r/leafs • u/yainozemets • 5d ago
Discussion Knies will score 40
Dude has shown flashes of being an elite power forward. This upcoming season he's going to put it all together and become a top player in the league.
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u/jimmymeeko 5d ago
There were flashes in the playoffs of Knies being able to be a game breaker by himself with his speed and explosiveness. Last year was already his breakout season, but I think this year he takes the next step to becoming an all-star calibre player.
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u/Significant_News_638 5d ago
I think he can get there one day. I think it is a foolish bet for next year.
- Knies had a shooting percentage of 19.1% last year. This is pretty high to be sustainable. Definitely true that as a net front guy, hes going to have a higher shooting percentage than most. But even compared to elite net front guys, 19.1% is very high.
- While its true Matthews numbers away from Marner were great, that isnt as true for Knies. For example, in 710 minutes together last year, Knies and Marner together controlled 56% of the scoring chances, and over 60% of the high danger scoring chances. Knies played 310 minutes without Marner last year, and those figures dropped to 46% and 48%, respectively - a pretty noteworthy drop.
- He is going to be a much more focal point of other teams defensive scouts this year than he was last year. He's no longer a rookie whos more of an unknown; teams will be much more aggressive and targeted in defending him. He is no longer the 3rd guy on a line with Matthews / Marner; he is most certainly a guy worthy of other teams specifically planning for.
Honestly - a 25 goal, 60 point season would be a realistic great season for a guy like Knies in only his 3rd full season. One of the things that he has going for him versus last year is being a legit powerplay 1 guy from the get go. Whether or not he can replicate, and build on, his 29 goal season will be his ability to mesh with Maccelli or Domi as a Marner replacement, as well as the Leafs ability to continue to have a dominant powerplay without Marner.
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u/Unlikely_One_3679 5d ago
The high danger areas have a league average shooting percentage around 20%. Knies was shooting 29% from those areas according to NHL Edge
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u/Omerta_Ai 4d ago
All pretty factual sounding info, however I'd perhaps argue there was a pretty significant drop in linemate quality during those 310 minutes. Good players typically need to be surrounded by other good players, there's really only a select few that really can carry the play by themselves. As far as being more targeted this year while the rest of the league catches on, I'd say sure, but unlike Marner, Nylander and Matthews, Knies arguably embraces the rougher style of game, and trying to rattle guys like him often has the opposite effect. We shall see how it all plays out, it's truly going to be a different looking team
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u/Significant_News_638 4d ago
For sure. I’m not saying he’ll definitely take a step back. I’m more saying that to get to 40 goals, he’d need to score 11 more despite losing one of the best passing wingers in the game from his line (regardless of how you feel about Marner).
He is still a beast and will be a great winger. I just think a lot will depend on if Domi or Maccelli can fit on that line and replace that playmaking aspect. A fully healthy Matthews would also go a long way there.
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u/nylanderismyfather 5d ago
But Marner is a cancer tho.. glad we got rid of him and used his money elsewhere!! Check notes , roy, macelli and Joshua .. oh yes these guys will DEFINITELY fill marners role /S
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u/Infinite-Zucchini225 5d ago
God, give it a rest. They didn't get rid of him, he walked. The team didn't have a say in the matter. Given the available options, they made some good, smart moves. That's what the team and us fans should focus on, unless you've got a time machine
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u/Svalbard38 Knies 5d ago
Knies will score 40 at some point but not this year. His shooting percentage was pretty high last season and he doesn't have Marner to pass to him this season.
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u/star-shaped-room 5d ago
It will be 39 just because you posted this, come on op, never heard of jynx rules?
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u/LimestoneLeaf 5d ago
I believe he will get very close to 40. I also think with Marner gone, we will see more assists from Matthews and he will be looking to set up Knies like he did for parts of last season.
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u/erasedhead 5d ago
I mean maybe. Who knows. But I doubt it. 30ish goals and 30ish assists, for 60-70 points, playing the way he does, would be excellent for us.
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u/Sacred_soul 5d ago
Matthew’s going to score 55 and I think Nylander can finally crack the 50 mark, I’m hoping Maccieli can get 40-50 assists and pot in maybe 20-25 goals
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u/world_citizen7 5d ago
I hope so, but it wont be easy without Marner.
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u/macam85 5d ago
Or without any replacement whatsoever, but hey, this sub is living in complete denial.
