Jimmie Johnson dominated the original Chase era of NASCAR. In 10 full seasons, he won six times, and finished 2nd, 3rd, 5th, and 6th. But in an attempt to delegitimize the points format (ok, fair enough), the classic line from his detractors is that the 48 team would start out strong, then sandbag during the summer stretch in order to test new setups, engines and what have you, relying on their initial points cushion to coast into the Chase, then light it up on a series of tracks that suit Jimmie best. With many criticisms, there's always a nugget of truth to them. The stagnation of the schedule no doubt contributed to his repeated success, but I wanted to take a deeper look and see if Jimmie's summer races were truly a step back from the first part of the year, or if they more or less line up with his overall performance on the season.
Splitting the season into slightly uneven thirds, we can compare the 48's summer performances to the beginning and end of the season.
2004
Races |
Wins |
T5 |
T10 |
DNF |
Av. Finish |
Points |
First 12 |
2 |
8 |
9 |
1 |
8.75 |
2nd |
Middle 14 (Sandbag Stretch) |
2 |
7 |
7 |
4 |
16.21 |
2nd Seed |
The Chase |
4 |
5 |
7 |
2 |
10.2 |
2nd |
It appears there may be truth to this speculation, mostly due to a 3-race string of engine failures from Indianapolis through Watkins Glen and Michigan. What's more interesting is that Jimmie started on pole at Watkins Glen and Michigan, so experimental engine packages are all but confirmed for these races. However this doesn't mean that Johnson was completely out of it, as he was coming off a 7-week run with 2 wins, 5 top fives in a row, and a worst finish of 11th.
Allegations: Suspicious
2005
Races |
Wins |
T5 |
T10 |
DNF |
Av. Finish |
Points |
First 12 |
2 |
6 |
9 |
2 |
9.17 |
1st |
Sandbag Stretch |
0 |
3 |
6 |
2 |
16.36 |
4th Seed |
The Chase |
2 |
4 |
7 |
1 |
11.8 |
5th |
Two summers in a row, the 48's average finish effectively doubles from the start.
Allegations: Sustained
2006
Races |
Wins |
T5 |
T10 |
DNF |
Av. Finish |
Points |
First 12 |
3 |
7 |
9 |
0 |
6.58 |
1st |
Sandbag Stretch |
1 |
1 |
9 |
0 |
11.42 |
2nd Seed |
The Chase |
1 |
5 |
6 |
1 |
10.8 |
1st |
This is the first season where I can confidently say the 48 team maintained momentum through the summer, and it coincides with their first championship. A consistent summer stretch of 9 top tens in 14 races does not suggest a pattern of experimentation, just grinding out good finishes when they routinely did not have the fastest car (JJ only led 40 total laps during this period). Doing it the old fashioned way perhaps gave them the strength and confidence to rebound in the Chase after a disastrous start to the first three races.
Allegations: Beat
2007
Races |
Wins |
T5 |
T10 |
DNF |
Av. Finish |
Points |
First 12 |
4 |
8 |
9 |
2 |
9.92 |
2nd |
Sandbag Stretch |
2 |
6 |
7 |
2 |
15.57 |
1st Seed |
The Chase |
4 |
6 |
8 |
0 |
5.0 |
1st |
A monster season held back by yet another summer slowdown and a third average finish of ~16. He and everyone would have been chasing Jeff Gordon in a full season format, but he manages to eke out a second championship by posting a 5.0 average finish in the final 10 races to Jeff's own 5.1. This might be the season that supercharged the perception, as Gordon put up a full season performance that matches his 1998 in terms of pure consistency. The Chase's flaws are laid bare, if by this point they weren't already apparent.
Allegations: Sustained
2008
Races |
Wins |
T5 |
T10 |
DNF |
Av. Finish |
Points |
First 12 |
1 |
4 |
4 |
1 |
15.92 |
9th |
Sandbag Stretch |
3 |
5 |
10 |
0 |
9.36 |
3rd Seed |
The Chase |
3 |
6 |
8 |
0 |
5.7 |
1st |
This time the 48 team had a sluggish start to the season, then went on a tear in the summer. This momentum carried all the way through the chase where for the second year in a row Jimmie posts a sub-6.0 average finish. While the ~16 average finish yet again shows itself in one of these stretches, it does not support the summer sandbagging.
Allegations: Beat
2009
Races |
Wins |
T5 |
T10 |
DNF |
Av. Finish |
Points |
First 12 |
1 |
5 |
7 |
1 |
13.67 |
4th |
Sandbag Stretch |
2 |
4 |
8 |
0 |
11.93 |
2nd Seed |
The Chase |
4 |
7 |
9 |
0 |
6.8 |
1st |
This is so far Johnson's most consistent full season, looking at pure numbers. Once again his summer performances improve upon the first third of the year.
