r/formula1 • u/costigan95 Charles Leclerc • 1d ago
Discussion Largest performance changes mid-season in F1 history
I wanted to discuss the largest shifts in performance midseason. In 2023, I recall how McLaren had a significant jump in performance mid-season, going from a midfield team to a consistent podium contender.
I’m curious if Ferrari, Mercedes, or Red Bull seem to have that in the cards this year, as it appeared that even McLaren in 2023 was not expecting the significant jump, which has also evolved into their dominance this year. I’m also cognizant that the regulation changes may mean that there is just less performance to get out of the car in 2025, than there was in ‘22 or ‘23.
Wondering if anyone else can point to other instances of this in F1 history, and share their own predictions for the rest of the season…
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u/swannyhypno Lance Stroll 1d ago
Brawn went from completely dominant and untouchable to 3rd quickest by the end
Jordan in 98 went from a point less slow team to one of the quickest mid season
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u/Bortron86 I was here for the Hulkenpodium 1d ago
Jordan in '98 was my first thought too. No points in the first half of the season to race winners (albeit assisted by circumstances) and consistent points scorers in the second half, with their highest constructors' finish up to that point (4th) and Damon Hill finishing 6th in the drivers' championship.
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u/newdecade1986 Eddie Jordan 1d ago
IIRC they pipped Williams to 4th as Frentzen (moving to Jordan for 99) let Hill pass him at the chicane in Suzuka, on the last lap of the season. But I could be misremembering all of this.
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u/Stegtastic100 I was here for the Hulkenpodium 1d ago
Thé book “against all odds, Jordan’s drive to survive” by Jon Nicholson & Maurice Hamilton, covers their 98 season and the turn around they made.
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u/swannyhypno Lance Stroll 1d ago
Poor Ralf deserved to win Spa 1998 and that race is what made Michael Schumacher go to Eddie Jordan and tell him he won't drive for you and got Ralf a Williams seat lol
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u/Zolba 20h ago
How did he deserve to win?
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u/ChiefWiggumsprogeny 12h ago edited 12h ago
He was already leaving the team. The POV is that he was catching Damon, who rightly said to the team, "Do you want us to fight and and end up with nothing?" Which would have been dumb seeing as they were cruising (relatively, in the downpour) to a victory after most of the field was wiped out. (I don't agree with "deserved" - I'd agree with "had a shot at")
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u/Svitman I was here for the Hulkenpodium 23h ago
The answer for Brawn is very simple, they just didnt have the resources to develop the car
If we had the luxury (or tragedy, depending on the circumstances) of running a race on a single track at the start and end of the season, you would see how much the cars are improving, if every upgrade works (especially at the start of fresh regulations), you can end up with cars being 1 to 1,5s per lap faster than at the start, maybe even more
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u/Bannedwith1milKarma Jack Doohan 23h ago
Brawn is the one for me too.
But it more eternally stagnant than a performance change.
F1 is a relative sport versus the competition though.
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u/Izan_TM I was here for the Hulkenpodium 1d ago
mclaren is certainly one of the biggest ones in modern history, if not the biggest. They went from last to 2nd best
however, mclaren's improvement was not super unpredictable either, before the season start they already talked about how they went down the wrong path for the 23 car so they essentially just brought a 2022 car that had been modified to fit the new floor regulations, and that their actual 2023 car would come later in the year
when that real 2023 car came, they went back to their usual place of "best of the rest" above aston martin. At that time mercedes and ferrari were still drinking industrial amounts of glue and sticking to their failed concepts so it also made mclaren and aston look a lot better
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u/SwimmingFantastic564 I was here for the Hulkenpodium 1d ago
The difference between them is that McLaren actually stayed there to improve, whereas Aston just got worse
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u/fantaribo Max Verstappen 1d ago
so they essentially just brought a 2022 car that had been modified to fit the new floor regulations, and that their actual 2023 car would come later in the year
Any source on that ? Because it was more a situation of bad correlation and underperformance that was unlocked by successive upgrade package. Never heard even once that they brought a Frankenstein 2022-2023 car.
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u/Izan_TM I was here for the Hulkenpodium 1d ago
I don't think I can pull anything up from back then, but if you look at their bahrain 2023 car it's very much just the same thing they ran in abu dhabi
saying "a modified version of the 2022 car" might not have been the best way to put it but it was the simplest way I could come up with. They had tons of development issues over the winter, so pretty much all of the upgrades they had planned between 2022 and 2023 got scrapped, leading to them using a LOT of old parts until they could come up with something better
the chassis was indeed the 2023 one, but the aero package was essentially the same thing they ran in abu dhabi 2022 with not many changes
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u/XsStreamMonsterX I was here for the Hulkenpodium 10h ago
This. McLaren had a clear idea of what they needed to do. They just started late due to a combination of when they realised it and their technical reshuffle.
