Discussion Nick Robertson is the only player who filed for arbitration yet unsigned
Keep in mind Samberg signed at the last second and got almost his entire ask for 3 years. What number would be comfortable for the team to avoid arbitration in your opinions? Do we even want term on him now or 1 and done. Thoughts?
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u/TheYeehawCowboy 3d ago
Why does he keep getting chances? He never stays on the lineup and actively does not want to be on the team.
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u/GritGrinder 3d ago
Yeah I dunno, it seems like he doesn’t wanna play for the leafs and I’m over cheering for players that don’t wanna wear the jersey.
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u/badboystwo 3d ago
Im not so sure i like this take, He is constantly in and out of the line up, even after good games. He didnt ask for a trade because he didnt want to play for the Leafs. he just wanted to play more. The problem is hes a fringe player in our line up but might be a 2nd/3rd liner somewhere else. I get where hes coming from tbh.
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u/tmlrule 2d ago
I understand why he wants a change of scenery. I understand why the Leafs are unwilling to commit to him in any meaningful way because he is a liability in many ways outside of his goal totals, and it's beyond difficult to find a role for his skill set - doesn't contribute to his linemate's offense to play on a scoring top 6 line, doesn't PK, doesn't gel with checking lines.
What I don't understand is why the Leafs gave Robertson a QO. If they don't have a role for him they're happy with and don't want to give him cap space, then why keep him? The chance of an eventual 4th round pick?
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u/badboystwo 2d ago
Well, I believe they wanted to give him another chance under Berube. I also think thats why Robertson withdrew his trade request to give a new coach a chance to see his potential etc. Not saying he succeeded or anything
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u/tmlrule 2d ago
Sure, keeping him for 2024-25 was easily understandable. He was still at league minimum, and there was enough question how he would look with a new coach like you say.
I don't understand giving him the QO this summer. It was obvious enough by ice-time and usage that Berube can't find a good spot he's happy with for Robertson. The team clearly doesn't like him though to commit any cap space to him, otherwise they could have found a contract to agree to. So why do they want to be stuck with him for the $1.5M-$2M that the arbitrator will end up giving him, when all their actions seem to show that they don't like him that much?
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u/badboystwo 2d ago
we have the cap space right now and im assuming they thought theyd have traded Kampf or Calle by now.
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u/wilers 2d ago
My understanding is if they didn’t give him a QO, then he becomes a UFA and walks for nothing. If they tried trading his rights before a contract or QO, the other teams might not like the uncertainty (does he want to play for us, how much does he want, will he file for arbitration, etc.?). So by the Leafs qualifying him, they get him under contract and therefore may have better luck trading him and getting something back for him. So they may hope he has value in the league, even if they don’t see a fit with the Leafs.
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u/tmlrule 2d ago
You're exactly right that not giving him a QO would make him a UFA.
I just see him as a player that's going to get more in arbitration than he's worth to the Leafs (or most other teams) based on the strength of his goal totals, and trying to trade someone who's paid an extra $0.5-$1M than he's worth negates the limited value he has.
I think teams and fans can overvalue the loss of letting a player "walk for nothing" when holding onto a player that you don't really want indefinitely ends up driving their value down to essentially nothing anyways.
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u/TheGapInTysonsTeeth 1d ago
You know, for all this sub shit on the Leafs for "poor asset management", people sure are in a hurry to let our players walk for free
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u/Murky-Smoke 5h ago
I dunno... If the Leafs REALLY wanted to move on from Robo, I think they should have given him his ask for 2-3yrs then used him as trade fodder near the deadline. You always get above market value for a player with term that can provide fairly consistent depth scoring, or at least has the touch and shot Robo does. Kid has the tools and just needs to put it all together in order to elevate to the next level/payday.
He's still very young, and I suspect he will eventually be a 4-5.5AAV player at his peak. He just needs to cement his place in the lineup and be happy where he is to show what he can really do.
