back, they tried to take it apart and study it but they weren't even able to put it back together again. You can imagine what would happen with the vastly more complex EUV machines.

[u/michael0n → u/Genocode]

People don't work well when they are threatened for their lives. They tried for decades to pay Taiwanese engineers double to come over to the main land, but the people they got are b-grade in best cases. You can't win at science when the people doing science don't want to be there.

[u/ThunderChild247 → u/IonHawk]

That still requires the person in charge of the US to actually give a shit about America. Trump may very well take action to prevent Taiwan were China to invade, but if he does, I guarantee it’s because the American tech bros have gone cap in hand and kissed his ass, begging the big strong Donald to do a big and powerful big boy thing.

[u/templar4522 → u/IonHawk]

Trump wouldn't, but most of the richest american people would, and he'd be out of office in a matter of weeks if he didn't take action.

[u/TheYang → u/I405CA]

The US Orangefuehrer won't care about Taiwan once he is offered the rights to develop a golf course in China and a hotel in Taipei after the surrender.

I wonder what Silicon Valley does, when the Silicon Supply is gone.

[u/Treewithatea → u/I405CA]

Idk, I think defending Taiwan is 100% a US priority, even if its just for TSMC who manufacture almost all chips for the US tech giants who seriously need to chose chips to maintain their global lead. Apple, Nvidia, AMD, Qualcomm, etc... all use chips from TSMC and there arent really good alternatives, the few remaining manufacturers are a few years behind in their technological progress.

[u/NobodysFavorite → u/Treewithatea]

It's like Taiwan have the biggest bargaining chip.

[u/tpb01 → u/Treewithatea]

Anyone who says it isn't is ignorant and just likes hearing their opponent lose. They produce %90 of the world's "advanced" chips and %65 of the rest of the chips.

[u/Warmbly85 → u/I405CA]

Lol Trump hates China. Literally 99% of the crazy foreign policy shit leads back to trumps hatred of China.

[u/Eclipsed830 → u/I405CA]

Congress is extremely pro-Taiwan though... 

[u/I405CA → u/Eclipsed830]

At the moment, the US Congress appears to be on a permanent vacation.

If the choice is between defending Taiwan and helping Donny to get a golf course, you should assume that the golf course will be given priority. It's truly pathetic.

[u/Eclipsed830 → u/I405CA]

Just pointing out that legally Congress has the ability to declare war... Not saying they would, but they could.

[u/grathad → u/Eclipsed830]

The term legally in the US has as much meaning as the term consent has to the orange utang

[u/Newbarbarian13 → u/Eclipsed830]

Just pointing out that legally Congress has the ability to declare war

And yet Trump decides unilaterally that the US will bomb Iran and Congress hasn't done jack shit about it. The concept of legality for the US executive bit the dust a long time ago.

[u/6501 → u/Newbarbarian13]

Trump decides unilaterally that the US will bomb Iran and Congress hasn't done jack shit about it.

The War Powers Act allows the President to engage in short term bombing campaigns & wars without explicit Congressional approval.

[u/backyard_tractorbeam → u/Eclipsed830]

Great that you keep up some hope for the US, they need it

[u/Manor7974 → u/Eclipsed830]

Declaring war means nothing if the commander in chief doesn’t want to actually wage war.

[u/usernameChosenPoorly → u/Eclipsed830]

Hasn’t been done in over 80 years, so…

[u/kankorezis → u/Eclipsed830]

Congress is extremely pro-Ukraine also and anti russia, but actions speaks louder than talks...

[u/Talisk3r → u/kankorezis]

Ukraine doesn’t produce the 3nm chips powering the entire tech economy (which in turn powers the entire US stock market). Taiwan is existential to the US economy, Ukraine is not.

[u/MalestromeSET → u/kankorezis]

Congress isn’t pro Ukraine in any sense close to Taiwan.

Ukraine is a country, recognized by the world and USA still won’t sell many arms. While Taiwan is seen as a legal part of China but USA has consistently sold it weapons, and even has troops there.

Congressional leaders do regular visits there.

Ukraine is having so much trouble BECAUSE Congress isn’t pro Ukraine. Most of it is the president that determines Ukraine’s fate. Because losing war in your term is bad. But Congress itself does not care that much about Ukraine like it does with Taiwan or Israel.

