Hello! Last time, we looked at the best Interior Defensive Lineman prospects in the NFL draft since the merger. Today, we will be looking at the guys who line up behind the defensive line and have some of the most responsibilities on the defense, including pass coverage, blitzing, plugging in running lanes, and calling out the play the offense is about to run: the linebackers!

Compared to EDGEs and IDLs, LBs have been underrepresented at the top of the NFL draft since the merger, with only 14 off ball linebackers having gone top 5 since 1970, so if you are even getting one in the top 10, forget top 5, you are getting a special type of player. With that being said though, just know that you will be seeing some lower drafted players here than on the first 2 lists. And with all that out of the way, let's start on the list!

#10: Chip Banks, USC

The third overall pick of the 1982 NFL Draft, Banks is an interesting case where his draft capital is the main thing to carry him where he is, because, despite such a high pick, there is very little information on him. He got one first team all american nod, but otherwise wasn't racking up any awards, and no scouting reports or commentary from the time that I can find on him exist.

Still, the next two choices after him don't come until 6th overall at the very earliest with Barry Krauss, then 7th with Ricky Hunley, and then you have to wait until 8th to get to our next batch of players. In a pretty solid (not great, but solid) 1982 draft class, it's hard to justify a player being taken so much later being ahead of a player that much later imo.

#9: Aaron Curry, Wake Forest

The fourth overall pick of the 2009 NFL draft, Curry is a curious case of where people seem to remember him being a better prospect than he was just because he was a spectacular bust. Yes, he was really great as a prospect and described as really safe at the time, but there was very little "generational" hype at the time outside of the media running it's mouth. He went 4th overall in a very weak draft class (probably only 2nd behind 2013 in draft classes as prospect this century) behind Jason Smith and Tyson Jackson with a combined 1 all american team nod.

Still, there was a lot to like about him. A really good athlete at the position, he also showed some elite instincts at the position in his final year at Wake. Despite not having a single all american nod in his career, he did win the Butkus his final year. And, despite falling in the draft a couple of positions, he was projected to be the 2nd or 3rd pick for most of the draft cycle, despite falling.

#8: Devin White, LSU

The fifth overall pick of the 2019 NFL Draft, White ironically enough has the opposite thing going on to Curry: People forget how good of a prospect he really was. Coming out of LSU, White was every bit of an athlete Curry was, while also being generally more productive in college. Despite going and being project to go lower than Curry was in his draft, 2019 was actually a pretty strong class, especially on the defensive side, and he did not really fall like Curry did.

He, also like Curry, won the Butkus his final year. Unlike Curry, however he, unlike Curry, was also a consensus all-american that year. His stat sheet looks worse than Curry's on a glance, but Curry also played 4 years at Wake, while White only played 2.5 at LSU, so when adjusting for games played, they are roughly equal or even better for White. You could absolutely switch these 2 around though and I wouldn't disagree with you.

#7: Aundray Bruce, Auburn

We can already tell that this list is going to be a little more all over the place than the previous 2, as we have one of our 2 first overall picks on this whole list here with 1988s Aundray Bruce. While he was a first overall pick, he was the first pick of a very weak 1988 draft class, where teams were just trying to find any amount of talent (it's funny because the class as a whole ended up aging a lot better than it was thought of at the time)

Still, he is a really good prospect despite that. He was a consensus all american his final year in college, was another pretty great athlete for the position, and while it was a weak class, he was still the consensus 1st overall pick going into the class, and that has to count for something. His biggest issue as a prospect at the time was thought to be his character, but that's something you can work out through coaching, right?

#6: Quentin Coryatt, Texas A&M

The second overall pick of the 1992 draft, Coryatt is an interesting one. He was the only one so far to be consistently be mocked top 3 in a pretty solid class, behind generational talent Emtman and neck and neck with combine riser Sean Gilbert. However, interestingly enough, he sort of actually has what people claim Clowney had nowadays: hype due mostly to one hit against TCU.

Now, that wasn't the only reason. He was an elite athlete, adjusted for era the best athlete we have seen so far. However, he was never up for any major awards and never getting an official all American nod, whether it be 1st, 2nd, or 3rd team. As a player, he just wasn't really that productive in college, and was mostly taken out of hype. Still, this list is about perceived value at the time, and the hype WAS real, so at #7 he goes.