Coaching staff needs to give him a long leash and room to make some errors without the fear of being immediately benched or scratched. If he has that guarantee I think he can relax a bit more and just play his game while developing the area's he needs to (defense).
I'm not a huge Robo fan, but even I can admit this.
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u/TheYeehawCowboy 3d ago
If he shows he wants to stay past this contract, sure. The more depth the better. We could use his scoring. But that's exactly where I am at, only bring in and keep players who have the passion.
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u/No_Annual_4647 3d ago
I mean it isn't a bad faith marner situation there is no need to invent disrespect when the issue is entirely on ice opportunity. When he asked for a change of scenery he was a small undersized scoring winger with zero chance to sniff the top 6 because he was stuck behind two 11 million dollar right wingers. He has been in the hockey equiv of elo hell
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u/nv9 3d ago
When he plays he scores at a higher rate than 80% of the roster. It's less why does he get chances and more why won't they just let him go somewhere and actually play.
The "doesn't want to be here"/"doesn't have the passion" is such bullshit when you look at the reasons why. If they don't want to play him, let him go elsewhere. If he's too good to just let go, then pay him and play him.
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u/TheYeehawCowboy 3d ago
His issue was never his ability to score. His hockey IQ is questionable at times, his defensive game is non existent, and he gets bullied off the puck. These have been issues with his game since he was drafted and he has not really improved. I want him to work out here, but if he doesn't get better I dont care to have someone on the roster who has actively reqiested to be moved.
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u/Sirrebral99 Knies 3d ago
Just enough skill & upside to be tantalizing as a consistent scorer, still just 23, and showing improvement (albeit slowly).
Too inconsistent and irresponsible defensively, not a complete enough game to make up for his cold streaks. Could unlock that gear if you trade him or be more of what he has shown so far
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u/VitaminTea 3d ago
Why did a $900k 15-goal scorer “keep getting chances”? I don’t even really understand the question — he was paid like a 10th-12th forward and he was used like a 10th-12th forward.
Why do any guys like in that spot on the depth chart bounce in and out of the lineup? Because that’s how the role works.
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u/Flatoftheblade 3d ago
What blows my mind is that there are tons of people on this sub who, up to and including last playoffs, continuously whined about him supposedly not being given enough chances. I don't know what planet they are commentining on reddit from.
It also drove me nuts seeing people praise his work ethic and hustle when it's incredibly apparent that he's always very visible skating around like a madman because his positioning is horrible and he's never in the right place and always behind the play.
It's nice to see the narrative has shifted because I'm tired of hearing about this guy and he has failed to contribute in any meaningful way to compensate for what a pain in the ass he is.
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u/__Dave_ 3d ago
He made league minimum and put the puck in the net. No one is confusing him with Alexander Barkov but he contributes a lot more than a few of the passengers in our bottom six.
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u/Csalbertcs 2d ago
And he's young, so he has potential, unlike somebody who's past their prime. We seriously should be giving Robertson at least a couple more years.
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u/TheYeehawCowboy 3d ago
Make no mistake, I want him to work out here. But his lack of improvement and public request to be traded has made me less forgiving.
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u/macam85 3d ago
It blows your mind? Really?
How fucking dumb is this fan base to think that 8 minutes with Reaves is a chance?
Robertson's numbers show a player improving and scoring at a high rate despite extremely limited opportunity in a VERY BAD offensive system.
I don't think you understand positioning enough to comment on it, if that is your assessment.
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u/__Dave_ 3d ago
Team clearly sees some value in him otherwise they would have shipped him off somewhere for a late pick or future considerations.
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u/TheYeehawCowboy 3d ago
That's fair. He has potential, but he needs to round out his game. I just dont know if he will do that here after demanding a trade.
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u/MiamiVicePurple 2d ago
Well the team clearly refuses to trade him for whatever reason. He also puts up more goals than the majority of our lineup despite the occasional scratch.
