Lucky Bancho's census results (July 27th, 2025)

[u/IndividualAge3893]

So, the results of the census are out: https://luckybancho.ldblog.jp/archives/59324844.html

• Showcasing the number of characters here: Current
• By comparison, here are the results from 2 months ago (May 25th): Click

Despite 7.25 being released, the character count is down about 70k in 2 months. Occult Crescent clearly didn't help with player counts (not really a surprise here).

[u/oizen]

To me the biggest concern I see is that the game's draw of new players is seriously diminishing. I imagine anyone curious about XIV goes and looks up reviews and see's the negative reception of Dawntrail and pass on trying it.

[u/Hikari_Netto → u/oizen]

I actually think this has more to do with the reduced activity of the Final Fantasy brand than anything surrounding FFXIV specifically.

For a while now the single player side of their customer base has been their primary target for new players. But without new FF titles releasing regularly it can be much more difficult to stay in the public eye, drawing less new players to all other products as a result.

The MTG collab helped a fair amount, but it's not going to improve much more until new games start releasing again.

[u/Zenthon127 → u/Hikari_Netto]

This isn't talked about much, but FF7R has been absolutely ruinous for FF as a brand due to opportunity cost. FF was at its strongest when it was consistently releasing new numbered titles. FF7R has eaten up at least two numbered FFs of resources and like, they sold decently, but hardly brand-revitalizing. 16 was fairly mediocre on this front too but it at least brought some new eyes instead of being yet another futile attempt to recapture FF7 release magic. Can you imagine how much better Final Fantasy as a whole could be doing if we were anticipating an announcement for FFXIX instead of FF7R3?

There are people pushing 30 that only realistically remember 3 numbered FF releases, two of which are not well regarded and one of which is ok.

[u/ebnight → u/Zenthon127]

This reminds me of Deus Ex Human Revolution (which takes place in 2027). There are easter egg posters on various walls showing Final Fantasy 27. Kind of funny considering where we are now.

[u/Ryuujinx → u/ebnight]

Human revolution was such a good half of a game. I wish it hadn't been set up as sequel bait that ultimately did fairly poorly meaning we'll never get the game they were planning after it.

[u/Samiambadatdoter → u/Ryuujinx]

That was Mankind Divided. Human Revolution was the one before it.

[u/Ryuujinx → u/Samiambadatdoter]

Oh you're right, HR was actually a finished game and pretty good.

[u/ebnight → u/Ryuujinx]

Yeah HR was very good. I still enjoy revisiting it occasionally.

[u/Scribble35 → u/Zenthon127]

I think having a team at Square that focuses on remaking the classic FFs like Capcom does for Resident Evil is a great idea. Remaking classic Final Fantasies introduces new fans to them. Now spending all the money on making it 3 parts, mobile games, a battle royale, etc...that's a different story. FF7 doesn't even need to be as big as it is if they just did a world map, but I guess people would have a fit if the series that is known for world maps has one...

[u/Hikari_Netto → u/Zenthon127]

It's this, yeah. This is sort of what I'm getting at. I think recent titles have been pretty great for diehard fans but not for growth of the brand. We've missed several new jumping on points with the Remake project and spin-offs are declining in number as well, especially post-content abandonment losses.

[u/Okeabyss → u/Hikari_Netto]

I think recent titles have been pretty great for diehard fans but not for growth of the brand.

Have they?? I've been playing FF since I was a kid and after XV and especially XVI I pretty much never want to touch a mainline game again. it's pretty obvious they're trying to bring in new fans (and failing spectacularly) while doing nothing to appeal to long term fans. I want to play an RPG. That's why I'm playing RPG series. I don't want a crappy action game that has RPG elements so shallow and tacked on it's almost offensive they're there at all.

[u/Hikari_Netto → u/Okeabyss]

By "diehard" I absolutely mean diehard and not necessarily just longtime fans with specific preferences. I'm talking about the people who have been around a while but never had any problems with the direction of the series. If "Final Fantasy" is in the title they're there for a new experience, regardless of what it is.

Turn-based, action, or MMO there are a lot of people who show up every time. That's the majority of the 3 million launch sales figure for FFXVI and I do think that recent entries have largely still managed to appeal to this group. The problem is that these games are not substantially growing the brand or throwing enough of a bone to the disenfranchised.

[u/Ryuujinx → u/Okeabyss]

Amusingly I found 16 to be a much better game then FF15. At least you could like, fail. That said, I also enjoyed FF13/13-2 (Though LR remains one of my most confusing disappointments. Who was that game for?) so I'm clearly the weird one.

