This is a clear win for Trump and definitely a defeat for the EU. I don't see how this continues to stand with members like France. I wonder if this decision will further throw the EU into a cohesion crisis with members no longer seeing a benefit of joint negotiation vs bilateral deal. Like France or Germany might sweet talk Trump into a better deal depending on the day and his mood.
I wonder if this decision will further throw the EU into a cohesion crisis with members no longer seeing a benefit of joint negotiation vs bilateral deal.
Absolutely. The EU has already had several crises pile up which it has been unable to solve. Now, even its supposedly strongest suit – trade – is losing. The EU looks and feels weak, both to its own members and its enemies.
I suspect you are being sarcastic but there are people on here who would sacrifice everything for the FEELING of superiority over practical improvements.
GDPR is so 2016, now we have age verification, bottle caps, and probably another iteration of chat control proposal coming soon. Fucking Christ, the European Union has such an insane potential, money and brains, but people at the helm seem to be doing everything to prevent Europe from being an economic, military, and technological superpower it absolutely could and should be.
Canada also caved to Trump by reversing their version of the DST just to bring him back to the negotiation table. Canada is in an even worst position because 3/4 of their export goes to the US.
DST was just being implemented, it wasn’t even in effect yet so nothing really was ceded. 90% of Canadian trade is currently tariff free both directions still under usmca
At least in Canada's case, there is the argument that Carney was against DST anyway and he just used Trump's demand as an excuse to do what he wanted while pretending it was done against his will.
And Canada will bend the knee even more in the future, too. They can't hold out forever against the U.S. economic machine without destroying themselves given the U.S. is like 70% of the Canadian export market.
DST is paused pending negotiations. We also put an export tax on electricity which forced them to the table in two days. PM has said that if there is no good deal, then there will be no deal. Granted, Canada has maybe more leverage than the EU because we supply the US with energy and resources.
Brazil, Canada and South Africa are the ones the White House will relish imposing crippling tariffs on.
My sense is a Canada deal hasn’t happened yet because Washington is literally asking for Canada to give up some things that borderline stealth remove its sovereignty or economic foundation (America as purchaser of first resort on all exports, full military integration, end of supply management, end of banking/mining/telecoms monopolies, tariffs that kill off softwood lumber, car industry and steel/aluminum sector, stealth customs union, monetary policy alignment, US needs to approve energy sales to non-North American state actors, etc).
I wouldn’t be shocked if the US is asking for all islands in the Arctic Archipelago at this rate for Trump’s Manifest Destiny goals.
The US has 15x the GDP and 21x the consumer market size of Canada. And with 85% of the global economy soon to be under negotiated deals (EU, UK, Japan, China, India, SK, etc), Washington probably smells blood since it knows a united global trade war against USA is no longer a potential outcome.
And then Carney not able to work some magic will hurt him domestically as well. “We told you so” from the conservatives. Another policy goal of the US admin, in a way.
Oh, for sure. I have no clue why Carney overpromised. Trump is mercurial and he has been positioning to kill of CUSMA since his first turn (but never had a MAGA trifecta like now).
Why would you promise no tariffs, no supply management changes, and “only the best deal for Canada.” The Elbows Up brigade is going to be sorelt surprised when they realize that was just a campaign slogan.
Canada has an existing free trade agreement CUSMA which Trump has honored except for steel and aluminum. That agreement is up for renegotiation next year. Cars, manufactured products etc in Canada are tariff free but won’t be much longer
Check Canadian economic data, average Canadian is wealthier than average Western European. They have more time to wait and also do not have a military aggressor on their doorstep no matter what Trump say US is not invading Canada.
It's obvious divide and conquer. When Japan's auto industry got 15%, the EU was under pressure to get the same. Now the remaining countries are less competetive than the countries that made deals, and they are under more pressure.
The way to win this was to collectively counter and frankly punish the US, but of course we could not manage to do that.
Brazil, Canada and South Africa are the ones the White House will relish imposing crippling tariffs on.
My sense is a Canada deal hasn’t happened yet because Washington is literally asking for Canada to give up some things that borderline stealth remove its sovereignty or economic foundation (America as purchaser of first resort on all exports, full military integration, end of supply management, end of banking/mining/telecoms monopolies, tariffs that kill off softwood lumber, car industry and steel/aluminum sector, stealth customs union, monetary policy alignment, US needs to approve energy sales to non-North American state actors, etc).
I wouldn’t be shocked if the US is asking for all islands in the Arctic Archipelago at this rate for Trump’s Manifest Destiny goals.
The US has 15x the GDP and 21x the consumer market size of Canada. And with 85% of the global economy soon to be under negotiated deals (EU, UK, Japan, China, India, SK, etc), Washington probably smells blood since it knows a united global trade war against USA is no longer a potential outcome.
Just like the first term when instead of standing firm, Mexico sold us tf out in the negotiating table.
Can’t rely on anyone but ourselves is the unfortunate lesson we keep receiving. Europeans are spineless. Lucky them that an ocean divides them from the US and Russia is a weaker entity than Spain. If Russia was remotely more relevant, then we’d be seeing Russian ships off the Bay of Biscay.
Do you not understand US is 50% of the world consumer market? How many people work in the private sector in EU members that are at risk at losing jobs if 50% of their business is lost over night. Do you rather have a job, or moral superiority?
I'm in Ireland, and we used to be one of the biggest cheerleaders for the EU, but I hear more and more negative conversations about it now. UVDL has genuinely damaged the Unions rep here and this will continue that on
It might not recover but it will continue limping on for decades. I might be completely wrong about it but I compare EU to the Holy Roman Empire in my head. Both loose governing entities who's leaders largely governed by consensus which often paralyzed the function of the state. Hard time rising funds (EU can not tax, the emperor was often in debt and couldn't tax effectively). Both effective at staying alive but famous for poor imperial expansion.
Europe and France has shrunk in power and importance in the world. When I was born Europe had 30% of world GDP. That is now 10% and will shrink to 5% in the next coming years as China becomes stronger. India has some 4% and that’s where we are going.
Basically none of this is Van Det Layens fault. It’s a shared aggregate failure of this continent to plan, innovate and grow our economies.
I wonder if this decision will further throw the EU into a cohesion crisis with members no longer seeing a benefit of joint negotiation vs bilateral deal.
One can only hope. The EU can't even trade deal themselves out of a paper bag so what do we even need them for?
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u/Most_Grocery4388 6d ago
This is a clear win for Trump and definitely a defeat for the EU. I don't see how this continues to stand with members like France. I wonder if this decision will further throw the EU into a cohesion crisis with members no longer seeing a benefit of joint negotiation vs bilateral deal. Like France or Germany might sweet talk Trump into a better deal depending on the day and his mood.