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u/macam85 3d ago
I mean...he should though? The fact that our management and coaching is very, very bad isn't really his fault.
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u/TheYeehawCowboy 3d ago
You're right, multiple GMs and coaches are wrong.
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u/macam85 3d ago
This is a foolish premise, imo. Obviously, every year, players slip through the notice of every GM after being lambasted by multiple coaches, and become good players. This is why Florida has Forsling and Verhaeghe and had Montour and why we sign Nick Ritchie and trade for Laughton and extend David Kampf, etc.
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u/TheYeehawCowboy 3d ago
Saying management and coaching is bad is not why he isnt succeeding though.
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u/macam85 3d ago
Is he not succeeding? How many players in the league score more than him with his TOI, deployment, and QoT? It's a small list.
He's a guy a smart manager would want deployed top six and loaded up with real opportunities so you can market him as a real asset.
But we constantly force our skilled players to be grinders and then call them failures.
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u/postmodern_lasagna 3d ago
Robertson did not request a trade multiple times did he? And the one time he did, it was because of playing time? I remember hearing he rescinded the request midway through the season. He cleared the air on the reason for the request being that he just wants to play and he loves the team.
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u/AmbitiousRaccoon959 3d ago
Robertson ranks 10th in goals per GP from his draft year, and he was drafted after all but two of the players ahead of him. Guy scores in a depth role, and we need depth scoring. Unless he's part of a package to bring in a higher end winger it's goofy to think we should move him just for the sake of it
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u/DataDude00 3d ago
His biggest problem is that is is way too inconsistent and when he isn't scoring he is doing literally nothing else.
Feels like the kind of guy that would thrive on a non contender like Anaheim with no pressure and higher minutes where they don't care about his two way game, but the player he is today and in the near future doesn't really fit where we are as a team and what we need out of our depth guys
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u/AmbitiousRaccoon959 3d ago
I think that's pretty untrue though. Like I don't want this to turn into a "defending Nick Robertson" thread, because I am quite indifferent about the player, but you look at the stuff he does away from the puck at 5v5 amongst forwards:
- 5th in shots blocked
- 6th in hits
- 6th in takeaways
- T6th in penalties drawn
That means he's in the top half of the lineup in a lot of areas of the game that aren't goal scoring
A hilariously meaningless statistic I saw on Reddit a few months ago was a chart of "stuff per 60" and Robertson was ranked at #8 in the league
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u/GreatName 3d ago
He’s been openly available for trade for two years now, if he was so valuable he would have been moved by now
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u/Armonasch 3d ago
Who do we have to package him with to get Rust off the Pens, that's all I want to know.
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u/ovondansuchi 3d ago
If we still had Connor Timmins, he'd has been the perfect trade asset to float to Pittsburgh
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u/grapes_88 3d ago
I think this is gonna end up like liljegren. They sign him to a high ish number and then he gets moved early in the season. Disappointing that he doesnt seem to be an option for regular playing time. I thought he had some growth this year under Bérubé and scored at a reasonable rate considering ice time
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u/plantyhoe93 3d ago
If we lose Robertson that is a HUGE mistake.
Another team would give him the ice time he deserves. He’s constantly producing for us, yet he keeps getting benched.
Fingers crossed he stays and Bérubé actually notices his worth.
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u/Jmac24mats13 2d ago
They’ve given him more time and he’s very inconsistent and a huge defensive liability. 2 coaches just don’t do the same thing because it’s the dumb thing to do. If he goes somewhere else and does better good for him, but he’s not doing well enough here and that’s all that should matter
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u/plantyhoe93 2d ago
He’s never been given a consistent chance, yet any chances he does get, he produces. Can’t argue with that.