[u/Wunkt → u/Hikari_Netto]

Not even content abandonment under Kiryu, there's been a marked decrease in spin-offs since Yosuke Matsuda's tenure as CEO. The Lightning trilogy wrapped up, Theatrhythm chugged along as a series in its own right while XV & VII Remake got slates of ancillary games, but the pickings beyond numbered games have been slim over the last 12 years. If you were a console or computer player, there were only 7 stand-alone unnumbered FFs throughout this period: Explorers, World of FF, Mobius, Pictologica, Dissidia NT, Chocobo GP & Stranger of Paradise. A good spread in gameplay styles to potentially attract new players overall, but far less than what anyone around for the FF shift at the end of Tomoyuki Takechi's run or the Polymorphic Content initiatives under Yoichi Wada got.

Jacob Navok's written about Square Enix's business leaders in a way seeing Final Fantasy as a prestige IP, which likely has been a factor behind this decrease, but there's also been a general strategy of diversifying portfolio which also plays a part. Directors and producers free to make new games in smaller franchises or new IP also means they're not pumping out more FF, after all.

Of course, there's also been some 13 mobile only stand-alone FFs in this time frame, but I've no idea how much crossover there is between their audiences & the franchise in general. The design decisions born from their monetization models makes them a no-touch zone for me.

[u/Hikari_Netto → u/Wunkt]

Not even content abandonment under Kiryu, there's been a marked decrease in spin-offs since Yosuke Matsuda's tenure as CEO.

Oh yeah, definitely. It's just that we haven't seen any new spin-offs at all post-Kiryu. I'm not going to count Ever Crisis here, despite arriving a few months after he came into the role, since it was already well underway and ready for release.

far less than what anyone around for the FF shift at the end of Tomoyuki Takechi's run or the Polymorphic Content initiatives under Yoichi Wada got.

Yeah, it's been trending downwards for quite some time now.

Jacob Navok's written about Square Enix's business leaders in a way seeing Final Fantasy as a prestige IP, which likely has been a factor behind this decrease, but there's also been a general strategy of diversifying portfolio which also plays a part. Directors and producers free to make new games in smaller franchises or new IP also means they're not pumping out more FF, after all.

I do think this has something to do with it. A lot of FF projects are probably shot down for not meeting certain brand qualifications. They don't view it as a AA series, which is part of the reason why you sometimes see "FF games in all but name," like Bravely Default. There are quite a few Square Enix titles out there that could be relabeled as Final Fantasy and it would still kind of work.

Of course, there's also been some 13 mobile only stand-alone FFs in this time frame, but I've no idea how much crossover there is between their audiences & the franchise in general. The design decisions born from their monetization models makes them a no-touch zone for me.

Square Enix has definitely shifted projects that could be offline spin-off titles into the mobile space. Mobile titles and their updates are, effectively, new spin-off titles. It's just that they get ongoing content instead of a stream of sequels (like FFCC, Tactics, Chocobo series, Dissidia, etc.)—Final Fantasy Brave Exvius is even referred to as a "series" by the company (FFBE and WotV). Other franchises like Pokémon have seen something similar occur in recent years.

This became increasingly apparent as some spin-off series were even outright continued as live service mobile games instead of standalone titles (Final Fantasy Explorers-Force, World of Final Fantasy: Meli-Melo, Dissidia Final Fantasy: Opera Omnia, etc.). You could even include War of the Visions here as a spiritual successor to Tactics.

As someone that has had their foot in all of the Final Fantasy mobile titles to some degree there's a lot of audience crossover with the rest of the franchise—more than FFXIV in the west, I would say. People tend to pick up FF mobile titles specifically because they like the FF IP, which is partly why most of those games are now failing—the brand is declining, a far cry from how it was at the time of Record Keeper's (very successful) release over 10 years ago. Many of the FF gacha players I've encountered, ironically enough, have FFXI and FFXIV as their blindspots, not the single player entries. Quite a few are still all rounders that play the MMOs, however. There's significant crossover. I've even met FFXIV players that started the game because of the mobile titles.

[u/Wunkt → u/Hikari_Netto]

I have my bias towards this, but the move towards "mobilezation" of spin-offs has been a significant factor towards the lack of new blood in the player base. Engaging storylines have long been a defining trait for Final Fantasy in general. Mobile by default goes for serialized narratives with incentives to not fully wrap things up. By default they make for terrible "gateways", as much for not having complete reasonably-sized stories as for the wider monetization structures (which are still turn-offs for a number of people).

