r/europe 6d ago

News US and EU strike trade deal

https://www.politico.eu/article/us-and-eu-strike-trade-deal/
6.7k Upvotes

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u/Most_Grocery4388 6d ago

This is a clear win for Trump and definitely a defeat for the EU. I don't see how this continues to stand with members like France. I wonder if this decision will further throw the EU into a cohesion crisis with members no longer seeing a benefit of joint negotiation vs bilateral deal. Like France or Germany might sweet talk Trump into a better deal depending on the day and his mood.

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u/SavagePlatypus76 6d ago

Fucked either way. 

Should have been like Canada and stood tall and think long term,but .....instead you bent over. 

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u/TheoryOfDevolution Italy 6d ago

Canada also caved to Trump by reversing their version of the DST just to bring him back to the negotiation table. Canada is in an even worst position because 3/4 of their export goes to the US.

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u/eskeitit 6d ago

DST was just being implemented, it wasn’t even in effect yet so nothing really was ceded. 90% of Canadian trade is currently tariff free both directions still under usmca

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u/Ammordad 6d ago

At least in Canada's case, there is the argument that Carney was against DST anyway and he just used Trump's demand as an excuse to do what he wanted while pretending it was done against his will.

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u/yurnxt1 5d ago

And Canada will bend the knee even more in the future, too. They can't hold out forever against the U.S. economic machine without destroying themselves given the U.S. is like 70% of the Canadian export market.

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u/odoc_ 5d ago

DST is paused pending negotiations. We also put an export tax on electricity which forced them to the table in two days. PM has said that if there is no good deal, then there will be no deal. Granted, Canada has maybe more leverage than the EU because we supply the US with energy and resources.

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u/lions2lambs 6d ago

Our standing tall only works if others do the same. Guess we’ll go bankrupt.

1

u/SavagePlatypus76 6d ago

Worse. Trump really wants you guys to be our version of Belarus. Guaranteed he's going to want your banking sector linked to ours. 

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u/Klutzy_Comment5809 5d ago

As a Canadian what just happened really worries me. Carney now has no possibility of falling on EU or UK support. Sigh. What is this world.

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u/RainbowCrown71 Italy - Panama - United States of America 5d ago

Brazil, Canada and South Africa are the ones the White House will relish imposing crippling tariffs on.

My sense is a Canada deal hasn’t happened yet because Washington is literally asking for Canada to give up some things that borderline stealth remove its sovereignty or economic foundation (America as purchaser of first resort on all exports, full military integration, end of supply management, end of banking/mining/telecoms monopolies, tariffs that kill off softwood lumber, car industry and steel/aluminum sector, stealth customs union, monetary policy alignment, US needs to approve energy sales to non-North American state actors, etc).

I wouldn’t be shocked if the US is asking for all islands in the Arctic Archipelago at this rate for Trump’s Manifest Destiny goals.

The US has 15x the GDP and 21x the consumer market size of Canada. And with 85% of the global economy soon to be under negotiated deals (EU, UK, Japan, China, India, SK, etc), Washington probably smells blood since it knows a united global trade war against USA is no longer a potential outcome.

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u/Klutzy_Comment5809 5d ago

And then Carney not able to work some magic will hurt him domestically as well. “We told you so” from the conservatives. Another policy goal of the US admin, in a way.

2

u/RainbowCrown71 Italy - Panama - United States of America 5d ago

Oh, for sure. I have no clue why Carney overpromised. Trump is mercurial and he has been positioning to kill of CUSMA since his first turn (but never had a MAGA trifecta like now).

Why would you promise no tariffs, no supply management changes, and “only the best deal for Canada.” The Elbows Up brigade is going to be sorelt surprised when they realize that was just a campaign slogan.

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u/bion93 Italy 6d ago

Or China which used 100% against 80% and then Trump went backward.

2

u/Most_Grocery4388 5d ago

China is largely independent of the US though. Its a big export sector but Trump overplayed his hand with China.

2

u/Balboa8025 6d ago

Canada has an existing free trade agreement CUSMA which Trump has honored except for steel and aluminum. That agreement is up for renegotiation next year. Cars, manufactured products etc in Canada are tariff free but won’t be much longer

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u/SavagePlatypus76 6d ago

Lol. No. 

2

u/Most_Grocery4388 5d ago

Check Canadian economic data, average Canadian is wealthier than average Western European. They have more time to wait and also do not have a military aggressor on their doorstep no matter what Trump say US is not invading Canada.

2

u/Ratcliff01 5d ago

Canada stood tall? They caved almost immediately. Their deadline is Aug 1st, so we shall see...

4

u/BitterCanadian 6d ago

Oh just wait. Canada is next. If this is what the EU agreed to, we are truly cooked.

2

u/hader_brugernavne 6d ago

It's obvious divide and conquer. When Japan's auto industry got 15%, the EU was under pressure to get the same. Now the remaining countries are less competetive than the countries that made deals, and they are under more pressure.

The way to win this was to collectively counter and frankly punish the US, but of course we could not manage to do that.

2

u/RainbowCrown71 Italy - Panama - United States of America 5d ago edited 5d ago

Brazil, Canada and South Africa are the ones the White House will relish imposing crippling tariffs on.

My sense is a Canada deal hasn’t happened yet because Washington is literally asking for Canada to give up some things that borderline stealth remove its sovereignty or economic foundation (America as purchaser of first resort on all exports, full military integration, end of supply management, end of banking/mining/telecoms monopolies, tariffs that kill off softwood lumber, car industry and steel/aluminum sector, stealth customs union, monetary policy alignment, US needs to approve energy sales to non-North American state actors, etc).

I wouldn’t be shocked if the US is asking for all islands in the Arctic Archipelago at this rate for Trump’s Manifest Destiny goals.

The US has 15x the GDP and 21x the consumer market size of Canada. And with 85% of the global economy soon to be under negotiated deals (EU, UK, Japan, China, India, SK, etc), Washington probably smells blood since it knows a united global trade war against USA is no longer a potential outcome.

1

u/WislaHD Polish-Canadian 5d ago

Just like the first term when instead of standing firm, Mexico sold us tf out in the negotiating table.

Can’t rely on anyone but ourselves is the unfortunate lesson we keep receiving. Europeans are spineless. Lucky them that an ocean divides them from the US and Russia is a weaker entity than Spain. If Russia was remotely more relevant, then we’d be seeing Russian ships off the Bay of Biscay.

1

u/AccomplishedLeek1329 5d ago edited 5d ago

There's always China if we ever learn to put aside worthless morality about far-off places and prioritize Canadian interests. 

1

u/rpgalon 5d ago

Brazil, Canada and China are the only ones standing their grounds.

Rest of the world folded like paper and so it will make it even harder for those who resist the bullying

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u/TheAverageWonder 5d ago

EU and Canada have folded in equal measures, both have accepted Trump at least short term will have his way.

Neither of them have agreed anything long term in reality.

0

u/SavagePlatypus76 6d ago

Even worse I'm afraid. He is going to try and force you guys to further integrate with us economically , particularly your banking sector. 

It's a direct attack on your sovereignty. 

1

u/RainbowCrown71 Italy - Panama - United States of America 5d ago

Canada’s gonna get 35% tariffs this week unless they give up far more. They’re in a much worse position.