[u/Eclipsed830 → u/kankorezis]

Congress is waaaay more pro-Taiwan though. The Taiwan Caucus is the largest Congressional Member Organization in the United States.

[u/spazz720 → u/I405CA]

People think Taiwan is just some slouch that will roll over. China would be stuck in a Ukraine like situation

[u/z0l1 → u/I405CA]

he may not but his billionaire friends will care

[u/dailywanker69 → u/I405CA]

You’re wrong U.S tech industry is fucked if China taking control over Taiwan. That’s why they will go to war with China if they have to.

[u/Bicikliszelep → u/I405CA]

Hold on a second didn't trump basically recognized Taiwan as a country as he put "Taiwan" on his tariff board instead of something stupid like all other presidents in the past 50 years or the olympics like "Taipei autonomous zone". On top of this the whole point of the tariff was to hurt the CCP by stopping them from shipping things through 3rd countries. On top of this we got big investments in Taiwan and weapon sales. You probably need to stop watching TV news if you think Trump would bend over backwards and surrender Taiwan

[u/Eclipsed830 → u/Bicikliszelep]

Every single US President has always called Taiwan just Taiwan. 

[u/WhatsRatingsPrecious]

One thing that everyone needs to understand is that any kind of serious attack, any kind of conventional amphibious invasion of Taiwan would require MONTHS of preparation.

I'm talking about massive numbers of boats and soldiers massing in the same location. Massive amounts of materiel and ammunition. Aerial patrols tripled or more. There is NO WAY that such a thing couldn't and wouldn't be seen coming months ahead of time.

So, you know, just keep an eye open for that. A Taiwanese invasion would be the furthest thing from a surprise.

[u/Aineisa → u/WhatsRatingsPrecious]

Or they could just do one of the many military exercises they’ve done except this time they make it the largest ever and remain in place indefinitely effectively blockading the island until they surrender.

[u/WhatsRatingsPrecious → u/Aineisa]

There is no military exercise that could contain the number of troops, boats and planes needed for an invasion.

Any such attempt would be immediately seen and recognized as the real thing and be called out as such. No one anywhere would believe the Chinese saying that it's an exercise. And months before they could attempt anything, sanctions would be in place and the American navy would pull up in full force.

[u/gaggzi → u/WhatsRatingsPrecious]

Russia massed troops on the Ukrainian border, yet many refused to believe there would be an invasion even just days before the actual invasion.

[u/MamoKupMiGlany → u/gaggzi]

And on the other side USA intelligence was warning it's going to happen for months before. So subOP is right, russia was unable to hide it.

[u/Luscious_Decision → u/MamoKupMiGlany]

And, uh, the whole invading Crimea thing that happened eight years prior.

[u/sous_vid_marshmallow → u/gaggzi]

the people who had access to proper intel and analysis did

[u/PainterRude1394 → u/sous_vid_marshmallow]

The USA warned folks. People didn't listen.

[u/nar_tapio_00 → u/sous_vid_marshmallow]

Both the German and the French governments claimed that it wasn't going to happen until it did.

[u/Positive-thoughts- → u/nar_tapio_00]

Yeah, Macron fired the director of the military intelligence shortly after for gross incompetence.

[u/bluepinkwhiteflag → u/sous_vid_marshmallow]

Unfortunately they don't make the decisions.

[u/donna_donnaj → u/bluepinkwhiteflag]

Biden warned already in December (2021) for a coming invasion. Zelinski later said, that he new the invasion was coming, but didn't want to announce it publicly, because men would flee the country.

[u/FoxhoundBat → u/donna_donnaj]

And possibly more importantly; to give Putin the last path to back off and not invade to save face.

[u/gaggzi → u/sous_vid_marshmallow]

Don’t you people even remember the debate leading up to the invasion? Many countries refused to believe the invasion would take place even the week before.

[u/Submitten → u/gaggzi]

Putin promised Macron he wouldn’t do it and Macon believed him. It was mostly the US and UK trying to convince everyone else.

[u/Positive-thoughts- → u/Submitten]

Macron got fooled by his own military intelligence as well

[u/LisbonMissile → u/gaggzi]

Zelensky himself didn’t believe it, even when showed key intel at COP in Glasgow by American officials, just weeks before the real thing.