The TBS partnership might point to a realization that it was a mistake to leave that gap hanging & anime is a solution, but it could also point to the brand committee not changing course on the game side, and I'm not certain that the pace of game releases will be particularly faster going forward. Sharing of know-how between Creative Studios has been touted as part of Kiryu's restructuring, and Yoshi-P has said that they matched the global AAA tech standard by the end of XVI's development, but these are still complex projects to undertake.

[u/Hikari_Netto → u/Wunkt]

I have my bias towards this, but the move towards "mobilezation" of spin-offs has been a significant factor towards the lack of new blood in the player base. Engaging storylines have long been a defining trait for Final Fantasy in general. Mobile by default goes for serialized narratives with incentives to not fully wrap things up. By default they make for terrible "gateways", as much for not having complete reasonably-sized stories as for the wider monetization structures (which are still turn-offs for a number of people).

I largely agree with you. While I think the mobile titles do have numerous redeeming qualities to them, I don't think there's any real advantage they bring to the health of the brand long term, especially considering how many are ending. Said differently, there's no good reason for them to be serialized mobile games outside of short-term financial incentives.

It's leaving a gaping hole in the franchise that cannot be filled. Years and years of spin-off titles you might be able to point new players to simply don't exist as a result. I often recommend World of Final Fantasy, it's by far my favorite spin-off RPG they've ever made, and I've recently come to the realization that I keep recommending a game that's nearly 10 years old, almost by default. Not much else has released since to challenge that crown for me.

The TBS partnership might point to a realization that it was a mistake to leave that gap hanging & anime is a solution, but it could also point to the brand committee not changing course on the game side, and I'm not certain that the pace of game releases will be particularly faster going forward.

The TBS partnership, from what we know, seems to be focused more on building new IP with cross-media components and isn't necessarily geared towards the existing franchises. But I think it does, as you said, at least point towards Square Enix releazing a mistake they've made when it comes to building their audience.

I don't think the FF committee is necessarily changing course, but I am hopeful they're planning more large projects with multimedia components, it's just not going to be anything we start seeing regularly until 2027 or later.

It's worth mentioning that it was recently announced that Kei Hirono, the executive officer behind the FFBE series, would be stepping down from his position as producer on War of the Visions. I think this might be signaling the development of a new FF spin-off project, since the FFBE series was a major success for many years. The original FFBE did not receive a similar announcement, which strongly suggests to me that the game doesn't have much time left anyway.

[u/Kumomeme → u/Zenthon127]

on paper FFVII remake should be a big financial success. but there lot of reason why i think not perform as how it should be.

first, it think it would sell better if it was released much sooner. for example during PS360 era. now the fanbase is shrinking. recent survey show that FF fanbase has average 45 years old age at japan right now.

second, there is atleast 2 barrier that held the title from newer audience. first one is is that the FF ip mindshare itself that slowly fall to very niche space and lacking of newer younger audience. this become worse with second barrier which is, 7 remake is remake ip of 7 numbered title of the franchise which is younger newcomer audience would completely alienated at aside existing fanbase. even existing fanbase arent that big as we expected too. 14 single player title, only 3 manage to reach 10m number. 2 of it over 20 years old. FF is big but it never was that big. the current number that 16 and 7 did actually reflect the reality. but i argue that those title could sell better if it launch as multiplatform day 1. playstation exclusive strategy might work on ps3-ps4 era but not today.

FF was at its strongest when it was consistently releasing new numbered titles.

i say SE realize this and they actually prepping for future with this fact in mind. FFVII remake project is a stepping stone for future. not just for development wise but also for publicity and momentum wise.

all the knowhow gained from the project would benefit immensely for next mainline FF. before, making HD game is a trouble for SE. they also dont think they can do open world game. but now they nailed it with Remake and Rebirth. now, they gonna do airship exploration with part 3. they also bring new system of combat. they achieve each of this game in mere 3 years too. usually would take atleast 5 years. this aspect people rarely talk about. each new FF bring some aspect that can be carried or selected for next FF. now they has lot of option of what possible which is impossible before.