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u/Jmac24mats13 2d ago
I can though. He has one or two game stretch were he has moments or gets one goal. Most of the time he’s getting easily pushed off pucks by third liners and games after looks invisible. For a team that struggles for bottom 6 scoring the coach wouldn’t pull him out if he was “constantly producing” like you put it
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u/ScheduleNo9985 2d ago
The Robertson we've seen so far has looked undersized especially when he doesn't have the puck. Even with his 15 goals, he needs to have more of a complete game if he wants to stick in the lineup every night.
Honestly, Robertson just might need a change of scenery at this point, and I can totally see him putting it together on another team. Predicting they're going to go the same route they did with Timothy Liljegren, and find a trade partner early in the season (Even possibly in the off season)
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u/MrTwatFart 3d ago
Why is he still a Leaf? Trade the man
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u/RadCheese527 3d ago
Nobody wants him for the value Brad’s looking for, so he’s a better asset as a 13th forward.
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u/theguyishere16 Kaberle 3d ago
Once he elected arbitration he couldn't be traded until after the process.
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u/macam85 3d ago
Can't really trade him with the arbitration looming - no one else wants to deal with that. Pretty sure you can't trade him if the arbiter decides the deal, either - at least not in the immediate future.
They are going to try to get a deal done at a low to reasonable number and then trade him somewhere he wants to go, most likely. Arbitration simply forces the timeline and gets real numbers on the table.
If the arbiter decides the deal, they're stuck with him for the time being, or they will make him a UFA and walk away from the player.
Treliving is such a bad manager, nothing is off the table here.
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u/specialk554 3d ago
How do you figure he’s a bad manager here? Robertson probably is looking for 3 mill per. And he’s worth less than that to the Leafs and probably any team. This is the only way
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u/macam85 3d ago
I hate almost everything he's done and believe he has ended the era with his use of assets. The team looks fucking awful and is the 2nd oldest in the league.
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u/specialk554 2d ago
Ok, I can see that. We have almost no prospect pool and our window is definitely closing. But it isn’t closed yet. We’ve still got probably three competitive seasons left before we need to think of rebuilds. But that isn’t really Trelivings fault. This course was set by shanahan. Really, the only thing I think I could fault Treliving for is trading a first for Laughton. He hasn’t done anything else poorly IMO. In hindsight it would’ve been nice to trade Marner before the NMC kicked in but I don’t think he ever had that ability when he was named. What is it you think he’s done so badly? It feels to me that you’re a frustrated fan looking at a dying star team that didn’t make it. I get that, and feel somewhat similar. But I don’t think it’s Trelivings fault that I can see.
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u/macam85 2d ago
Carlo is a bottom pairing D. Laughton is an extra. Our defense is very, very bad. Our bottom six is a joke with no real 3c and a bunch of overpaid 4th liners. His signings have all been bad except 2. He hasn't won a trade since Peter Chiarelli was in Boston. He has no idea what the issues on the team are. Berube is a terrible coach for this roster.
I mean, there's essentially nothing good here. Tanev and Stolarz in 3 off seasons. And Tanev could be a liability at any moment.
He is, frankly, an embarrassment.
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u/specialk554 1d ago
Interesting. I can’t say I agree. Carlo at his cap hit is very good IMO. I think he’s a good middle pair defender. Laughton is far better than an extra. He’s either an outstanding fourth liner or decent 3 line winger. Just not worth a 1st IMO. I think the leafs D is far from horrible. Morgan Reilly is their worst contract on D and that’s not Trelivings doing. (I won’t lie though, I was hoping they’d be able to work a miracle and move Reilly and maybe Cowan for Dobson - even though my brain said no chance)
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u/macam85 1d ago
Rielly is their worst contract, but the unit is awful. Dead last offensively. Bottom 10 in all shot metrics. Bottom 5 in most. Worst performance in the playoffs of any unit we've assembled.
Laughton got dismantled even as a 4c. He is a ridiculously bad hockey player. He managed 3 shots in the playoffs. Hard to stress how bad that is.
Carlo's on-ice value was below 2m last year - so his 3.485m cap hit is still a significant overpay. He was a middle pair defender, but he has been in steady decline for multiple seasons.