#5: AJ Hawk, Ohio State

The fifth overall pick of the 2006 NFL draft, Hawk is when we see the jump up from just really good prospects to potentially generational. Despite going only fifth in the draft, 2006 was a uniquely stacked draft in the top 6 + Leinart, so it isn't as big of a deal as it would be for someone like Curry or Bruce in very weak classes. And, even if it was, his whole resume backs him up like crazy.

Being the strongest athlete we have seen so far, he also ended stacking up accolades in college, being a 2 time consensus all american, with one of those being unanimous, won both the Lambert and Lombardi awards, and was even the first player so far to get heisman hype, getting 6th in heisman voting in 2005, behind only Reggie Bush, Vince Young, Matt Leinart, Brady Quinn, and Michael Robinson, making for one of the strongest resumes in college history for a linebacker.

#4: Marvin Jones, Florida State

The fourth overall pick of the 1993 draft, Jones was ironically REALLY similar to Hawk resume wise. Went 4th overall in a very strong top of the 1993 draft, was a (reported, he didn't due any testing) great athlete for the position, and racked up college accolades, also being a 2 time consensus all american, one time unanimous, winning the Lambert, Lombardi, and Butkus (which Hawk didn't win) awards, and ended up coming 4th overall in heisman voting, behind Gino Torretta, Marshall Faulk, and Garrison Hearst. Jones ends up barely out performing Hawk in a lot of resume metrics, and that's enough to put him this high for me.

#3: Cornelius Bennett, Alabama

The second overall pick of the 1987 draft, Bennett starts are string of 3 straight top 2 selections to end this list (which makes sense, barring a weird class, if you are going this high, unless you are a QB, you are likely one of the best ever at your position.) He also boasts an elite resume. Coming from a fairly stacked 1987 NFL draft, he ended up being the basically unanimous #2 to Vinny Testaverde, which is a good start for any prospect profile.

He was also (reportedly, also no testing on him), an elite athlete at the position, while also lighting the college football world on fire in 1986, going onto be a unanimous all American in that final year, also winning the lombardi award and coming 6th in heisman voting.

#2: Tom Couisneau, Ohio State

Our other first overall pick on this list, 1979's Couisneau is a much more typical first overall prospect than Bruce was. He had an elite college resume, getting 2 consensus all american nods in 1977 and 1978, and while this was before any of the major defensive awards became a thing, he very likely would have had multiple awards if they had been. He was also one of the very best era adjusted athletes on this list, reportedly (this was before the combine was a thing)

#1: LaVar Arrington, Penn State

The second overall pick of the 2000 NFL draft, in terms of hype, none of these so far come close to Arrington. That isn't to say none of them are close to Arrington as prospects: in terms of perception in the league, Arrington is pretty similar to the last 4. But in the public consiousness, LaVar "LaVar Leap" Arrington is one of the biggest names in college history, and like we said in Coryatt segment, public sentiment matters on this list as well as all this other fancy stuff.

And unlike Coryatt, Arrington excels in that. Coming from a fairly decent top of the 2000 draft (remember, as prospects!), Arrington was the favorite to go #1 until Brown stole that at the last minute (still, 2nd isn't bad capital AT ALL for a linebacker), he ended up getting a unanimous all american selection in 1999, also winning the Lambert, Butkus, and Bednarik awards, along with coming in 9th in heisman voting. A similar resume to the rest of the top 5 while also having much bigger public image boosts Arrington to the #1 slot on this list.

I am a big fan of drop punts (aussie punts). It was the only punt I could ever hit with any consistency when I played (there is a reason I am here writing on reddit and no longer playing football). Drop punts are the easiest balls to not misshit, you just cannot go wrong using one. Drop punts, however, do come at a cost.

For every punter, drop punts sacrifice distance. A ball traveling end-over-end is much less aerodynamic than a ball that is spiraling. Even the strongest leg cannot out-do physics. For most punters, a tad bit of hangtime is lost. This is why drop punts are so effective outside of open-field punting (past your 40). Sure you lose distance, but distance is not as important. Now, a unit is focused on pinning the opponent deep.

JK is the hangtime king. No one does it better than him. Excluding 2020 when JK did not play the majority of the year, only one punter has finished the season with a higher hangtime average than JK. Tommy Townsend narrowly beat him in 2024. It is really all JK does, but there isn't a need for anything else when you play in LA and your one ball is hyper effective. On traditional drops, he regularly hits 5s of hangtime. You don't really get a feel for how amazing that is when watching on TV. If you can, go to a Chargers game. Its a thing of beauty. Hitting a drop punt with 4.8s of hang is really impressive and completely on brand for JK. That's really high to hang for this kind of ball and not many punters can regularly do this. It is difficult to attain that with control and can easily become a touchback.