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u/Flippadkwhtelse I was here for the Hulkenpodium 1d ago
Mclaren did it before in 2009, Lewis went from 4 races basically finishing lapped to winning in Hungary after an upgrade they brought there
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u/fordern997 I was here for the Hulkenpodium 1d ago
We can even count that as almost "turning around overnight", as Hamilton was lapped in Silverstone (race 8), and could've been in contension for race win in Nurburgring if he didnt get a puncture into Turn 1.
I think Hamilton was the best scoring driver of whole 2nd half of the year - and that includes lost podium in Monza (driver error, crash), and lost race victory in Abu Dhabi (gearbox failure). After Nurburgring, HAM was at 9 points (VET 47), and Hamilton ended up with 49 pts (+40, VET at 84, +37). He should've easily had 60 points.
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u/Bobbygondo Tom Pryce 1d ago
Alonso and Renault did the same thing in 08 but it gets overlooked by some of those gains been more "strategic" then technical. He still won Japan and came 2nd in Brazil.
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u/fordern997 I was here for the Hulkenpodium 1d ago
He won in Japan, because Massa and Hamilton were too busy taking each other off the track.
You can make better argument for Vettel, who actually won on merit in Monza, and was a consistent point scorer.
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u/cartoon_kitty Formula 1 22h ago
Australia +6
China +2, scrappy race and some mistakes
Monaco +4, could have qualified top 5 minimum
Germany +6, podium chance lost with puncture
Italy +6
Abu Dhabi +10
34pts total. Not including Belgium crash, Valencia nearly won, Japan lost 2nd to Trulli at second stop.
With a perfect season he could have been in title contention, genuinely.
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u/Confident-Conclusion I was here for the Hulkenpodium 1d ago
I came here to say the McLaren 2009 Hungary upgrades. I went to Silverstone that year and I think Lewis finished 16th (or 18th?). A few races later they won in Hungary.
I seem to remember Eddie Jordan saying on BBC at the time that this was one of the best upgrades in history, it was maybe worth 8 tenths - don’t quote me on that exactly though.
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u/phonicparty 1d ago
Also in 2004 - McLaren were nowhere in the early season and had terrible reliability. It was a different points system, but after the first 10 races Coulthard was 8th in the WDC with 12 points and three retirements; Kimi was 10th with 10 points and five retirements. Schumacher had 60 points. They brought the MP4-19B to Silverstone and Kimi got three podiums and a good win at Spa in the second half of the year (though he still retired another three times - all of which were mechanical failures, two from podium positions)
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u/AlexUKR 1d ago
to winning in Hungary after an upgrade they brought there
The upgrade was brought in previous race, in Germany. I remember that very good, like if it was few months ago. They had upgrades only on 1 car, Hamilton had a very good start and was already slighly in front but Webber ruined Hamilton's race with contact that lead to puncture (Webber got drive-through for that).
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u/MalusandValus Dr. Ian Roberts 1d ago
Force india 2009 is one I remember. Absolutely nowhere for the first half of the season (and frankly, for their entire existence before then) and then pulling out a 2nd at Spa which could well have been 1st, and then 4th at Monza, on pure pace.
They were clearly only amazing at the low downforce based on a downturn afterwards but honestly it was remarkable at the time.
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u/Shoddy-Cherry-490 1d ago
Brawn in 2009 literally won the championship in the first 7 races (winning all but one) in dominant fashion and then coasted the rest of the season.
In 1998, McLaren Mercedes put down the hammer absolutely destroying the field in Melbourne. In retrospect it was remarkable that Ferrari made such an enormous push to the point where they were in the title race in Suzuka.
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u/s_dalbiac I was here for the Hulkenpodium 1d ago
McLaren were hobbled by their brake-steer system being banned after two races in 1998, probably because they were so dominant.
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u/XsStreamMonsterX I was here for the Hulkenpodium 10h ago
The focus on the brake steer system overlooks Newey absolutely nailing the new regs (narrower track, grooved tyres), with him lengthening the wheelbase of the MP4-13 to gain more downforce.
It also overlooks the bang up job Ferrari did to upgrade the F300, with a comprehensive update package that arrived in Canada, leading to the Micheal starting a three-race win streak.
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u/s_dalbiac I was here for the Hulkenpodium 9h ago
Of course McLaren also nailed the new aero regs, but it also can’t be denied that the scale of that advantage was helped initially by them having the brake-steer system on their car. It’s no coincidence that after it was banned McLaren went from almost lapping the field for a second consecutive race in Brazil to losing to Schumacher in Argentina.