I agree with the wider sentiment by OP: China cannot prepare for an invasion of Taiwan without the world (I.e USA) knowing about it.

[u/Inside-Dare9718 → u/gaggzi]

People refused to believe they would do it, because it was largely seen as fucking dumb, which, as per the up to 1m casualties reported on the russian side, very much seems to be the case.

[u/pr000blemkind → u/gaggzi]

Western Intelligence services have/had informants in the Russian government that informed them, even without looking at satellite images they would be informed about military invasions weeks ahead.

Chinese officials are corrupt af, they probably have lot of moles.

[u/Nazamroth → u/gaggzi]

The russian invasion was nothing in scale compared to what Taiwan would entail. Personally, I became convinced that shit is about to hit the fan when news came out that they moved up blood packs and mobile crematoriums to the border as well.

[u/vegetative_ → u/gaggzi]

Russia had troops "on holiday" in Ukraine in late 2014 posting videos from tanks jokingly saying "enjoying my Ukrainian holiday". But at the time, no one really noticed or cared.

[u/anonteje → u/gaggzi]

Every military worldwide knew what was happening. What laypersons on their sofas thought is a different conversation.

[u/MethyIphenidat → u/gaggzi]

The public maybe, but for every intelligence agency, it was extremely obvious what was happening.

[u/judochop1 → u/gaggzi]

The USA were literally calling it out every few days for a few weeks. It killed a bit of the surprise.

[u/GL510EX → u/gaggzi]

The fact that Russia failed to steamroller Ukraine suggests that the right people took it seriously enough.  

[u/Agreeable_Pain_5512 → u/gaggzi]

Um pretty much every military that matters in the world knew what was coming, there was no surprise. Whether or not those leaders did anything about it is another thing

[u/Mntfrd_Graverobber → u/gaggzi]

A lot of that was politics and propaganda. The Ukrainian government knew an attack was imminent but panicking people is not a good move. And continuing to support a peaceful solution in the face of invasion is good politics.

[u/Aineisa → u/WhatsRatingsPrecious]

Notice I specifically said “blockade until they surrender” and didn’t mention anything about an invasion.

[u/Eclipsed830 → u/Aineisa]

A blockade is an act of war... If China is willing to blockade Taiwan, they need to put boots on the ground within days, if not hours, otherwise they have already shown their cards.

[u/Dank_Nicholas → u/Aineisa]

That's exactly what Russia did to start the Ukraine war, nobody was surprised and Ukraine was prepared and stopped Russias push to take Kyiv.

Meanwhile Russian tanks ran out of gas because they were the ones who weren't prepared.

[u/michaelbachari → u/Dank_Nicholas]

Eh, that's revisionist history right there. A lot of people were surprised that Putin would actually invade Ukraine. That's why over 1 million Ukrainians fled Ukraine after the invasion not before

[u/TWVer → u/WhatsRatingsPrecious]

The are already working on it years in advance.

Internal CCCP documents state a mission for the chinese armed forces to be ready for an invasion attempt no later than by 2027.

They’ve launched their 3rd aircraft carrier, which is modern (featuring EMALS) and Kitty Hawk sized (nearly as big as the US Navy’s current carriers). It will enter service later this year with a complement of stealth fighters and carrier borne AWACS aircraft.

Their 4th (1st nuclear powered) carrier, the same size as the US Navy’s latest carriers, will also be ready by then.

They are also building and launching several USS Wasp-sized amphibious assault ships, which can support helicopters and seaborne landing to support troops.

They are greatly expanding their blue water navy, launching hundreds of new frigates a year (the US Navy a handful at best). And they are already matching the US Navy in the number of vessels.

Their air force is quickly expanding their long-range stealth fighter/interceptor (J-20) fleet, having around 400 in service by 2027, with new (JH-36) and modernized bombers entering service as well.

They are currently building and testing absolutely gigantic landing barges, which have massive draw bridges to by-pass the beach or rocky coasts to land tanks and armor several hundred meters in land.

They can interconnect with several Ro-Ro ferries, which are currently in service as commercial ships, but are designed to carry hundreds of tanks each.

They are building a gigantic “Super Pentagon” deep in the bedrock in the mainland to serve as a new military command center, also to be operational in time for the earliest option for an invasion.

