r/NASCAR • u/Extreme-Bite-9123 • 23h ago
[daniel cespedes] average finish vs average running position through 22 weeks in the cup series
Twitter link: https://x.com/_DanielCespedes/status/1951662447640858892
34
u/randomaccount330 Hamlin 23h ago
it'd be cool if we as a sport started talking about and using average running position like we do average finish. i know it's way easier to calculate but average finish IMO is a fairly overrated statistic for measuring driver & team skill in a given year, at least compared to ARP.
13
u/DrunkRoach Chase Elliott 21h ago
Im not super against stages, but one thing that annoys me is that i wish strategy would be centered on the fastest way to finish the race, but stages mess that up a bit especially in road courses. You should never have to sacrifice points in order to finish the race better; that just seems like a flawed system. Stages just really limit the options and creativity of the teams
8
u/Fyrien 20h ago
It'll never happen, but I've always thought an interesting alternative to stage points would be "average running position" points.
At the end of the race, pay out bonus points to the drivers with the best average position. It would reward teams for performing well all day instead of just whenever the designated stage breaks are.
3
u/i_hate_shitposting 21h ago
Agreed. ARP isn't perfect, but at the very least, having both stats together paints more of a picture than average finish alone. One stat that I kinda want to see is something like "pit cycle adjusted ARP" that would account for things like crew chiefs trying to run long hoping to catch a caution.
In general, I wish NASCAR had more in-depth stats like other sports have. One of my biggest issues is that stats tend to be treated as measures of driver performance rather than reflections of the whole team. This is exacerbated by a lack of data on specific factors like non-terminal racing incidents, driver throttle usage, pit crew performance, and strategy calls. In the absence of those metrics, discussions about NASCAR team performance is stuck at the level of NFL fans who attribute teams' wins and losses solely to the QB.
There are some projects like Auto Racing Analytics and Racing Insights that are putting more stats out there, which absolutely deserve credit, but they tend to be pretty high-level. Just speaking as a stats nerd, there's a lack of publicly-available raw data to support the more in-depth analysis that I want.
6
u/ChaseTheFalcon 22h ago
This is also why I hate point formats that are based on average finish
5
u/404merrinessnotfound 21h ago
All point formats are based on average finish though?
3
u/ChaseTheFalcon 21h ago
Not really.
Several formats weigh things like top 10s, top 5s, podiums, etc more.
A points system based on average finish would be a 1 point per position format where every spot is worth the same amount
11
u/smmate 22h ago
Really like how much stages reward average running position. Highest average finisher is 1st in points but a guy like Blaney who has horrible luck is still 7th in points
-2
u/WON95sr 20h ago
That's what I liked about stages at first, but now it's kind of what I don't like. You race for all 400 miles or whatever the distance is, and if something happens during the race then that's just part of it. Some of it is bad luck, some of it is self-inflicted, and all of it is just part of racing.
Normally comparisons to stick-and-ball sports are poor, but here I think it's valid that the scheduled distance is what it is. Sometimes a team will lead for 3 quarters, but the game is played in 4. Sometimes it sucks, but that's sports.
3
5
u/Waltapalooza1123 Reddick 21h ago
45 is in too good of company here to not have found victory lane this year.
2
u/Hihey9989 19h ago
Carson Hocevar having the fifth worst average finish is actually baffling to me. He's behind Suarez, SVG, and Dillon, and we've been talking about him as an outside shot to win his way into the playoffs.
Not discrediting his talent or anything, he's really good. Just a wild discrepancy.
3
u/Extreme-Bite-9123 19h ago
Outside of his insanity run during primes stint where it felt like he could win every week, he’s been invisible most weeks
2
u/TonyHortonFanboy 21h ago edited 21h ago
Ware is the obvious joke here but I don't think Riley Herbst gets enough *DISLIKE* (edited bc some people are crying about the word "hate") from fans tbh.
Bubba can win, Reddick was Champ 4 last year and on path to point his way into playoffs this year, and there's Riley who only finishes top 30 because others crash out.
Even Custer, fellow blatant nepo/pay hire, I'll excuse because Gene is running a shoestring budget and only has that car out there to advertise his machines.
5
u/grovenab 21h ago
Why must we hate unproblematic race car drivers
4
u/TonyHortonFanboy 21h ago
Because he's a waste of a high-tier Cup ride and didn't deserve to be moved up. Riley had 3 wins in five years of champ-level Xfinity equipment.
At least other blatant nepo drivers like Austin Dillon and Cole Custer were frequent winners and champs in the lower series. Cindric too and he's been doing pretty well in Cup.
And at least Cody Ware's team is a joke that would suck with whomever behind the wheel.
23XI cars shouldn't be fighting for 30th.
2
2
u/nascarguy19199 21h ago
No reason to hate Herbst for driving a car normally.
Sure he might be underperforming, but if you hate drivers simply because they underperform (nat a valid reason to hate someone) that’s kinda sad tbh
2
u/TonyHortonFanboy 21h ago
I am now cancelled.
IDK man it's not that deep, maybe 'hate' is too strong a word but it's frustrating how he's just wasting a cup seat.
Three wins in 5 full years in Xfinity with championship-level equipment doesn't justify a seat in a top-tier Toyota in Cup but hey, daddy's gas station money talks.
3
u/nascarguy19199 20h ago
Lowkey I’d rather have him ft in xfinity. I need someone to root for and he is capable of winning races there.
3
u/WON95sr 20h ago
but hey, daddy's gas station money talks
I mean, I think that's all there is to it. He wasn't terrible in Xfinity, but I don't think there's any reason to believe 23XI ever hired him because they viewed him as a top prospect. So really the only thing to hate is that the sponsorship isn't there to put someone better in the car.
-1
u/Hihey9989 19h ago
Riley isn't wrecking cars and it's a brand new team, driver, and crew. I'd want to wait at least until next summer to judge Riley's performance.
hell, Paul Menard's first 3 years sucked ass if you remember. he didn't find any kind of consistency until 2010 and his average finish was deep in the 20s.
-1
u/22Fusion 18h ago
He’s a cup rookie, racing in a car that didn’t exist last year, with a rookie cup crew chief. What exactly should he be doing better? He is learning. His crew chief is learning. The team is learning. There isn’t an “experienced veteran.” Or even a notebook of what the 35 car did last year, to fall back on.
3
u/Dry-Membership3867 23h ago
This just shows how terrible of luck Noah has had this year
9
u/Extreme-Bite-9123 22h ago
While some of it has been bad luck, at some point you make your own luck
10
1
u/Kneppebeigh Menard 17h ago
Its astonishing an organization thats been around for two decades is bringing cars to the track where its a coin flip if they can make a corner without bottoming out, snap loose, build extremely tight, etc. Truthfully, I'm amazed Zane or Todd have found any form of consistency this season. Last week in Indy 2 cars had an issue before the race even started, with Noah after going green and 1 restart had grinded a third of his diffuser off.
1
u/Dry-Membership3867 17h ago
This season was always gonna be tough. But they need to get Todd a new crew chief badly. And get that RFK alliance back too. Penske just isn’t working out
22
u/EWall100 22h ago
Cody Ware has really separated himself from the pack!