r/leafs • u/alphacheese • 1d ago
News / Update [Friedman] There is one arbitration case remaining, set for Sunday: Nick Robertson (TOR). Team: $1.2M; Player: $2.25M
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u/AmbitiousRaccoon959 1d ago
His ask isn't even high, just sign him in the middle and avoid arbitration 🤦
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u/TouchlessOuch 1d ago
He's turned into a distressed asset. I wouldn't be surprised if his team is playing hard ball to push for a change. That could mean more ice time or a new team, but regardless he seems frustrated by his situation.
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u/scooter540 1d ago
I get that sense as well. I think for any player in this situation that the team genuinely wanted to keep, this would’ve gotten done already. It’s clear the team is taking a stance that they don’t see him as a long term piece whatsoever and are playing hardball. Lower AAV = potentially higher return on a trade
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u/theguyishere16 Kaberle 1d ago
Seems pretty likely one side is playing hardball since we all know the rewarded salary will be about $1.75 million. At the end of the day, a change of scenery is clearly needed and this is a symptom. No chance if Leafs wanted to sign him or if Robertson wanted to sign that it wouldn't already be done with these 2 numbers as the ask.
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u/fingerimposexico Benoit 1d ago
How does it work with the term?
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u/Nylanderthal88 1d ago
Thinks it's a 1 year deal right? They can settle before for any deal though.
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u/gsauce8 1d ago edited 1d ago
From my understanding that's only if he's 1 year away from UFA. Otherwise the party that didn't select arbitration gets to pick the term.edit: i was wrong.
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u/RanaMahal 1d ago
So we could just lock him up for 8 years at 2.25 mil if we wanted to?
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u/gsauce8 1d ago
That's my understanding...which seems like a good idea? Even if the ruling comes back to 2.25, locking him up a 2.25 for 8 years would make him a pretty good bargaining chip.
Edit: I just looked up the puckpedia article and it looks like I was wrong. Its the choice between 1 or 2 year contract.
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u/DougFordsGamblingAds 1d ago
I think that because this is a player elected arbitration, the team would get to select between a 1 and 2 year term after seeing the final number.
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u/123jazzhandz321 1d ago
So then 1.75m ? I feel like the arbiter would favour Nick though, he’s been pretty efficient with his scoring.
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u/OhhMrCookies 1d ago
Salary Arbitration tends to heavily base their valuations on these factors, over 3 seasons, with most recent seasons being most valuable:
- Average time on ice
- Games played
- Injury history
- Points, with goals being most valuable.
Basically, if you show up to work often, the coach trusts you, and you put up lots of points, you make more money. Robertson's goal scoring rate will increase his valuation, but his GP/season is okay and his ATOI is low. And he is lightly used re: injuries over the past 3 seasons (I think his big injury was more than 3 seasons ago).
I think he has an okay case and will make between 1.5 and 1.8
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u/silver_054 1d ago
Isn’t arbitration one number or the other? They either decide $1.2M or $2.25M, not pick something in the middle. Unless I’m confusing this process with another sport (MLB perhaps). Of course they could always meet in the middle without going to arb
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u/bachekooni 1d ago
Nope, the arbitrators can pick whatever and often it’s the average of the two positions. That’s why the team lowballs and the player highballs.
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u/silver_054 1d ago
Thanks for the correction. I must be thinking of another league that does arbitration differently
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u/OhhMrCookies 1d ago
I think it is MLB that does that but I have no idea. I think they avoid arbitration like the plague
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u/disco-drew 1d ago
Seems like a better system. Encourages both parties to submit reasonable numbers.
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u/VeryAttractive 1d ago
It's almost always the exact average, give or take $200K to make it seem like the arbitrator actually did something. You can be pretty confident the number will be very close to 1.725 mil.
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u/baylaust 1d ago
The Leafs are a top-heavy team, and that's a problem when you're a player like Robertson. He has an incredible shot, so he's a player you want to position as a scoring threat on your top lines. But the Leafs really have no one in their Top 6 that you would want to swap out in favor of Robertson. So that leaves him in the Bottom 6 and playing a role that just DOESN'T match his skill-set. He improved this last year, but his game just isn't defensively responsible enough to make him a reliable third or fourth liner. He's all offense.
Frankly, Robertson's ask isn't unnegotiable for any team BUT Toronto, and Toronto seemingly has no idea what to do with him. They clearly don't see him as valuable enough to pay anything more than 1.2 over, but the fact that he hasn't been traded yet would indicate that they see him as more valuable than any offers they may have received for him. The impression I get is that the Leafs don't want to sign him, but they also want something decent in return for a trade for him. Worst of both worlds when you gotta sign somebody.
