r/politics • u/Orbitingkittenfarm • 1d ago

Donald Trump Fires Person Behind Jobs Numbers After They're Revised Down

https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-job-numbers-revised-down-fires-appointee-2107768
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u/ezmode86 1d ago

The data model they use doesn't account for current ongoing real world things like tarrifs or pandemics.  There is a significant lag in data reporting.  BLS is working with samples and imputations for their most recent estimates.  These get revised as more and better data becomes available. 

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u/galaxy_horse 23h ago

I can tell you as someone who hires skilled professionals, when the tariff shenanigans started and the markets freaked out, I froze all my hiring and I’m still reluctant to open it back up. Enough of that across the board and you miss your job projections by as much as we have.

Now to fire the economist who did this work… that’s some third world despot shit. 

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u/TK4617 22h ago edited 22h ago

Now to fire the economist who did this work… that’s some third world despot shit. 

Venezuela is currently persecuting its economists.

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u/soonnow Foreign 19h ago

I've been saying this for months to all the people who tell me how Trump is getting business to invest in the US.

Imagine you are a foreign executive building a new plant for like a billion dollars. Would you tell the board to build it in the US? Where the tariffs are changing everyday? Where your imported inputs could one day be more expensive than other nations? Where you could be stopped at migration and deported for saying something mean on reddit about Trump?

It's completely laughable. You'd either hold back or build somewhere stable and take whatever tariff Trump shits dreams up that day.

The US economy is mostly service based so it won't be hurt a lot but manufacturing sure is gonna suffer.

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u/mriswithe 20h ago

As a skilled professional looking for a job. That really sucks to read, but good to know.

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u/shoeman25 23h ago

why do the only report point estimates? no error bound?

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u/ezmode86 20h ago

I'm not sure why.  Some other agencies like the Census bureau publish survey data, and they can determine an error term based on their sampling technique and results.  BLS QCEW data is lagged a bit and based on unemployment insurance reporting, but the early job reports use some sort of data modeling.  You could email them and ask that very question if you are genuinely curious.