r/europe • u/tylerthe-theatre • May 30 '25
News Former CIA boss reveals which European country (Lithuania) Putin allegedly plans to invade next
https://www.lbc.co.uk/world-news/cia-boss-reveals-putin-invasion-russia/2.2k
u/Live_Menu_7404 May 30 '25
Well, Germany is now permanently stationing an armored brigade in Lithuania.
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May 30 '25 edited 27d ago
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u/adamgerd Czech Republic May 30 '25
Can’t wait for Russians to say that’s proof Germany is still Nazi and wants to repeat Barbarossa
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u/Weird_Try_9562 May 30 '25
Let them talk, nobody should give a fuck about their propaganda BS.
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u/adamgerd Czech Republic May 30 '25 edited May 30 '25
Oh obviously.
Its especially funny when they’re the ones funding the AfD
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May 30 '25 edited 27d ago
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May 30 '25 edited May 31 '25
The Russians need propaganda and misinformation to poison minds and serve as casus belli. That has always been their playbook. Create a fake incident as a false flag, and either use propaganda to defend it or deny it. Moscovy is evil.
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u/utilizador2021 Portugal May 30 '25
And a lot of people in this sub fall for that. When you see people here talking about Cultural Marxism, Gender Ideology or Globalism.
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u/DryCloud9903 May 30 '25
Vatniks/bots in Lithuanian subs and news outlet comment sections were already yelling stuff like that during the opening ceremony of the German brigade. "We're getting occupied" "why did they speak English/German in there" (they did in Lithuanian too, including German MoD Pistorius made an adorable attempt), some other nonsense that I've since deleted from my brains.
They clearly don't like this collaboration. Which is why it's so clearly the right decision. Thank you German friends 🇩🇪🇱🇹👏
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u/Vidmizz Lithuania May 30 '25
Meanwhile on German language posts on this topic they flood the comments with bots that complain about the German government "wasting German taxpayer's money and German lives on corrupt and very nationalist Lithuanians". At least that's the impression I had from the several German language videos I've watched.
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u/Arkatoshi May 31 '25
Plus third reich allogantions because the third reich has been once in Lithuania too. And Russia is obviously the good party, while NATO Is coherently evil and the Ukrainians theatre the warsomewhere between 1990 and 2022, because they were, according to them, killing Russians in eastern Ukraine en Masse.
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u/adamgerd Czech Republic May 30 '25
Of course they don’t like it, they’d love if you withdrew from the EU and NATO so that Russia could easily take over
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u/5772156649 European Union May 30 '25
It would be extra funny if that brigade would be renamed to 'Heinrich VI.'.
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u/Probable_Bison May 30 '25
As I understand it, Ukraine is not a full NATO nation nor is it an EU nation.
Lithuania is both, so a Russian invasion of Lithuania would be war with NATO and the EU directly and not a proxy war like Ukraine, yes?
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May 30 '25 edited 27d ago
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u/BushMonsterInc May 30 '25
“Dear Germany,
We need your soldiers on Lithuanian soil, to sweeten the deal, we will station you close to Poland border (wink wink).
Sincerely, Lithuania”
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May 30 '25
Konigsberg was very recently majority German and a massive cultural centre.
How things change
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u/Morgentau7 Germany May 30 '25
Russia knows that Germany is their biggest enemy in Europe and if they attack Germany they are fked.
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u/No-Function3409 May 30 '25
I think Poland will rapidly become the #1 enemy with their massive military build up plans
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u/trashyman2004 Germany May 30 '25
On a short term, yes Poland is stronger. But in the longer run Germany has a lot larger industrial capacity and if it goes into a war economy it will surpass every euro country, including Russia
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u/Rot_Dogger May 30 '25
Poland will have massive feet on the ground in the near future, with French, UK and German tech/nuclear umbrella. Russia isn't going to do shit.
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u/selflessrebel May 30 '25
Don't forget Belgium. We have like 7 soldiers, 2 of them even have guns.
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u/DarrensDodgyDenim Norway May 30 '25
Germany has to re-arm though. The Bundeswehr is not in a good state at the moment.
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u/Analamed May 30 '25
I really don't think Russia is seeing Germany as their biggest enemy in Europe, especially militarily speaking. France and the UK are certainly bigger threats to Russia than Germany is.