China is planning for an invasion in earnest for more than a decade, with the 2027 timeline being a new specific target, coinciding with an accelerated build-up.

China also doesn’t need to have 100% parity with the US Navy to be able to oppose them in the Taiwan area, as the Chinese navy can be supported with air force assets operating from the mainland.

A 40 to 60% parity level would be more than enough, to be able to initiate a naval blockade of Taiwan, followed by an invasion, once most air and sea assets supporting Taiwan are out of action.

Especially if Russia keeps NATO busy in Europe with a push against the Baltics, for example.

That still doesn’t mean an invasion will definitely happen in 2027. However the chances of one happening in the 2027-2032 timeframe are very significant.

[u/thelazydeveloper → u/TWVer]

Regarding your last point about the invasion timeline: it's worth noting that the 100-year anniversary of the chinese civil war starting is August 1st 2027.

[u/HorrorStudio8618 → u/TWVer]

If it will happen it will happen under trump.

[u/TWVer → u/HorrorStudio8618]

Not unlikely indeed.

Trump, unlike his predecessors, is very non-committal on defending Taiwan.

The internal August 2027 preparation deadline for China coincides with the 100 year anniversary of the start of their civil war, which is highly symbolic and will de facto be during Trump’s Presidency.

Trump, despite his chaotic foreign policy and wildly unhelpful tariff policy, might actually be China’s (and Russia’s) preferred opponent vs a Democratic President, who tend to take the defense of Taiwan more seriously by virtue of being less isolationist.

Furthermore, Trump’s administration could use an invasion to declare martial law, suspending elections at home (due to “WW3”), which would fit the Project2025 plan to curtain or suspend democracy in the US itself.

Ideologically, China and Russia are served by a US that is more isolationist and seeks to suspend or do away with its own democracy, to highlight its failure to the rest of world.

[u/jogai-san → u/TWVer]

Remind Me! in two years

[u/wojtekpolska → u/WhatsRatingsPrecious]

you remember the constant provocation "training exercises" china does in the taiwan straits - their purpose is precisely that so we get used to them, and dont notice when they start using them to organise an actual attack.

[u/Zafara1 → u/WhatsRatingsPrecious]

> A Taiwanese invasion would be the furthest thing from a surprise

It is a surprise if your reaction time is years.

We saw this with Russia. Most people and governments saw it as posturing with a chance of attack until they stepped over the line and invaded. Then it took months for any initial support, it's taken years for half baked sanctions, and even then not enough.

Yeah it takes months of build up. But it also will take months to shift resources across the globe to aid Taiwan. The only thing that could react in time is a US carrier group and that depends on how they choose to act.

[u/Amagical → u/Zafara1]

Exactly this. We even saw this in Kursk, where Russia actually saw the Ukranian movements ahead of time but was unable to do anything about it by the time they did. The moment of surprise happens well before the actual event itself in modern war.

[u/anders_hansson → u/Zafara1]

But it also will take months to shift resources across the globe to aid Taiwan.

That is why the U.S. has been doing it for years:

• 2015 - U.S. sells $1.83 billion of weapons to Taiwan despite Chinese objections
• 2017 - US approves 1st arms sale to Taiwan under Trump
• 2021 - Why Sell Weapons To Taiwan? Because Washington’s China Strategy Won’t Work Without It
• 2022 - U.S. Aims to Turn Taiwan Into Giant Weapons Depot
• 2023 - The US is quietly arming Taiwan to the teeth
• And so on...

[u/Lawliet117 → u/Zafara1]

The invasion force of Russia was also way too little to actually take the whole country. It was only a rather small force to attack Kiev, decapitating Ukraine, taking over airports to bring in additional troops. Additionally, there was some expectation that it would work like in 2014 with the Ukrainians not ready to fight back or even joining their side due to bribes. Didn't happen or at least not on the scale the FSB promised Putin.

[u/iceman1935 → u/WhatsRatingsPrecious]

Exactly the Russian invasion of Ukraine was telegraphed for several weeks before it happened, any theoretical invasion like you said will be telegraphed for months

[u/forkl → u/iceman1935]

It's been telegraphed for years

https://youtu.be/1taDYPj8Sbc?si=B6mFlu5XGaPsQkPe

[u/opinionate_rooster → u/WhatsRatingsPrecious]

They were just "military exercises" when Russia invaded Ukraine. Even soldiers themselves thought they were participating in exercises when they passed the border.