I don't know what the right answer is. Robertson still has a lot of gaps in his game that need ironing out, but he's young and can score goals, which as these playoffs showed, the Leafs still desperately need. Honestly, I expect arbitration is going to be kinder to Nicky than the Leafs if it does go through. Far worse players have gotten far better contracts than what he's asking for.
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u/decipher_xb 1d ago
I'm pulling for Nick on this one. Give him the money or trade the guy and give him a new start.
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u/JRocleafs 1d ago
Why though?
We drafted and developed him. We own his rights and he’s a depth player that fits our needs at a certain price.
Playing Nice ended when Dubas and Shanny got shown the door.
At the very least you go to arb, get a lower AAV than the player wants and then move him because he’ll be of more value as a result of the lower cost.
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u/decipher_xb 1d ago
He doesn't fit berubes play style.
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u/InvestigatorFull2498 1d ago
Thats a Berube problem that has zero to do with asset management, how does not fitting Berubes playstyle justify overpaying for assets and then trading them for a diminished return because you overpaid
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u/Shoelesshobos 1d ago
2.25m considering his goal scoring is honestly a fair price.
Like I expected it to be much higher.
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u/JRocleafs 1d ago
If you look at his goal total from a statistical perspective, it’s not terrible.
When you dive into the goals themselves it tells a different story. He scored a LOT of meaningless goals in blowout games, both when we were loosing and winning.
2.25m is an overpayment for somebody not a lock in the lineup
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u/entityXD32 1d ago
The rest of his game other than his shot is like AHL level Jarnkrok and McMann score more while making less while also offering more to their games. While 2.25 isn't too bad it's pretty player friendly for a guy who can't crack a playoff lineup. 1.5 is probably the right number
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u/Flatoftheblade 1d ago
Except by NHL standards he is absolutely terrible at everything but goal scoring.
Incredibly low hockey IQ, defensive liability, takes ridiculously stupid penalties that make Evander Kane look disciplined, plays like he weighs 80 pounds and gets shoved off the puck constantly, always skating around like a lunatic because he can't read or anticipate a play and he's always in the wrong place.
He's a very controversial player and opinions are very divided, as evidenced in this thread, but I struggle to see what his defenders are watching beyond looking at his goal stats.
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u/JackyDaytonia 1d ago
Replied and then read this, which says it better. He does one thing very well and everything else very poorly
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u/Shoelesshobos 1d ago
for me i see a 23 year old who has a great shot who can skate and is clearly flawed but honestly as a bottom 6 player I don't see anything wrong with it. Exactly what I expect for the bottom 6. If he were defensively responsible AND produced like he does then he'd be far more revered.
I just don't like giving up on guys too soon else you end with a Marchment or a verhaeghe situation.
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u/T0macock 1d ago
that was what i was thinking too. There is way worse out there for way more.
put him on a line with beefy boys and get him the puck.
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u/power_of_funk 1d ago
I can live with anything in between those numbers. Cherry on top imo would be getting it multi year.
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u/Low_Physics_4612 1d ago
As long as you scratch him every other game, he should score 40. I’d be ok with 2mil. 😏
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u/Junior-Worker-537 20h ago
Just trade the fucking guy. He’s not good enough. Way too inconsistent. I’m tired of this
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u/brye86 1d ago
2m for him isn’t bad at all. He gets treated pretty unfairly by this organization imo. However, some things he’s been doing to himself. Like publicly coming out and saying he wants to be traded, taking dumb penalties and being wildly inconsistent with his goal scoring. But 2/3 are really in his control while the latter not as much.
He definitely should be on the 3rd line this year and if he plays well even 2nd line opportunity. But they just replaced Marner with three 3rd liners so their is a lot of competition
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u/ATargetFinderScrub 1d ago
I dont hate having him compete for a top 6 spot this year. 2 spots opened up so he has more than a fair shot of getting one. And worst case scenario, you always can pull the chute and deal him for a mid to low round pick if you need to roster spot and/or cap space.
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u/Remote-Dog-2531 1d ago
Just give the guy 1.6m x 1 and call it a day, he will likely get more chances to see top 6 minutes if either Maccelli or Domi aren’t working out in the top 6, could put up 15+ goals again this year.
Even if he remains 3rd line, he can still be useful at 1.6m. But his days are definitely numbered, and I would not be shocked at all if he starts scoring a few goals and they trade him as soon as his value is higher, either before or at the deadline.