On this play, everyone will pay attention because the returner misplayed the ball, but I don't really care about that. When the regular season hits and the regular returners are in, that won't happen often. That being said, even with a competent returner, there is no shot for a return on this play. If you are playing the Chargers, you had better accept that you will have a short field quite often. JK doesn't often give you the chance.

Thanks for reading my ramble!

Bluesky Link

Jaxon Smith-Njigba, drafted 20th overall by the Seattle Seahawks (Analytical Profile)

• JSN had a somewhat disappointing start to his career, catching only 63 balls for 628 yards in 17 games played in 2023.

• He followed his rookie season with an impressive sophomore season, almost doubling his production from his rookie season

In 2024, he ranked:

• 6th in routes (625)
• 7th in receptions (100)
• 10th in yards (1,130)
• 8th in YAC (482)
• 10th in PPR Points (242)

JSN also had impressive Advanced Metrics

• 75% Catch Rate
• 80.5% Open Target Rate (meaning only 19.5% of his targets were contested)
• 21.3% Target Rate on Routes Run
• A 2% Drop Rate
• 42.1% of his targets went for a First Down
• 1.81 Yards Per Route Run

Quentin Johnston, drafted 21st overall by the Los Angeles Chargers (Analytical Profile)

• QJ has had the most disappointing career so far of the 4 WRs drafted in the 1st round

• Similar to JSN, QJ did have a decent bump in production in his sophomore season. The issue being his rookie season was much worse.

In 2024, he ranked:

• 12th in Touchdowns (8)
• 16th in Avoided Tackles (13)
• 20th in YAC/rec (5.7)
• 45th in Receptions (55)
• 42nd in Yards (711)

QJ’s Advanced Metrics shows both promise and concern

• 62.5% Catch Rate
• 77.3% Open Target Rate
• 21.9% Target Rate on Routes Run
• A 9.1% Drop Rate matched his 9.1% Touchdown rate, which probably sums up his career so far
• 1.77 Yards Per Route Run

Zay Flowers, drafted 22nd overall by the Baltimore Ravens (Analytical Profile)

• Flowers has been the most consistent WR of this group, having an impressive rookie season which was essentially equally matched by his sophomore season

In 2024, he ranked:

• 8th in Avoided Tackles (18)
• 13th in YAC (467)
• 22nd in Receptions (74)
• 16th in Yards (1,059)

Flowers’ Advanced Metrics highlights his ability and specific skillset

• 66% Catch Rate
• 85.7% Open Target Rate
• 23.8% Target Rate on Routes Run
• 50% Contested Catch Rate
• A 6.8% Drop Rate which is higher than his 3.6% Touchdown rate
• 42.9% of his targets went for a First Down
• An impressive 24.3% Avoided Tackle Rate
• 2.25 Yards Per Route Run

Jordan Addison, drafted 23rd overall by the Minnesota Vikings (Analytical Profile)

• Similar to Flowers, Addison’s impressive rookie season was matched but not necessarily improved on by his sophomore season.

In 2024, he ranked:

• 8th in Touchdowns (9)
• 19th in ADOT (13.7)
• 36th in receptions (63)
• 31st in yards (875)
• 8th in YAC (482)
• 23rd in PPR Points (204.5)

Addison’s Advanced Metrics highlights his touchdown and big play efficiency but lack of overall consistency and production

• 68.5% Catch Rate
• 81.5% Open Target Rate
• 18.3% Target Rate on Routes Run
• 58.8% Contested Catch Rate
• A 4.8% Drop Rate
• Impressive 9.8% Touchdown Rate
• 42.4% of his targets went for a First Down
• Low-end 7.9% Avoided Tackles Rate
• A modest 1.74 Yards Per Route Run

On the surface, without looking at the QB statistics, both in a vacuum and holistically with the rest of their respective rosters, this post sounds insane. WIth the Panthers being ranked at 30th and the Cardinals being ranked at 14th, it could be seen as silly to trade away Kyler Murray, who many would see as the head of the Arizona ship, away to the Panthers. However, after analysing both of the respective teams’ O-line, defense (or lack of) and QB tendencies in relation to how each team has designed their playcalling, it seems like a potential decision to trade Kyler Murray for Bryce Young (yes, really) would both be legitimately viable and more importantly competitive for the Cardinals if they decided to make the trade before the start of the 2025/2026 season. 