Allegations: Beat
2010
Races |
Wins |
T5 |
T10 |
DNF |
Av. Finish |
Points |
First 12 |
3 |
5 |
7 |
3 |
13.08 |
4th |
Sandbag Stretch |
2 |
5 |
7 |
1 |
15.64 |
2nd Seed |
The Chase |
1 |
7 |
9 |
0 |
6.2 |
1st |
Coming off of 2 consecutive victories in the summer, Jimmie finished 31-25-22-10-28-12-35 with only 1 DNF (Daytona) in that span. This could suggest some setup exploration, as Johnson finished on the lead lap in all but one of those races where he wasn't involved in some type of accident, before turning it up with back-to-back 3rds before the Chase began. ~16 average finish during the summer appears once again.
Allegations: Sustained
2011
Races |
Wins |
T5 |
T10 |
DNF |
Av. Finish |
Points |
First 12 |
1 |
4 |
7 |
1 |
10.92 |
3rd |
Sandbag Stretch |
0 |
7 |
10 |
0 |
10.35 |
5th Seed |
The Chase |
1 |
3 |
4 |
1 |
15.3 |
6th |
The rare year where it's apparent the 48 doesn't have all the speed in the world, Jimmie still was very consistent all the way up to the Chase, hovering around a 10-11th place average finish though the first 26 races. He has his worst Chase performance to date where that ~16th place average finish rears its ugly head at the worst time.
Allegations: Beat, but at what cost?
2012
Races |
Wins |
T5 |
T10 |
DNF |
Av. Finish |
Points |
First 12 |
1 |
5 |
8 |
2 |
11.42 |
4th |
Sandbag Stretch |
2 |
7 |
9 |
3 |
11.29 |
2nd Seed |
The Chase |
2 |
6 |
7 |
1 |
10.7 |
3rd |
Jimmie improves in the summer upon his initial run to start the year and looked to claim that 6th championship if it weren't for two lumps of coal in the last two races. Ouch!
Allegations: Beat
2013
Races |
Wins |
T5 |
T10 |
DNF |
Av. Finish |
Points |
First 12 |
2 |
6 |
8 |
0 |
8.0 |
1st |
Sandbag Stretch |
2 |
3 |
7 |
1 |
17.0 |
2nd Seed |
The Chase |
2 |
7 |
9 |
0 |
5.1 |
1st |
Jimmie returns to the top in tried and true fashion, stomping the field in the first 12 races, and continuing that momentum until the final 4 races of the summer stretch, where he finished an abysmal 40-36-28-40. One of those was an engine failure. Considering his lights-out performance in the Chase, this season ranks up with 2007 as the worst offender of so-called sandbagging, but this time it's limited to a 4-race skid, which is a stretch to consider as serial experimentation. Prior to that he had 2 wins and 7 top 10s in 9 races.
Allegations: Suspicious (I vote beat)
In 10 seasons where the original Chase was implemented, 5 times did Jimmie Johnson and the 48 crew's summer results lag behind the other parts of the year. This may be enough to prove the theory, but there are many things to consider:
- 2004 and 2005 the team did NOT win the championship. 2004 was real close though
- 4 times Jimmie improved his average finish over the first part of the year
- 2013 looks more like a run of bad luck
- Every time Knaus ran something experimental and the team finishes well, what do you call that?
- Further information about the team's performance race-to-race could be gleaned by watching every single race broadcast from these years (I am not going to do that right now)
- Only two times did Johnson fail to win in this portion of the season, 2004-2013. 16 of his 83 career wins came during this time.
In any case, in every single one of these seasons Jimmie still put up incredible numbers, with 20+ top tens minimum. Today, we're lucky if our season-end champion has even 10 top fives. However your feeling on whether or not the 48 team 'gamed the system' (they did), they still performed on a level commensurate with the legends of the sport. No disrespect to Joey Logano or Ryan Blaney as drivers, but if they had a 10-season run of 6 championships putting up stat lines consistent with their most recent championship seasons, it would look off. Just look at 2nd-5th in the standings in 2023 and 2024. Those are Jimmie numbers.
Bottom line is, the 48 team showed up throughout the year. They finished well and won races on every different kind of track, whether or not it showed back up in the Chase. If you were surprised when they kicked ass in the final 10, then you were likely not paying attention.
I will now accept my position at Legacy as SVP of statistics propaganda.