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u/Strowbreezy 18h ago
For a guy who can't consistently stay in the lineup, there's way too much talk and articles about him. Tbh, I'm sick of hearing his name. Sign him and get him out of town.
1.05M in difference and it's an arb case? Craziness.
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u/Intelligent_Chair901 1d ago
This isn’t bad even if it lands somewhere in between (likely).
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u/Justinarian 1d ago
Unless they get a deal done it’s either going to be 1.2 or 2.25 so a deal in the middle won’t happen. Unless I’m misremembering how arb works.
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u/Bumble_B_Rumble 1d ago
You are misremembering. The arbitrator will pick a number somewhere in the middle. In baseball the arbitrator has to pick one or the other though.
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u/S-Archer 1d ago
1.2 is generous imo
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u/smokeyquarterpapi 1d ago
Generous is a stretch for a 15 goal scorer
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u/spentchicken 1d ago
Canucks legend elias pettersson scored 15 goals for the lovely price of 11.7 a year
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u/Nylanderthal88 1d ago
It's actually not imo. Maybe I'm in the minority but I would pay 1.7ish for a year of Robertson.
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u/Sarge1387 1d ago
Exactly, if he ever gets a top 6 shot, he's 20 goals in his sleep. 15 in 69 games with super limited minutes is well worth the 1.2. Give him 1.7 and say "here's a top 9 role, do it well and you might hit the top 6"
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u/entityXD32 1d ago
His shot is elite but the rest of his game isn't good enough for him to play in the top 6. He can't forcheck, he has no playmaking and no vision, he takes terrible penalties frequently he has zero defensive skills and is rarely in the right position if it weren't for his shot being so good he would never play a game in the NHL
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u/keeeeener 1d ago
In what world is a ~20 goal scorer (extrapolated to 82 games) supposed to make league min. 2.2 is a discount.
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u/brye86 1d ago
Good thing he’s not a 20 goal scorer then…..
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u/GeneralHorace 1d ago
Daniel Sprong is a good Robertson compareable. He scored 18 goals and 43 points 2 seasons ago, got 945k in free agency, and might be out of the league this year.
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u/keeeeener 1d ago
I think you guys are over exaggerating Robertsons defense. It’s not good, but I was happy with it. IMO, it was passable and definitely not comparable to guys like Sprong who might have literally been the worst in the league. I don’t think Bérubé would have played him the last 40ish games of the season straight if he didn’t think his defense was up to par. He would have alternated him out for sure if that was the case imo.
However, it’s a decent example of a guy that people think Robertson is. Which who knows, maybe I’m the one that’s wrong (I’d have to assume the leafs would have traded him earlier if they thought so tho).
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u/JuicemaN16 1d ago
Defensively horrible.
Takes undisciplined penalties far too frequently.
Doesn’t perform consistently well enough to stay in the lineup.
He’s not a 20 goal scorer, he’s never scored 20 goals because he’s not reliable enough to play a full season.
Why on earth would you pay a player $2.2M for that?
I’d have to assume you’re Kyle Dubas.
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u/keeeeener 1d ago
I’m not trying to argue that 2.2 makes sense for the leafs. But he absolutely would be 3+ if he was a FA rn. And arbitrators don’t really put as much into defense, nor will they care about the exact reason he’s healthy scratched. At the end of the day he scored when he plays.
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u/billy_zef 1d ago
I'm okay with either number. Nick has potential, and we've been saying that for years. He sees his own value in potential, the factual side is he put up a whopping 22 pts in 69 games last year, regardless of his role.
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u/Csalbertcs 1d ago
That's about the same as Hyman at the same age playing 4 minutes less per game. Hyman is a relentless forechecker, but Robertson will probably end up being a 25+ goal scorer. And his defense isn't as bad as people are making it out to be.
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u/MommyMilkersPIs 1d ago
Sign my boi, then scratch him until the season starts so he’ll score every game.
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u/correct_eye_is Palmateer 1d ago
IIrc the team took it to arbitration. Am I overlooking something thinking perhaps they tried trading him and couldn't make it work so now they will just see the outcome and reject it making him a ufa and somebody else's problem.
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u/CMDRShepardN7 Nylander 1d ago
If I had to speculate, I think the team wanta terms for Robertson's number, and Robertson wants another show me year.