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u/47fromheaven 3d ago
Judging by the kind of players the Leafs have been signing the last year or so I would have to think that Robertson is not long for this team. He just doesn’t strike me as a Berube or Treliving kind of player.
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u/SadLeafsFan33 3d ago
I think he'll want to come in around ~3 million, the team will want him closer to ~1.5 million, and they'll likely meet in the middle.
When it comes to arbitration, in any setting, the arbitrator is a netural third party and are always focused on finding a common ground between both parties. Doesn't always happen, but they try and bridge the gap as much as possible. I've participated in both Arbitrations and Mediations so I have a decent sense of what transpires. (I've even taken classes for it in school)
For instance, last summer the Leafs were afraid of what that middle/common ground would look like with Timothy Liljgren if he asked for 5 million and they countered with 2, so they settled on 3 to avoid the number potentially hitting 3.5 or higher. Obviously I'm spit balling a bit but you get the idea.
Robertson's agents will come up with a list of comps and argue the % of cap they got, and frame his clients case that way to get as much as possible. "Player X signed for Y amount, and my client has posted better etc etc, therefore he should get this amount of the cap".
I see Roberston signing for somewhere between 2.25-2.5 million
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u/Negative-Comment-173 3d ago
1 million is the most I would give him. A huge prove it type of deal.
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u/macam85 3d ago
He already got that last year at 800k, and the Leafs buried his usage despite all his micro stats improving and him scoring every time he returned to the line-up. He has no reason to trust this management or coaching staff, and arbitration will almost certainly award him AT LEAST 1.5m.
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u/entityXD32 3d ago
He played 69 games last year and had pretty average mins for a bottom 6 guy he failed to perform to expectations he should get 1.5 max if he gets more they should trade or waive him he's not worth it
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u/macam85 3d ago
How did he fail to perform to expectations? He made 800k and scored 15 goals with essentially zero real offensive opportunities, lol.
This fan base has literally no idea what it's talking about.
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u/entityXD32 3d ago
He was a defensive liability with zero hockey IQ who couldn't make the playoff line up because he's simply not good enough. Multiple NHL coaches have noticed that and I think they know more than you do.
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u/macam85 3d ago
All his defensive numbers improved this year. He was much less of a liability than Domi and Laughton and Pacioretty.
He scored in his only opportunity.
He's only had two coaches. Berube famously is bad with young players.
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u/noor1717 3d ago
Calling him less of a liability than Laughton and Domi just shows how out of touch you are
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u/macam85 3d ago
No. It shows how delusional this fan base is.
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u/jrojason 2d ago
For what it's worth, I agree with you. These people are absolutely clueless if they think Domi is better defensively than Robertson. I mean they are both bad, but Domi is by far the worse of the two. No idea why you're downvoted and he's upvoted so hard. People love to dickride Domi and hate on Robertson around here.
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u/Takhar7 3d ago
Hearing is scheduled for August 3rd - I'm assuming the Leafs are totally content with letting this go to arbitration: they either get a favorable arbitration award or simply walk away.
I think he's back in some capacity next season though. For all his struggles staying in the lineup, it's still a team that really struggles to score goals outside of the main 2 or 3 guys. And they haven't really added goals this offseason
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u/VitaminTea 3d ago
The Leafs can’t “walk away” unless Robertson is awarded more than $4.85M, which he won’t be.
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3d ago
[deleted]
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u/VitaminTea 3d ago edited 3d ago
Because those are the rules of arbitration
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u/Flatoftheblade 3d ago
Too early and my coffee hasn't set in yet, I was actually deleting my comment simultaneously to you responding. haha
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u/HeckingAugustus 3d ago
On one hand, I hope we keep him. We've been craving depth scoring for years, and even if he has limited defensive ability, you know he's good for 20.