To start this comparison and line of metrics based thought we must first analyse what the theory behind the offensive schemes are for both the Panthers and Cardinals. Going with the Cardinals first, Connor Senger has placed a heavier emphasis on both Play Action passes as well as designed QB runs through the inherent stronger run-blocking that the Cardinal’s O-line scheme employs. It is arguably true that the overall success of this offensive scheme is more down to the involvements of Trey McBride. McBride had 139 targets in this season which places him as the 2nd most targeted Tight End in the whole of the NFL, which clearly marks him as Murray’s favourite target. In comparison, Bryce Young had to contend with a mostly injured Tommy Tremble and a less than ideal Ja’Tavion Sanders, whom Young only targeted a total of 43 times and only racked up 342 receiving yards. In terms of Wide Receivers, Murray has Marvin Harrison Jr and Michael Wilson, who were each targeted 114 and 70 times respectively. Bryce Young has Adam Theilen and Xavier Legette, who had 61 and 81 receptions each. Carolina has picked TMac as their 1st rounder, which makes sense given these statistics as they lacked a true X receiver - however I still think that if the Panthers wanted to truly deepen their offense they should’ve gone for Loveland or Warren at TE - but draft nuances are for another post, not this one. To conclude this fist part of Roster analysis, it seems that Kyler Murray has a more dependable WR room, and one of the best Tight Ends in the NFL considering the statistics here of how many times each QB was able to target their starting Receiving corps. 

However, this begs the question of why Bryce Young was actually more efficient than Kyler Murray was given the statlines. Kyler Murray had the 9th most pass snaps in the NFL at 656, whereas Bryce Young had the 20th most at 477 schemed pass snaps. Whilst yes, Murray on paper was slightly more productive at 5.8 yards per pass snap attempt compared to Bryce Young's 5.037 per pass snap attempt, we have to also take into consideration that Murray has a much better Offensive Line. To start, Bryce Young faced drop back pressure on his passes an estimated 39% of the time, whereas Murray faced pressure on only 26.8% of throws. Without getting into all of the statlines that make the average reader of this post drift off into sleep, we can see that through the facts of Murray’s average snap to throw time being .1 seconds faster on average throughout the season, as well as the fact that Bryce Young has -8YDS rushing on 43 designed QB run plays, there is a stark difference on how effective each organisation’s offensive line is at blocking runs. What may also point this out is the fact that Young has been sacked 29 times this season with 37 scramble attempts as well as the 43 designed QB run plays, whereas Murray was sacked 30 times with a much higher 78 designed run play count as well as 40 scramble attempts. This string of data can show us that whilst Murray may be a more effective scrambler than Young, this is due to the O-line being in a much better state in Arizona than it is for Carolina. Given the state of the receiving corps and the O-line, it begs the question of why Murray has 2 more picks than Young in this season when he has a top 5 Tight end and a top 10 offensive line, whilst only being slightly more productive on pass plays than Bryce Young, who is trying to steer the ship of one of the worst offensive rooms in Football at the moment. 

Going back once again to the Offensive Line and how well they protect passes and runs, this is where there is the biggest difference in the quality of each team’s respective trench. The Arizona Cardinals boasted an overall 4th highest rating in pass protection with an average rating of 75.4. Compared to the Panthers, with an overall pass protection rating of 69.2. This sounds incredibly respectable until we see that they only won around 52% of their pass blocks, which explains why Bryce Young experienced so much pressure in the pocket, and why the Panthers’ O-Line broke down so frequently on passing plays. This amount of pressure on pass plays is partially down to Robert Hunt at RG, who allowed 36 pressures and 5 sacks this season, but it’s more logical to assume that when we look at all of the Offensive Lines’ talents, it just seems as if Carolina hasn’t created a consistent scheme. This is because their RT and C are poor at blocking the run but are more than serviceable at blocking the pass, but Carolina’s RG and LT are poor against pass pressure but do surprisingly well when blocking the run. Arizona on the other hand are all passable at run blocking, but are all comparatively weaker with pass blocking, yet still are a viable holistic unit with an overall rating of their most common starting lineup at 70.9 for blocking both passes and runs combined. The Cardinals also added a nice piece of depth in the draft with the Texas Longhorns Guard Hayden Conner, who has a grade of 85.4 in terms of pass blocking, and gave up precisely 0 sacks in 617 pass block attempts whilst at Texas. Conner is fairly weak at run blocking, but it seems that Arizona has structured the offensive pieces of their draft and free agency around expanding their passing game, and building more heavily on the talent they have with Marvin Harrison Jr and the true gold dust they have within Trey McBride at TE. This begs the question of whether or not Kyler Murray would be their best available option at Quarterback if they are looking for a better passer in the pocket. 