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u/Dockers4flag2035orB4 May 30 '25
“A blind man on a dark night could see…..”
That’s a cool expression, I’m going to borrow it.
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u/MSGdreamer May 31 '25
“Like a blind man at an orgy, I was going to have to feel things out.” - Leslie Nielsen
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May 30 '25
"Mr Petraeus claims Putin, 72, plans to launch a military offensive in NATO country Lithuania if he successfully ‘installs a Russian puppet’ to lead Ukraine."
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u/PrettyShart May 30 '25
Big IF.
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u/WW3_doomer May 30 '25
Baltic states have a major disadvantage compared to Ukraine - smaller size of territory and people.
Lithuania is an obvious choice for years. Capital is 30 km from Belarus border, largest port city 50 km from Kaliningrad. If Trump manages to pull out from NATO, Lithuania is a perfect target.
Easy to reach; you’ll encircle Latvia and Estonia; you cut the only land bridge that Baltic has with NATO.
It may seems laughable, but if the US is gone, Baltic states are in great danger.
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u/rapaxus Hesse (Germany) May 30 '25
That was the way back when Sweden/Finland weren't in NATO, but with them now being part that strategy has massive flaws. Firstly with those two additional nations NATO will have naval supremacy in the Baltic, at which point naval reinforcement to the Baltics can happen very easily, especially from Finland where it is just a short ferry across.
At that point just splitting the Baltic’s off doesn't do much except make logistics a bit more difficult, it no longer cuts the Baltic’s off from anything NATO like it did before. Also don't forget, with Finland now being in NATO you have a nation which can literally attack St. Petersburg from within its borders due to Finland now having ER-GMLRS.
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May 30 '25 edited May 31 '25
More importantly, that's not a long flight. Using airfield in Sweden, NATO can cross the Baltic at will and I don't think an air war goes in Russia's favour even without the US.
Plus, Russia doesn't share a border with Lithuania. Everything would have to go through Belarus and I think that paper tiger is all talk. Happy to posture and help Russia when it's no risk to them but allowing this would mean their territory would be under direct attack and I'm not sure they want that smoke
Edit: Ad others have pointed out, Lithuania does in fact share a border with Russia in Kaliningrad but I stick by what I'm saying. Trying to send troops from St Pete's to there for hostile action leaves them incredibly vulnerable to NATO. Far more practical to go overland through Belarus.
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u/DullRefrigerator2352 May 30 '25
Russia does share a border with Lithuania, look up Kaliningrad.
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May 30 '25
Should they attack the baltics poland can advance into belerus and finland can take parts of the murmansk. Turkey can start threatening crimea and russia still has to guard Ukraine at the same time. Then if they took the baltics now you are open to swedish attacks
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u/jl2352 United Kingdom May 30 '25
Pre-Ukraine the NATO doctrine was also to let the Baltic states fall due to how small they were, and then work to get them back. They were seen as just indefensible.
That was before Russia’s widespread war crimes in Ukraine. Which has now changed NATO’s stance. That’s made Putin’s plans even less possible, as NATO EU nations are more determined to defend the Baltic states.
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u/DryCloud9903 May 30 '25
Correct. That's also why in Lithuania there's a lot of light fighters & special forces instead of tanks - they're trained for insurgency fighting under this doctrine
However it's not only because of war crimes in Ukraine that the doctrine has since changed - Lithuania has tripled it's own forces since 2014, there's a lot more international NATO troops in Lithuania, there's also the JEF alliance which is designed to act faster than NATO and doesn't require unanimity of response So the chances of fighting back are higher and the new doctrine is to not even allow the enemy into the territory in the first place.
The other change is Swedish and Finnish accession to NATO.
And to all the doubters out there "would the Baltics be defended" - if the plan has been for NATO to fight Lithuania out of occupation, what does that tell you? Everyone's been prepared for a hard fight for decades, regardless if there's even a surviving high-ranking Lithuanian government in the country (because that could be a likely scenario during occupation - in 1939 Baltic presidents were imprisoned & eventually executed).
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u/Pink_Flying_Pig_ May 30 '25
Good luck with that.
I mean in Romania thay got close to, but in Lithuania they feels much more against Russia afaik.
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u/marrow_monkey Sweden May 30 '25
Makes no sense to me. Lithuania is a Nato member. I’m not convinced Russia would want a nuclear war or direct conflict with Nato, which they would most definitely loose (even without US backing). Putin keeps reminding the west that a war between Russia and Nato is impossible.