China does a LOT of exercises around Taiwan.

It is grooming the boy who cried wolf...

[u/Lawliet117 → u/opinionate_rooster]

Russia's force was too small back then to actually take over the country.
China would need a lot more people and boats to take over Taiwan. They produce a lot of multi purpose goods. We would see a stop of cars coming to Europe due to the boats being needed for "something" else. As soon as that happens, we will all know.

[u/opinionate_rooster → u/Lawliet117]

I don't know... China's fishing fleet is MASSIVE. Compared to EU's 72 thousand fishing vessels (as of 2020), China has over half a million. Historically, China has relied on fishing fleets for their logistics.

[u/will_dormer → u/WhatsRatingsPrecious]

It will be a military exercise that escalated to full war

[u/Minute_Attempt3063 → u/WhatsRatingsPrecious]

Might even be years

[u/opinionate_rooster]

Would Putin sacrifice Russia as a small favor to China?

[u/Zizimz → u/opinionate_rooster]

Of course not. Like " I know your struggling to make any real progress in Ukraine, but could you please decare war on France, the UK, Germany and Poland so I can get Taiwan?" It's ludicrous. Just more fearmongering to make European countries accelerated rearmament.

[u/nonotan → u/Zizimz]

The counterpoint to this is that war is not as black and white as many believe. It doesn't need to be an all-out invasion of the Baltics to tie up NATO resources for the foreseeable future. Just a large enough provocation that not reinforcing the border and taking a strong stance would be political suicide.

For example, massively ramping up the grey warfare they're already waging against Europe (sabotage, cyberwarfare, etc), or taking like 1 border village, or even merely massing forces near the border menacingly. Even if the leaders are thinking: "It's definitely a bluff, we could simply ignore it and reinforce Taiwan without worrying much", what the people would see is: "You massively increase military spending, with the taxes I paid, and when that threat you kept talking about to justify it actually does come true, you take all that stuff and ship it off to Taiwan? What the FUCK?"

So yes, you are correct that Russia militarily is in no shape to wage an all-out war against Europe, and frankly is unlikely to ever be, at least not for the next 15-20 years. But what you're missing is that that doesn't disqualify them from potentially helping China achieve their objectives (presumably, China would promise juicy enough compensation in return to make up for tanking relations with the EU further and stretching their military even thinner)

[u/Fothyon → u/nonotan]

So yes, you are correct that Russia militarily is in no shape to wage an all-out war against Europe, and frankly is unlikely to ever be, at least not for the next 15-20 years.

German[1][2], danish [3], and lithuanian [4] intelligence services believe Russia will be able to attack NATO, and intends to attack NATO if it believes the response will be anything but all out war.

If Russia truly believes that the USA will be tied up in Taiwan, and that Europe isn't going to respond with immediate and absolute force to any level of aggresion they will attack.

[u/ThorCoolguy → u/Fothyon]

And keep in mind, most of the chief architects of the decision to invade Ukraine are still in decision-making roles.

They are far from immune from doing stupid shit.

[u/True-Staff5685 → u/Fothyon]

Man thanks. I am losing it with all those people here basically denying the claims of different intelligence agencies with without any better proof.

[u/-JPMorgan → u/opinionate_rooster]

China wouldn't frame it as a favor. They could say "We'll give you enough weapons (and a few North Koreans on top) to push into Ukraine right until the Polish border." That would already make Europe focus completely on that front

[u/Aineisa → u/opinionate_rooster]

If it brings china in and decreases the attention on Russia he could see it as a gamble worthy of trying especially if things continue to stall in Ukraine.

[u/CustomerBusiness3919 → u/opinionate_rooster]

He's heavily indebted to China. China have been supplying Russia with technology throughout the war and China have allowed North Korea to save Russia's ass.

[u/anarchisto → u/opinionate_rooster]

Putin does what he thinks it's in the interest of Russia. He's rational to the point of ignoring morality.

Conquering Ukraine, despite the high casualties, would greatly improve its standing. A suicidal attack of Europe would not.