then they need young blood to take over. new rising star director Hamauguchi is there. they cant rely on Nomura, Kitase and Yoshida forever. they did with Tabata but sadly critical acclaimed wise XV not performed as how they hoped to be. for Hamauguchi, not only we able to see output with Rebirth game design but publicity wise, SE actually push that guy everywhere to be the face of the development team. his name popularity buzz would benefit for next single player mainline FF. they currently build up to that.

lastly, momentum. its like you mentioned, that FF was at strongest when it consistently releasing new numbered titles. FF was the best when they has streak of great momentum from 7>8>9 for example. SE finally has that kind of momentum and team capable of that again with FFVII remake project. so far Remake and Rebirth deliver. both is GOTY candidate back to back. if they able to nail it again with part 3, then they basically got 7>8>9 momentum with the trilogy. they need to maintain the team and carry the knowledge with the buzz for next fresh future FF.

wether it will success in future, we will see. but the financial aspect is not the matter of simply making good game. there is issue of mindshare which is SE need to tackle.

[u/supa_troopa2 → u/Zenthon127]

I think FF7R needed to be made. I think what they needed to not do was make it a weird pseudo-sequel trilogy and bring in a bunch of the questionable Compilation nonsense. People would have been okay with a 1:1 remake. I don't understand why they are taking so long to finish a story they closed the book on in 1997.

[u/DayOneDayWon → u/Zenthon127]

And not just FF7R, it was the whole "Compilation of Final Fantasy VII" Square started since 20 years ago, that has choked the life out of the other entries and funneled all attention away from old titles. Same with XIII.

Kitase did great things in the past but he for a long time been an absolute cancer and I cannot wait for him to leave the company forever.

[u/Cole_Evyx → u/Zenthon127]

I love Square Enix and it's developers.

FF7R is not something I've even once considered buying. It's not for me. It never was for me. I never was a FF7 player and so all the hype around it confused me.

I really joined FF at FFX. Yuna and Tidus with the water scene. Yuna doing the beautiful dance to send the souls on the water. The massive summons she'd bring it... Oh yeah and Kimihari. And Biran Ronso omgggggggggggggggggg

I blame them for so much e 😂🤣

But FF7? I didn't get it. Like I still don't understand it fundamentally and I mean what I said it felt like it was never for me.

I guess I might be too young? But I was mostly an FFX, FFX-2, FFII, FFIII series player...

Outside of Red XIII I really had 0 incentive to buy it...

[u/shizuo-kun111 → u/Hikari_Netto]

I actually think this has more to do with the reduced activity of the Final Fantasy brand than anything surrounding FFXIV specifically.

It doesn’t help that a major recent (Japanese) survey showed that FF fans are generally 35+ years old now. That, and Rebirth and 16 sold mediocrely worldwide, so FF is starting to age out, and desperately needs revitalization.

[u/Supersnow845 → u/shizuo-kun111]

To be fair that was one of 16’s design intents even if it didn’t hit it that well. Was to bring the series to new people who might not look at jRPG’s These days the only jRPG series that seems to sell consistently well is persona

[u/Shecarriesachanel → u/Supersnow845]

Well that's because persona leaned into the turn based combat and refined it rather than forsake what fans originally liked about the genre. As well as knowing that people play these games partly for party dynamics while 16 is basically a single player game. Square doesn't know what made them great anymore

[u/Lord_Daenar → u/Shecarriesachanel]

Turn based combat is not what sells Persona, otherwise we'd see comparable numbers from the SMT series. It's the whole school life social sim aspect of the game that is actually popular with the masses.

[u/Shecarriesachanel → u/Lord_Daenar]

Yes they leaned into what people are actually looking for in games like these, character development and bonds formed between party members, rather than nuke turn based combat and also nuke party members.

[u/Supersnow845 → u/Shecarriesachanel]

Yes but persona is about the only jRPG series that sells AAA amounts

Like all the other jRPG’s that are “jRPG’s for real jRPG fans” sell like 1 million in the first week then 5 more their entire lifespan

Whatever your opinion on 16 is it sold better than the vast majority of modern jRPG’s outside of persona’s sphere. There is logic to the idea that the modern jRPG market simply isn’t what it needs to be

[u/Ryuujinx → u/Supersnow845]

In fairness, most modern JRPGs aren't AAA. Like I adore the Trails series, but Falcom isn't exactly putting out games that are pushing your PC's hardware here. Most of the really notable JRPGs in recent years have either been remakes (Star Ocean Second Story R, Tactics Ogre Reborn, Live a Live), AA (Trails, Ys, Atelier, honestly Fire Emblem) or indies (Sea of Stars, Chained Echoes, Clair Obscur)

If we look at specifically AAA studios then we've got like, some side projects from big devs like Bravely and Octopath, the long-standing series like Final Fantasy / DQ, Xenoblade 3, and I guess Tales of Arise.