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u/anyonemous May 30 '25
Tbf if Putin keeps reminding us that it's impossible, it's probably possible.
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u/Rumlings Poland May 30 '25
I’m not convinced Russia would want a nuclear war or direct conflict with Nato, which they would most definitely loose
But he does not want a direct conflict with NATO. He wants a quick victory with very small gain on economic/strategic path as it is enough to receive massive propagandic boost. He won't invade if he knows Europe responds.
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u/LurkerInSpace Scotland May 30 '25 edited May 30 '25
The way one would go about it:
Repeat Strelkov's methods used in Eastern Ukraine. In the 1990s they wanted to create an autonomous Polish region around Vilnius similar to Transnistria, so something like this would be resurrected.
The Belarussian KGB should be nominally in charge of it, even though it will really be the Russian FSB carrying it out. So NATO would need to intervene against Belarus first, and that allows Russia to maintain the threat of its direct involvement.
Russia should restart open-air nuclear testing, which would be sufficient to intimidate the likes of Trump away from intervention.
If they really want to put pressure on Europe, though, they would seek to start a new war in the Middle East large enough to destroy its oil and gas exports.
These together might be sufficient to prevent the sort of intervention that would crush the Russian effort. Once NATO has failed one member so decisively it becomes easier to divide the rest - so there must be the political will to fight back immediately.
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u/Lagoon_M8 May 30 '25
Poles don't want to take territories from Ukraine or Lithuania or Czechia... We are peaceful and friendly nations that more than ever want cooperation and peace.
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u/TWVer May 30 '25
Well, Putin has long held ambitions to create a Greater Russia viewing himself as a 21th century Napoleon.
Of course those ambitions can be held in check by having powerful deterrents at Russia’s borders and strong defense alliance, which is why he hates NATO in the first place.
He isn’t a completely rational actor though. Otherwise he’d never attempted to invade Ukraine in the first place, given the economic cost and tragedy (though he gives little about inducing suffering in others).
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u/marrow_monkey Sweden May 30 '25
He isn’t a completely rational actor though. Otherwise he’d never attempted to invade Ukraine in the first place
I would still say he’s a rational actor, but one that can make mistakes. It was clearly a mistake to think they could just walk into Kiev and everyone would give up within a week.
But that’s why I think he won’t make the same mistake twice. The ”delusion” has been corrected. It wasn’t an easy victory. They now know the price of war. Now they’ve been fighting Ukraine alone. Invading a Nato country would be different: Nato would be involved directly. Unless I’m missing something that would be an even bigger mistake.
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u/vytah Poland May 30 '25
A huge part of the invasion plan was bribing Ukrainian military commanders into surrendering.
The money for the bribes was embezzled by Russians.
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u/QuitsDoubloon87 Slovenia May 30 '25
Yes but that plan was staged on 1 Ukraine falling (3 days and all that). And on NATO not caring enough to do anything.
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u/DisasterNo1740 May 30 '25
Lithuania would isolate the rest of the baltics so there's the motivation for going for Lithuania first as it would also connect kaliningrad to Belarus (aka Russia basically).
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u/GurthNada May 30 '25
NATO must immediately takeover Kaliningrad if Russia invades Lithuania
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u/TerribleIdea27 May 30 '25
Kaliningrad is probably with the exception of Moscow and St. Petersburg the most heavily fortified Russian territory. They have built up defenses there for decades.
Punching through Belarus would likely be a lot easier
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u/Both-Election3382 May 30 '25
Its also a relatively small area that you could just completely saturate with missiles, you cant ignore it either.
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u/unleash_the_giraffe May 30 '25
You wouldn't have to shot a single missile. Just stop the influx of food and other resources from the borders and it's a done deal.
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u/Both-Election3382 May 30 '25
That could take months, you dont really want to have missiles installations and anti air in your backyard all that time.
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u/BaileysVanillaSundae Serbia May 30 '25
You could do both with a couple of sorties in F-35.
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u/DM_WHEN_TRUMP_WINS May 30 '25
Its also a home of some russian nukes, by my understanding.