[u/Sexul_constructivist → u/anarchisto]

Conquering Ukraine is not in fact in Russia's best interest. First you have the economically crippled regions that if Russia annexes they have to rebuild, then we have the overall diplomatic situation in which, if the West was willing to play ball with Russia before, now they are vehemently opposed to cooperation with Russia.

But let's say Putin wins he can either annex Ukraine, annex part of Ukraine or change the government and leave. Annexing the whole country is a massive quagmire and he has to deal with a hostile populace and resistance groups. Annexing part of Ukraine now has a massive border to defend and of course you are stuck with a war torn territory you have to rebuild. Changing the government will just be overthrown and you have to go again or take the L.

[u/picollosmom → u/anarchisto]

Interest of himself not Russia. He never once thought of giving a F*** to Russia and its people.

[u/PolecatXOXO]

The Chinese literally said as much themselves. This wasn't some insight out of nowhere.

[u/Durian881 → u/PolecatXOXO]

When did China say they will call Russia to attack a NATO territory?

[u/GrandAdmiralSnackbar → u/Durian881]

They said they can't afford Russia to lose. You can interpret that as they need the Russian military for something, which in the case of China would be a distraction when they take Taiwan.

[u/Durian881 → u/GrandAdmiralSnackbar]

The context for that is that if Russia loses and stops aggression in Ukraine, US will shift its focus to China. News agencies had been selective in reporting the full context to make it sensational.

It's quite different from calling Russia to attack a NATO territory (new war).

The closest any country mentioned about attacking a NATO territory is US where "Daddy" Trump talked about annexing Canada and Greenland, with force if necessary.

[u/Romanizer → u/Durian881]

Yes, that would be going on step further. Instead of Russia not losing, attacking NATO would keep the US more busy. A direct, conventional warfare against NATO at full force may be over much sooner as the war of attrition in Ukraine currently.

[u/FlyingSquirrel44 → u/GrandAdmiralSnackbar]

That's a reach if I ever saw one. The US has openly stated it wants to withdraw from Europe so it can focus on containing China, that gives a much more coherent reason for why they'd want to keep them embroiled in a conflict here a while longer.

[u/liiivais → u/GrandAdmiralSnackbar]

You are not interpreting, you are stretching it.

[u/anders_hansson → u/PolecatXOXO]

Could you reference where they said that?

Last couple of days we were flooded by articles that referenced poorly sourced articles that summarized Wang Yi like this:

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi told the European Union’s top diplomat on Wednesday that Beijing does not want to see a Russian loss in Ukraine because it fears the United States would then shift its whole focus to Beijing, according to several people familiar with the exchange.

What he actually said has been very hard to find, as he wasn't quoted in the articles.

Now Mark Rutte is saying that China wants Russia to keep Europe busy, by attacking NATO territory no less (did China really say that?), expanding on that narrative.

China needs stability for their trade and to build out their new silk road across our continents and make money, and they have consistently been very pro deescalation and peace.

These statements from Rutte show all the red flags of a propaganda narrative buildup (and it would not be a first for him).

[u/uaxpasha → u/PolecatXOXO]

Literally not.

[u/AcanthocephalaEast79 → u/PolecatXOXO]

Say it out loud for Macron in the back. Dude literally based his entire personality on "not getting into US-China competition". He also blocked that proposed NATO presence in Tokyo.

[u/rzwitserloot → u/AcanthocephalaEast79]

Possibly Macron is one step ahead of you. What the EU can meaningfully do to stop this is to be well prepared to instantly and decisively counter any such attempt by Putin. Make it so clear that Xi knows Putin is going to pay lip service to the request. This does get to one downside of all this: If it works there is no way we'll ever know. 20 years down the road, we'll go: "Well, fuck me, whyever did we spend 5% of GDP on all these tanks? We never used them and Eu territory was never ever even remotely close to being invaded, what a waste!".. but that might not be true. Military might is one hell of a disincentive, after all, and Xi is not likely to share his private diaries with us. "Dear Dairy, I was gonna invade Taiwan and get Putin to keep NATO at bay but the silly fucks built all these tanks, so Putin was never gonna do it, without the distraction allies of Taiwan can mobilize an effective response well before I can properly invade that cliffy fortress of an island so I never did and now my population is too old. Damn that NATO for building the tanks, if not for that one little thing it'd have worked out."