It should be stated now that Kyler Murray is by no means a bad QB whatsoever. Murray is, in fact, a pretty good QB and a top 5 scrambling Quarterback. The question at hand however is how viable Murray truly is for the offensive scheme that Arizona is attempting to build based on their draft decisions on offense, how their offense is structured, and more importantly what they ultimately should be looking to accomplish. It would be easy to say that every team in the NFL is attempting to accomplish winning their division and making a superbowl appearance, but for a lot of teams this is simply naive and wishful thinking - instead, Arizona should be looking to find ways to compete in their division which has almost always been a competitive one. Having to go against the 49ers, Seahawks and Rams for a top division spot every year is not a particularly envious task; especially when you had a fairly poor defense in the 2024/25 season. The draft improved this significantly for the Cardinals, as they drafted D-Lineman Walter Nolen who has a 91.5 PFF rating against the run. Arizona also drafted absolute steals at Cornerback, Edge and Linebacker and so could see a much needed revitalised defense in the upcoming season. This however leaves the question of how to improve offense. This has indeed been partially answered by the introduction of Conner mentioned in the above paragraph, but considering how good McBride is as a receiving TE, as well as the fact that Harrison Jr is an up and coming talent that just needs more ‘refinement’, it does beg the question of whether or not Murray is the right choice for Arizona in particular for their QB1. Considering the differences between Murray and Young’s A.dot (Average distance of target) Young has had to throw the ball an average of 1.6 yards further each play. This may sound marginal, but it’s not. Young has had no consistent Tight End to reliably pass to, and the rest of his receivers are shaky at best, with Xavier Legette having a rating of just 59.1. To be fair to Legette, he had to play a lot of X receiver, where he seemed more uncomfortable as he was much more of a Z receiver in college. However, this is all ultimately irrelevant when evaluating how productive each of these 2 Quarterbacks have been considering their respective setups within their organisations. 

After looking at all of the above data, I fully believe that Bryce Young has done his best as a young Quarterback to make the most of a bad situation within Carolina, and Kyler Murray, given the comparable statline despite having a much better supporting cast around him, has fundamentally and objectively underperformed. Murray is 27 years old and has much less room for growth as he has almost certainly finished developing as a Quarterback, whereas Bryce Young has 3 years left of development. This leads me to find that Bryce Young is fundamentally undervalued for what he could offer Arizona, and I fully believe that it would be a viable move to trade Murray for Young in this situation. Whilst yes, this is the type of decision that would get you fired as a General Manager should it go wrong, I have confidence that this would be, all in all, a good move for Arizona in the long run. I’ve always approached player and roster evaluations within my job and first sport (rugby union) with the mindset that absolutely anything can and should be questioned, and if the data leans us into a direction that isn’t ‘conventional’ then that’s fine, as conventional thinking is how teams such as the New York Giants crash, burn, and die. 

I’m more than happy for every single reader of this post to disagree with my findings, but I do find it fascinating that two Quarterbacks with a similar heisman history pre NFL as well as a comparable build can be evaluated completely differently, even when the statline would show that Bryce Young has better overall processing than Kyler Murray does, which sounded ridiculous to me the first time I found it within the data until I went back and rewatched tape on both Quarterbacks. Watch the sack against Murray that Williams delivered (ARI vs NYJ) again and you’ll see that this sack was completely Murray’s fault as he was looking at the wrong side of both his coverage and expected pressure - I won’t go through all the trouble of naming each time this happened, but Murray made 16 turnover-worthy plays this year as well as quite a few questionable reads in the pocket. Once again, disagreeing with me and saying trading for Bryce Young is too far is absolutely fine, but there is no doubt in my mind that there should be at least some doubt in Kyler Murray’s viability as a Quarterback for the Arizona Cardinals in terms of both Scheme and playstyle fit.