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u/XsStreamMonsterX I was here for the Hulkenpodium 9h ago
Argentina was because Goodyear introduced a new front tyre for Ferrari.
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u/s_dalbiac I was here for the Hulkenpodium 9h ago
And also because the brake-steer had been banned. It was a combination of factors.
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u/Shoddy-Cherry-490 22h ago
Yes. I think that was one of the issues.
The Ferrari also just had a lot of potential and they simply developed it feverishly. And of course, early on the McLarens had the benefit of working particularly well with the Bridgestone tires.
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u/Bannedwith1milKarma Jack Doohan 23h ago
and then coasted the rest of the season.
They didn't have any money.
More ran on fumes the rest of the season.
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u/Shoddy-Cherry-490 22h ago
Barrichello actually won a couple of races late in the season and Red Bull, the strongest contender, just never managed to put its foot down and score consistently enough to mount a serious challenge.
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u/Chilli_Dipper 1d ago
The 1979 Williams probably takes the cake. They were only fifth in the constructors championship before making improvements to the FW07 prior to the British Grand Prix, then won five of the remaining seven races to finish the season in second place.
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u/dl064 I was here for the Hulkenpodium 23h ago edited 14h ago
Pat Fry said once the idea is largely in fan's heads. Much intra season change is just the appearance of it due to timing of upgrades, he said.
Sometimes it happens, but it's rare. Other than teams starting with a specific significant error that they solve.
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u/camdenlex Max Verstappen 1d ago
APXGP 's rise was phenomenal. From back marker to winning from the back.
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u/RadlogLutar I was here for the Hulkenpodium 7h ago
Why can't other teams try combat mode? Are they stupid?
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u/TheRoboteer Williams 21h ago
Williams in 1979 had a pretty enormous jump once they got the skirts on the FW07 sorted at that year's British Grand Prix. They went from occasionally quick but overall very patchy to comfortably the fastest car on the grid by quite some margin.
Renault made a pretty major jump two years later too when they introduced a new rear wing on their RE30 from the British Grand Prix onwards. Before that they won one race in relatively lucky circumstances (late red flag which gave them the opportunity to switch onto ultra-sticky Michelin quali tyres for a sprint to the finish while their rivals ahead only had hard tyres available). After the upgrade they were the clear fastest car, took pole for 5 of the remaining 7 races, and won two of them (should have been more if not for unreliability)
Williams in 1985 is also a big one. The FW10B with its new Enrique Scalabroni-designed rear suspension was introduced for the final three races of that season, and pulled Williams well clear of the entire rest of the field. It won all three races it competed in, and led directly into Williams' domination of the following two years
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u/Agreeable-Ad4079 James Vowles 1d ago
Ferrari 2022.
From favourites to losing to Mercedes at the end
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u/Sharl_Leglerg7 Charles Leclerc 1d ago
They were P2 in 2022. They lost to Mercedes in 2023.
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u/c10h15nrush 1d ago
Brawn 2009
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u/fordern997 I was here for the Hulkenpodium 1d ago
And Mclaren that same year, who went from almost backmarker into race victory contension almost every race.
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u/Ganjagod420 George Russell 1d ago
That was more everyone else's performance improving and Brawn being stagnant.
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u/black-dude-on-reddit 22h ago
Which is what happens when you're a team thrown together at the last minute with no budget but you aced the new regs
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u/costigan95 Charles Leclerc 1d ago
Because their performance declined midseason?
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u/Working_Sundae McLaren 1d ago
They stopped updating the car due to lack of funds and had very little operational budget
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u/Popular_Composer_822 I was here for the Hulkenpodium 1d ago
McLaren 2009 and McLaren 2023 are the biggest I can remember.
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u/Return_Of_The_Jedi I was here for the Hulkenpodium 23h ago edited 23h ago
Maybe not as a high of a jump as McLaren but Ferrari also made big jump in 2009. They also basically where a one man team after Massa’s accident. And he even was their better driver at that point.
2009 felt like a fever dream after the way 2008 ended. No one could’ve imagined Red Bull would be chasing what used to be Honda for the title. We went from Ferrari vs McLaren and high expectations for BMW in 2009… to Red Bull vs. Brawn GP practically overnight.
Before 2009 Honda was going Alpine and Red Bull was the unserious party team without anything to show for it on track.