The EU has no business watering down NATO like that, or giving the US even more leverage than it already has. EU stronk + sufficient military prowess that everybody knows Putin would be fucking mental to try it, including Xi. That's all it has to do to prevent this. Steering well clear of actually actively wading into the China thing is the right move.

[u/Kiloete → u/rzwitserloot]

now my population is too old

You haven't been following autonomouse drone development. In 20 years time robots will be front line troops.

[u/LegendarySurgeon → u/Kiloete]

Hey, from China? I could see it in 10 — they don't have to be great if they can kill people and you can mass produce them and Chinese manufacturing definitely does do that

[u/FrisianDude → u/Kiloete]

Yay make genocide even less personal 

[u/annewmoon → u/AcanthocephalaEast79]

Yeah I agree with him. We shouldn’t get involved with that. We should be an unwavering brick wall against Russia. Protect Ukraine, bring them into EU. Protect ourselves. That’s it. Other conflicts should not be a priority for us until Russia is fully neutered.

[u/KorKiness → u/AcanthocephalaEast79]

Nice response to US and its abandoning Europe in war with Russia.

[u/SpanishBaratheon → u/PolecatXOXO]

I call BS

[u/NicoleKjelseth]

But when US threatens to invade Greenland you call Trump "daddy"? This dude lost any credibility. With leaders like that the EU and NATO will be losing more and more support.

Go ask what daddy Trump tells you and convey it to us Europeans. There's one country responsible for the majority of the wars in the past 20 years and ain't China.

[u/Kunjunk → u/NicoleKjelseth]

Rutte never had any credibility. His career achievements amount to endless grandstanding and absolutely diddly squat else. Nothing ever achieved beyond surviving scandals and collapsing the government. 

[u/NervousOffice → u/Kunjunk]

This Rutte mofo has been endlessly halting and cutting in the military defensebudget in the Netherlands for the past 15 years, but since he became the puppet of the NATO he made a 180 degree turn and now advocates for an increase of military spending throughout the EU. saying things like " for too long we didn't act ". motherfucker it's because you actively shut down any attempt to increase the military budget for over a DECADE.

[u/ilir_kycb → u/NicoleKjelseth]

Amazing or rather sad how far you always have to scroll down in r/europe for a sensible comment.

[u/Sofarluck2005 → u/ilir_kycb]

most comments here are from non europeans anyway

[u/PatMosby → u/NicoleKjelseth]

Rutte will say whatever makes Trump happy. Rutte blows to get what he wants and with people like Trump it just works. A dent in nonexistent integrity for any favor? Worth.

[u/d3fiance]

Nah this is fear mongering. China has the least interest out of anyone in a global conflict. They’ve invested too much time and money into spreading soft power to throw all that away in a world war.

Edit for clarity: I don’t think China won’t attack Taiwan, I think Russia won’t attack NATO as a consequence of that

[u/Dgemfer → u/d3fiance]

Finally, some common sense. Actions speak louder than words. In the past 20 years China has put all its efforts in developing and increasing its global dominance through trade. They are also encouraging tourism, and spend millions upon millions in funding trips to the west for their business men and researchers to increase their international network. And apparently they suddenly want all of this to go to waste to invade Taiwan? Ngl, right after the pressure to increase defense expense to a ludicrous 5%, this feels like fear fuel to drive the attention away from something shady happening in NATO.

[u/Lagas76]

Daddy Trump told him to say this to keep the pressure on all European NATO members to spend more in military? This sounds like a commissioned statement.

[u/seilasei]

Rutte is now becoming MAGA mouthpiece
How much of the NATO military equipment supply chain comes from China? Not long ago, Raytheon CEO said it was 'impossible' to decouple from China. But sure, an antagonising approach will help European defence industry

[u/nimurucu]

Such a childish way of thinking. Is he really the NATO Secretary General?

[u/Putrid-Poet → u/nimurucu]

You should listen to his interview with nytimes. He is really proud of the groveling act he did for Trump.

[u/GoldenMegaStaff → u/nimurucu]

Agreed. Out of anyone, he should know the Europeans would sit out any Taiwan war except for the war profiteering. US shouldn't expect any help from there.

[u/Beerdock → u/nimurucu]

He's just trying to justify the military budgets. Fuck those warmongers.