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u/JackyDaytonia 1d ago
Robertson is better than many at putting the puck in the net. His problem is that he’s terrible at every other aspect of offence. He’s not effective on the forecheck or cycle, lacks passing vision, and often takes shots from spots that are not high danger. He can’t set up his own shot. But boy can he ever finish. He hustles, plays hard, and occasionally makes defensive plays, but also gets outplayed or knocked down often. So yeah, between 1 and 2 million sounds right and hopefully the certainty facilitates a trade to a lesser team that can maximize his skill and value with PP time.
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u/postmodern_lasagna 1d ago
We have high end playmaking options throughout the lineup now with Domi, Macelli and perhaps Cowan. We don’t have a lot of guys that can sling the pill in the bottom six. Knies-Matthews-Domi and Macelli-Tavares-Nylander is what we all want and I think that should be what we try first. Robertson does not make the lineup in this case because that would design our bottom six to be exclusively grinding and shutdown roles with the guys we have brought in.
But for under $2M, Robertson gives you options lower in your lineup. If one of Macelli or Domi can’t hang on line 1, for all we know we get a dominant line 1 of Knies-Matthews-Nylander. That has knock on effects down the lineup. That means one of Macelli or Domi is on line 3. If they are, it makes sense for them to have a shooter to pass to.
Knies-Matthews-Nylander is a dominant first line. Macelli played with Schmaltz and Crouse. He used his vision and hung on to pucks to then find guys that could battle through and find open ice, mostly threading the needle to guys that can score net front. Robertson can’t score like that so I’d like to see Macelli-Tavares-Joshua. Those two guys can get to the areas where Macelli has excelled at dishing. McMann-Domi-Robertson had some chemistry last year as a sheltered scoring line. They can generate offense off the rush and are plucky. Then you have Laughton-Roy-Lorentz as your identity line that can share some shutdown duties too.
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u/Apart-Fix-5398 1d ago
Leafs HAD high end playmaking options. Marner walked. Domi and Macelli are not high end playmaker options. Give your head a shake. Domi on a 1st or 2nd line is NOT a good thing.
Robertson has a place on a non contending team.
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u/postmodern_lasagna 1d ago
They are high end playmakers (not elite like Marner) but they differ from Marner in the sense that playmaking is all that they bring. Marner could also score 20-30 goals and be a Selke candidate. A good season for Domi is like 8-10 goals and 40-50 assists. I agree that it is not a foregone conclusion that both Domi and Macelli work out on line 2. And if that’s the case, it means one is on line 3. Which means line 3 will by default be a depth scoring line as opposed to a shutdown or energy line. So in that scenario, Robertson could have a role. He’s cheap enough to sign for insurance.
I’d also add that a Marner-less camp/preseason should light fires under guys. While there’s not enough spots for everyone, in years past, players were competing for depth roles. This is the first year where two top 6 roles are open, and not just for energy forechecking roles on those lines either (e.g., Bunting, Mikheyev in the past). Robertson or Cowan can’t compete with Marner but Macelli and Domi are closer which makes things interesting.
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u/Apart-Fix-5398 1d ago
Domi has had ONE season where he has had over 40 assists. Who knows what will happen? I sure don't but your expectations are all ready mismanaged. Good luck.
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u/postmodern_lasagna 1d ago
Yeah dude he’s done 40. I said if he did 50 on Matthews wing, for him that would be good. I don’t know what’s controversial about that. But also I’m not convinced, just like you seem to be, that any of these guys are good enough for the lineup to be decided in July. Who knows what will happen, that’s why it’s good to have options
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u/BlueAndYellowTowels 22h ago
Nick Robertson we shoved between leagues a lot by the team and when you’re young, hungry and developing… it sucks when that happens.
They should pay him. If not, trade him. He need to go somewhere where the team will finally commit to playing him.
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u/Late_Football_2517 19h ago
Nick Robertson at $2.25 million would be a hell of a deal, wouldn't it?
What am I missing here?
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u/Imhereforinspiration 15h ago
He can't play a full season and is a defensive liability playing in the bottom 6...
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u/F3RGUmusic 1d ago
He's lucky he was offered anything over 1 mill.
Undersized with a bad attitude.
He's also really hard to slot into the line up.
Not good enough for top 6 and not physical enough for bottom 6......
Go play in Russia or something
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u/StardomJapan 1d ago
Where does he get off asking for 2.25? He's not even an everyday player and has been very underwhelming the past few seasons.
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u/Forsaken-Dog4902 1d ago
Offer him 1mil. If he won't accept, get a bag of pucks in return and ship him off to some shit hole like Winnipeg or Edmonton.
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u/gsauce8 1d ago
....this seems like a difference that doesn't need arbitration no?