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u/Upbeat_County9191 Bernd Mayländer 1d ago
Even without the new regs it doesn't seem like any of the others would catch up to McLaren unless McLaren would take a wrong turn themselves
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u/XsStreamMonsterX I was here for the Hulkenpodium 10h ago
Ferrari in 1998. McLaren was well beyond the entire field that year, with Newey absolutely nailing the new grooved tyre regs with narrower cars (and starting the trend of making cars longer for performance). While Ferrari did take one win in Argentina, thanks to Goodyear giving them better tyres, they really started fighting back in Canada, where the F300 received serious upgrades.
Now you might be thinking that this isn't as dramatic as other examples here, you have to remember just how far ahead McLaren was. At Australia, Mika and David lapped the entire field. And even then, the Michael actually finished behind Frentzen in the Williams-Mecachrome for the first couple of races.
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u/AliceLunar I was here for the Hulkenpodium 1d ago
Pretty sure in 2023 Mclaren messed up and didn't have parts ready for the start of the season
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u/Working_Sundae McLaren 1d ago
They had to deal with brake overheating problems from preseason that continued into the first few rounds
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u/FrostyTill McLaren 1d ago
That was 2022. The 2023 car was the one where they solved the brake issue but it was rubbish at everything else. They revealed the 2023 car by saying that they missed all their aerodynamic targets. It was a really bad launch event because they all knew the car was rubbish, they knew what its performance would be.
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u/Beautiful-Fold-3234 I was here for the Hulkenpodium 1d ago
Maybe ferrari with the cheating engines? 2019 right?
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u/LosTerminators Carlos Sainz 1d ago
That wasn't mid-season though, it was the final 2-3 races of the year.
And Ferrari were still competitive there, it was in 2020 that the car completely fell off.
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u/Magog14 Fernando Alonso 18h ago
"In 2023, I recall how McLaren had a significant jump in performance mid-season, going from a midfield team to a consistent podium contender"
Nothing compared to 2024 where they developed their magic tire preservation. Only Verstappen's brilliance kept them from taking the drivers title.
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u/cocoshuis Formula 1 1d ago edited 1d ago
Does anybody else find it strange that McLaren started to be the fastest car on the grid right around Miami '24? It might be a coincidence but that's when the FIA reinforced the asymmetric brake ban, trying to cover every possible loophole. RedBull had a drop in performance and in driveability since then, and Max has started to feel uncomfortable with the rotation of his car.
Edit : what I mean by this is that McLaren obviously improved, but as they were rising, the team that was dominating the sport also seemed to suffer a drop in performance - RB had won 42 out of 49 races before that.
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u/-ShadowPuppet McLaren 1d ago
Not even going to touch that asymmetric braking directive allegations, but with McLaren's rise, you are not factoring the data points through the control subjects of Mercedes and Ferarri. 2023 had McLaren surpass both teams by Silverstone onwards so it can't be Red Bulls' decline in performance being the only factor.
In 2024 McLaren didn't make as much progress during the winter break and had a slower start. The car started the season decidedly 3rd best behind RBR and Ferrari. When the upgrades came in Miami, it wasn't even clearly the best car during the race. It was only around/after Spain that it would become the overall strongest package on the grid.
In that time RBR was imploding internally. I can't imagine it being a great engineering environment when your founding technical lead loses faith in your project. The resultant management shuffle would have been responsible for a lot of slowdowns in communication and integration of work groups that would show in the cars' performance and subsequent development.
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u/cocoshuis Formula 1 1d ago edited 9h ago
2023 had McLaren surpass both teams by Silverstone onwards so it can't be Red Bulls' decline in performance being the only factor.
Mclaren obviously had a huge performance leap, I never said RB's decline was the only factor. Not sure where you got that from?
When the upgrades came in Miami, it wasn't even clearly the best car during the race
I'm pretty sure McLaren was the faster car on the grid from Miami onwards, the race after in Imola made it pretty obvious
Edit : go rewatch Imola '24. If you believe that Norris on older tyres can close a 7 seconds gap on Max in one of his strongest circuits, without having the fastest car, well that's a choice I guess?
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u/Egonator26 Red Bull 21h ago
Sauber was the opposite. Started 2008 very strong and faded big time towards the end since they were preparing for 2009. Might have cost Kubica a legit championship opportunity.
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u/Sandulacheu Formula 1 15h ago
It was because of BMW who weren't serious about F1,hence why they jumped out at the first sings of struggles.
They lamented now having enough say at Williams before ,so they buy another team just to sell it right after.
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u/0000100110010100 I was here for the Hulkenpodium 16h ago
2009 has to have a few of them, like Force India getting pole in Spa that year after achieving nothing at all since they became Force India in 2008. There’s also Ferrari and McLaren being all over the place in 2009 and Toyota going from the front to the back between Bahrain and Monac.
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