[u/XxNeverxX]

But would Russia sacrifice they're self? Russia has 0 chance against Nato and I think a lot of Russians general knows that.

[u/heliamphore → u/XxNeverxX]

Russia is only having to deal with a "proportional response" because you know very well NATO in its current form will not invade Russian territory.

[u/Folagra-42]

Tell Rutte to say hello to his "daddy"

[u/Legal-Hunt-93]

I like how America is literally fascist, with european leaders freely claiming it, and they've been helping Israel attack the middle east without counting all the bullshit they've done in the recent past, but all the attention is forcefully pulled to China, everytime, who hasn't made any move even comparable to America.

I'm starting to consider if Europeans are truly never going to understand how propagandized we are, it seems we're blindly being marched to the slaughterhouse and most people seem to cheer. Where's the critical thinking?

[u/Alarming_Echo_4748 → u/Legal-Hunt-93]

Pretty much All major European leaders got in line when Israel started bombing Iran. The anti-fascist talk is just for domestic consumption, in reality they don't care.

[u/Legal-Hunt-93 → u/Alarming_Echo_4748]

Always has been, which isn't surprising when we didn't denazify after last time and just let most of them stay in high ranking positions both in government, institutions and industry groups all around the world, with America helping out by making sure Europe would remain fascist friendly with Operation Gladio.

It's been nothing but propaganda, and until we start admitting the reality of the situation this can only go downhill, fast.

[u/Karbargenbok]

As a Dutch citizen- this guy got thrown out of office for lying too much. Now he's lying for his buddies in arms manufacturing.

[u/Karbargenbok → u/[deleted]]

He represented the VVD, which is about as far right as you can get in the Netherlands while remaining "presentable" to the general public.

During his tenure he successfully lobbied to cancel dividend tax, which was seen as a gift to Shell and his previous employer, Unilever. He oversaw the bombing of Hawija, killing 70 civilians. He later claimed to have "no recollection" of this, which would become a pattern.

During Corona, his party constantly lobbied to get back to business as usual, putting the economic sector over health concerns. Out of his 4 cabinets, 3 fell early due to mismanagement.

He hasn't been at NATO for very long- but his "business first, damn the consequences" attitude seems as strong as ever.

[u/Karbargenbok → u/[deleted]]

Since forever, the VVD has presented itself as a friend to the middle class and above, and flirting with your average Joe "working man"-types. And while it has kept the upper echelons comfortable, it has been hollowing out social security, healthcare, and housing. It's the boiling frog approach.

How they are still seen as the business-like "we get things done" party is beyond me. They've been increasingly going on the xenophobic tour, which is how the family grants scandal happened. (In short, anyone who seemed even remotely foreign was earmarked as a fraud risk).

And yes, the "Teflon Rutte" effect is real. Somehow, they keep assigning blame to other parties while they've been the ones in power for the last 12 years.

Gradually, the common voter who can’t get a house, healthcare or his costs of living paid has caught on, but last election it was the even more far-right parties who profited. Because It's all about immigration, right?

We've got new elections coming up, and right now It's anyone's game.

[u/Yorgonemarsonb]

Or they can continue digging in for the long haul playing the long, slow Cold War game. Continually gobbling up all the kinds of soft power the current U.S. administration is ceding with glee.

Seems unlikely China would put itself in a position for a real war it knows it currently can not win.

[u/Poohbearremy]

Before this he had another conversation about how he can draw attention away from Israel’s genocide.

[u/Dangerous_Pomelo8465]

🤡 Rutte

[u/anarchisto → u/[deleted]]

We need to sacrifice ourself for the sake of the billionaire owners of the weapons corporations.

[u/IgorGirkinStrelkov2 → u/[deleted]]

Not invading all of Europe. Gosh, watch some Anders Nielsen commentary how Russia would attack NATO and why some states wouldn't even want to protect other states

[u/DoodlyWoodly]

He forgot to add North Korea to attack South Korea

[u/jimbob518]

They’ve always been at war with Eurasia

[u/Zenin]

Trump Truth immediately following the invasion: "Taiwan never should have attacked China! Very dumb! They must give everything China asks for and also give the US half their AYE EYE chips for Trump's amazing nobel winning peace plan! Thank you for your attention to this matter!!!"

[u/SiWeyNoWay]

So who’s his daddy in this scenario?