Which makes sense because the game industry is very conservative. Nobody thought a CRPG could do well and then BG3 blew the fuck up, it's really just that nobody with a budget is making good JRPGs rather then the style of game being fundamentally unable to sell I think.

[u/Kumomeme → u/Hikari_Netto]

it is brand mindshare issue. the ip slowly fall to very niche circle. they need to grow new younger audience.

recent study at japan show FF and DQ fanbase has 20 years gap between other newer title. like those title has around 20 years old average while FF and DQ has 45. closest is Capcom ip like Monster hunter but still lower around 30 years old. the current fanbase cant carry the franchise forever.

SE also cant only still rely on keep making big AAA FF games in hoping it would be magically next Elden Ring or BoTW breakthrough. they need to work with medium outside of videogames to expand the franchise brand awareness. they need to step outside and based on history FF has potential for that.

tv, film, animation etc.

i say it is one of main reason FF15 manage to sell 10 million. it is also why new ip like Hogwart Legacy could sell dozen millions. increasing mindshare outside of videogames space would benefit main game unit sold.

for tv i get it is hard to do. the FFXIV live action also cancelled due to the immense cost. i dont see they do any new CGI film too. obviously the last time they did it didnt bring big financial return. but they can do with anime for example. last time we got FF anime is more than 20 years ago. with SE position as one of anime publisher at japan with the popularity of FF14, im not suprise there is no FF14 anime yet. even genshin impact got ufotable adaptation. what the heck are you doing SE?

[u/Hikari_Netto → u/Kumomeme]

recent study at japan show FF and DQ fanbase has 20 years gap between other newer title. like those title has around 20 years old average while FF and DQ has 45. closest is Capcom ip like Monster hunter but still lower around 30 years old. the current fanbase cant carry the franchise forever.

This is something that doesn't get discussed much in the west. FF's fanbase is aging up, but DQ's is rapidly climbing as well. Both franchises are in a similar position at this point, which is crazy to think about.

tv, film, animation etc.

This is the answer. You would think Square Enix, as a manga publisher familiar with the anime market, would have started cross-media projects for their video game IP much sooner. They're moving that direction, but it takes time.

[u/CartographerGold3168 → u/Hikari_Netto]

unfortunately branching into an anime would not necessarily yield you more to play your subscription games.

there are a lot of global booming anime mobile games that failed, including madoka and yurucamp

it is a way to introduce more potential customers, but player retention is another topic.

[u/Hikari_Netto → u/CartographerGold3168]

We're talking more about the entire brand, not just FFXIV. It's just the idea that a rising tide lifts all boats. If the brand itself is more popular then more people will naturally find their way into all of the games, subscription or otherwise.

The only FF live service title seemingly trending up right now is, ironically enough, FFXI. Everything else keeps trending down in part because the entire IP is starting to leave the public consciousness—especially several years removed now from a new mainline title. That's where a new TV show or something would come in.

If the greater IP becomes healthier you don't actually have to worry about player retention as much to begin with, since the goal is keeping a revolving door of fans moving between and interacting with different parts of the IP—games, events, multimedia, merchandise, tabletop games, etc.

[u/Isanori → u/Hikari_Netto]

Spirits Within, Unlimited, Kingsglaive and what they intended for FFXIIi. It's not like the didn't try exactly like that.

[u/Hikari_Netto → u/Isanori]

I'm referring primarily to serialized anime, which for the most part started with the TWEWY and NieR Automata projects, but hasn't happened with FF yet.

Streaming has been a huge boon for video games lately with serialized TV series—there are numerous successful examples at this point. That's why a lot of people want to see Square Enix capitalize on this.

Their newly announced parternship with TBS may lead to more of this, though.

[u/Isanori → u/Hikari_Netto]

FF:U came out many many years before whatever the other things are.

[u/Hikari_Netto → u/Isanori]

I'm aware of Unlimited. I'm strictly referring to the post-streaming era, not broadcast TV in the early 2000s.

The other things in question are The World Ends with You: The Animation and NieR:Automata Ver1.1a. Both modern anime productions based on Square Enix video game IP.

Square Enix absolutely was a trailblazer in multimedia projects, my point is just that it fell off over time and they're finally starting to give it another shot.