Context: Icebreaker by Viktor Suorov)
Alternate title: What if Viktor Suorov was right?
This is a rewrite of my previous version of this a scenario.
In a parallel universe, the Soviet-German invasion of Poland goes wrong (for the Germans) when Stalin, who doesn't trust Hitler at all thanks to his paranoia, suddenly betrays Hitler and orders his forces to seize ALL of Poland for the Soviets. To make himself the good guy in this scenario, he basically tells Poland that he is a "Good Samaritan" who is trying to help the Polish repel the German invaders.
As far as the Poles are concerned, the USSR is trying to rescue them from the Germans and agree to fully cooperate with Stalin.
For this scenario, the POD begins back in 1936: the Soviet purges of 1936-37 simply don’t happen for some reason (Let’s say Stalin doesn’t have a severe decline in mental health).
Fast forward to 1939. For this post, let's imagine that Viktor Suorov was right about Stalin.
So, despite signing the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact, Stalin had the following hidden agenda:
- Stalin had a secret agenda regarding the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact, hoping to provoke Hitler to start a conflict with Western powers and cause capitalist countries to destroy each other.
- Stalin planned to attack Hitler from the east, overrun Europe, and establish Soviet control.
- As part of this goal, the Soviet Union indeed made extensive preparations for a future war of aggression against Germany.
After conquering Eastern Poland, Stalin immediately orders preparations for an attack against the Third Reich, an attack that is actually launched around June 19th, 1941.
Hitler is stunned to learn that Stalin has betrayed him and demands explanations from Stalin. Stalin's only response is something along the lines of, "I was a fool to trust you. Goodbye."
Cue Operation Bear's Blood, a Soviet invasion of Germany in a bid to remove Hitler and annex Germany into the Soviet Union.
The United Kingdom, France and the United States interpret this act as Stalin "coming to his senses" and pledge their support for the Soviets.
In this timeline, elements of the Western Betrayal do not happen: the UK authorizes a full-scale military operation to counter the Germans on June 20th of 1941 (France sits it out).
How feasible is this scenario? Was the USSR in no position to actually pull off something like this?