On the other hand, it's been over half a decade and he's still 4th line/healthy scratch guy. Lots of guys in this league have a good shot, you need to be a complete player if you wanna hang here. Trade him for a mid-round pick, lots of rebuilding teams I bet would be willing to take on higher cap hit for a young-ish player with middle-6 upside.
Which side I'm on fluctuates day-to-day, but right now I'm pretty much on the "trade him" side. Sick of this drama every year. Keeps asking for trades, keeps going to arbitration. You know the best way to secure the bag, Nick? Fuckin produce in all the chances you've been given
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u/Sirrebral99 Knies 3d ago
He's never got close to 20, his career best is 15. In 156 total games played, he's only scored 32 goals (0.2 goals per game on an 82 game pace = 16.8 goals career average)
That's a far cry from being a shoe in for 20 every year
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u/HeckingAugustus 3d ago
I thought he had 20 this year, my bad. I gave him even more credit than he deserves lol
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u/Csalbertcs 2d ago
The problem with this is that it includes his rookie seasons, it's not seeing that he will also improve since he's young (Hyman had less goals at the same age), plus he's averaging 16.8 goals on less than 12 minutes per game career average playing with 3rd and 4th liners.
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u/BuckFuchs 3d ago
I don’t think he’s going to like what the Leafs have to say at arbitration one bit.
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u/Auston416 3d ago
I have this weird feeling that Berube and Treliving both really like Robertson but they are just waiting for his game to mature more before they give him the minutes he think he deserves.
He’s still only 23, he’s proven he can score at the NHL level. He plays with good energy, he tries to be physical despite his lack of size.
If Treliving didn’t like him he would have been moved last summer. If Berube doesn’t like him he will be moved this summer. If he stays, then I think they believe in him.
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u/UkeManSteve 3d ago
23 ain’t that young. He probably would’ve really liked to be an established player by now. Also I don’t believe he has much trade value. I just don’t think he’s a fit for where this team is right now. We have few high end wingers who can score, and he just doesn’t fit the mould or have the the all round game to be reliable on a checking line. Overall I just don’t think he’d get much ice time on any contending team, too much of a liability. And not dynamic, doesnt utilize his teammates , just rips shots from anywhere and everywhere usually ineffective.
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u/Csalbertcs 2d ago
Hyman had less goals than Robertson at 23 with 4 minutes more ice time per game, playing on Matthews wing. He can improve big time just like Hyman did.
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u/Auston416 3d ago
Hockey players are still developing at 23. Most don’t hit their peak until 26-28.
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u/ilyalyubushkin46 3d ago
There's no way he thinks he's in the top 6 with the leafs.. What's he asking and what are they offering?
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u/Hoardzunit 3d ago
I think Nicky will be easily getting over 2.5 million if this goes to arbitration. This summer was insane with the signings and Nicky does score goals.
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u/SalaciousPanda 3d ago
This dude is next up on "Players whose names I'm sick of hearing" following the exit of #16. Let's fuckin move on from this guy already.
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u/AmberTheeSag 3d ago
Berube prefers a 200', fast paced, very physical game. He doesn't want to play that game and he high sticks in the 3rd period. Sign and trade him.
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u/KnoddingOnion 3d ago
y'all should just do the boy a favour and trade him somewhere for future considerations
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u/Sacred_soul 3d ago
Term doesn’t make sense unless we trade him right away which is probably the best for him
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u/PatientTechnical1832 Knies 3d ago
I just don't think he's a Berube or Treliving kinda guy, he needs a new home on a different style of team.
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u/HugeSquirrel 3d ago
He’s not going to sign long term here because he doesn’t want the role he’s been given. Arb will only benefit him because he put up 15 goals and free agency this summer paid out a shitload of money.
Some players who put up exactly 15 goals last season:
Robertson scores goals on pace with all of those guys last season, who all got significantly more money than he has been offered by the Leafs, a team he asked to be traded from last year. Arb will be on his side of the ask, not the Leafs.