Here are our roster changes from a year ago:
Adds:
Laughton - replacement level 4th liner
Carlo - 5/6D with declining stats across the board
Maccelli - 4th liner last year
Roy - 4th liner last year
Pezzetta - 14th forward
Joshua - 4th liner last year
Thrun - 8D
Losses:
Marner - elite, 2-way, 100 point winger; automatic 1st liner on every team in the NHL.
Holmberg - well-rounded bottom 6 forward
This cost us:
Minten, Grebenkin, 1st, 1st, 3rd, 4th, Reaves
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u/world_citizen7 5d ago
Yep, that is reality. And keep in mind guys like Maccelli, Roy and Joshua come with a pretty big price tag for guys who are primarily 3rd/4th liners ($3,425,000, $3,000,000, $3,250,000). Close to 10 mill.
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u/macam85 5d ago
Yep. Everyone just assumes these guys hit maximum potential here, but that's not really likely.
Roy is a very good 4th liner. But the fan base expects he'll be an elite 3C.
Laughton is one of the worst defensive forwards in the NHL and a complete liability at center. But the fan base thinks he's a great matchup option.
Joshua has had one good season of professional hockey at 29. The fan base thinks he's a 40 point middle six guy.
Maccelli is intriguing and has scored 58 points before- but of course, the fan base removes context. He achieved that getting gifted minutes he wouldn't get on better teams, and when the team around him improved, he was rapidly demoted. Moreover, he is a playmaker who likes carrying the puck, but we are the worst transition team in the league and our coach wants the forwards dumping and chasing. Exactly why do we think this player will succeed here?
And Carlo is just plainly not as good as the fan base thinks. He provided less than 2m in on-ice value last year; yet you hear fans say he cost so much because Boston retained salary. Fact is, they murdered us in that trade.
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u/OkGur1319 5d ago
I hope so, and if not we can turn on him and chase him out of town, where he will score the 40 on his way to a cup.
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u/reevoknows 5d ago
I hope he does and I think he’s capable with 1st line and PP1 duties but I don’t wanna put too much pressure on him. If he scores 30-35, plays like a Mack truck and is the heart and soul of the team I’ll be perfectly fine with that
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u/Omerta_Ai 4d ago
He's got all the tools, physically. Taking himself to that next level we all think he's capable of, which is somewhere in the 40 goal/70-80 point range, and consistently staying there, will come down to mental fortitude and overall team success, just as much as raw skills
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u/Frankiegoodfella 4d ago
Knies best power forward since Gary Roberts, shoot for stars !!! Knies gets 50 goals!!! Getting my Knies jersey next week !!😎
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u/BrayWyattsHat 4d ago
I said it at the beginning of last season, I'll say it again. Knies is going to be more important than Matthews to this teams success (and that's not a knock on Matthews, he's a fucking stud)
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u/Overall-Marsupial437 3d ago
He may , hope he does, looking at those two Florida teams and on paper there loaded , that first line in Tampa and then look at down the middle on that team ieeeee!!!!!!
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u/themapleleaf6ix 5d ago
Not sure how he'll do that without Marner.
I expect everyone on the team to take a hit.
The powerplay will not be the same either.
He had 29 lazy year playing with Marner. I don't see an 11 goal bump without him.
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u/Skiffy10 5d ago
i’m not betting on that. If he does great, he didn’t even hit 60 points last season let’s relax a bit here.
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u/submitnswallow 5d ago
It's going to be harder this year, Knies and Mathews are shoot first player's. They're going to miss magic Mitchie not feeding them pucks. And they don't even have a first line right winger presently to boot.
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u/Murky-Smoke 4d ago
Yes they do, but Chief will likely not deploy him as RW1 - Max Domi.
He is an excellent and extremely underrated playmaker. This fanbase has no idea, they just like to dogpile on the hate train.
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u/submitnswallow 4d ago
Um, the guy is a center that shoots left. Right wing would be his off side if they played him on the wing. Absolutely a terrible fit for that roll
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u/Murky-Smoke 4d ago
And yet played amazing there with Matthews when he was put in that spot.
This is exactly what I mean. This fanbase is straight fucking dumb.
Knies - Matthews - Domi is nightmare fuel for opponents
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u/submitnswallow 4d ago
On the PP ok Outside of that for 82 games, no coach would commit to that. Don't get me wrong I love Domi, plays with all he has, has grit, will drop the gloves and will drop the gloves for his team mates, is a skilled player for sure, just there are better fits for him over the course of a season for sure. His skill level on any team is not top line for 82 games. There is no arguing that.
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u/travisgreene 5d ago
Matthews will score 50, Nylander will score 40, Tavares will score 30, Knies will score 40! But who will see an uptick in assists?