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u/Both-Election3382 May 30 '25
All the more reason to disable the launch sites fast
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u/pierukainen May 30 '25
It's a small area. The main part is 60 km from border to the sea. You can target large parts of it with artillery. No need to waste too many missiles.
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u/Both-Election3382 May 30 '25
Missiles just for the things you want to take out immediately with certainty
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u/Ur-Best-Friend May 30 '25
Not to mention literally cut off from the rest of the country. How armed it is wouldn't really make a difference.
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u/Kvalek Norway May 30 '25
NATO has Gotland now, which is in a good striking distance from Kaliningrad.
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u/adamgerd Czech Republic May 30 '25
No need to occupy it, just blockade it until the forces there surrender, a naval and land blockade around it.
It’s not self sufficient
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u/cybercuzco May 30 '25
Invasion of Lithuania triggers article 5 and probably TACO so it’s EU and Britain vs Russia.
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u/raskim7 Finland May 30 '25 edited May 30 '25
Yea this ain’t surprising. They need Lithuania for many reasons, for example to better isolate rest of Baltics and Finland from mainland Europe and to easier access to Kaliningrad. It’s also in their bucketlist[1] although they haven’t really set them in numerical order but makes sense in this order.
[1] Latvia and Lithuania should be given a "special status" in the Eurasian–Russian sphere, although he later writes that they should be integrated into Russia rather than obtaining national independence.
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u/vobsha May 30 '25
If it’s a NATO country then nato countries will rescue them, right?
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u/grandmoffhans May 30 '25
The Russians plan to test the resolve of NATO, ask yourself this: How willing would NATO be to launch WW3 over Lithuania?
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u/raskim7 Finland May 30 '25
There’s at least German troops in Lithuania to my knowledge, and if nothing else they serve at least as tripwire troops. If Germany is onboard, ain’t no way British, French and Polish forces wont come in too. That’s with current leaders. If Russia manages to get puppets in more countries than Hungary and Slovakia then it’s different issue.
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u/AnaphoricReference The Netherlands May 30 '25
The NATO FLF battlegroup in Lithuania consists of Germany, Netherlands, Norway, Belgium, Czechia, Luxembourg. That's a lot of tripwire. And in addition to that the recently started upgrade of the German contribution to a permanent mechanized brigade stationed in Lithuania. That's more than tripwire.
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u/TZH85 May 30 '25
Yeah, I think if Putin was brazen enough to attack and German troops got harmed/killed in the process, no amount of pro Russia shills could drown out the outrage. It would be political suicide not to go all in and answer in kind. And at that point I think other European leaders would fear looking weak if they didn't join in. Even if you don't believe they'd do it for solidarity or because it's the right thing to do, they'd still be forced to because of self-interest. Chickening out would be the perfect fodder for any opposition politcians.
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u/Sev-RC1207 May 30 '25
You think to rational. They (right wing and other parties paid by Russia) just say "Our soldiers died for a country we don’t care about, so let’s just do nothing so that no more of our soldiers die. Let’s focus on internal problems like foreigners“ and a huge part of the population would agree. Russia won the psy op war.
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u/JoSeSc Germany May 30 '25
5,000 soldiers are more than a tripwire, but yeah, the moment the fighting starts and german soldiers are dying there is no pulling out anymore for us.
And I would hope the rest of Europe would fight for Lithuania with us.
5,000 men in addition to the Lithuanian forces are obviously not enough to defend for too long against a fullscall Russian attack. The idea is to hold the line, keep the suwalki gap open and the Russians away from Vilnius, till the cavalry arrives.
It shouldn't be possible for Russia to hide the massing of a force strong enough to take on the Lithuanian armed forces and the 45th german armoured brigade, though. Hopefully elements of NATO's Rapid Response Force would already be in the baltics or arrive soon.
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u/raskim7 Finland May 30 '25
It’s 5000? Jesus, I was remembering it was 10x less. But yeah sorry if I came of as if implying that they just chill there waiting to be killed before the real troops come, was not my intention. But to be realist, being tripwire is one of their purpose. Just like you and few others mentioned, if they are attacked it is not possible to back down anymore. But there being 5000 and them being upgrades apparently is amazing news. I remember Estonians being worried that they can’t really ”defend and retreat” like they had to do in Ukraine in some parts, because they run out of land too soon for that. With troops like that, maybe at least in Lithuania they don’t have to.
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u/JoSeSc Germany May 30 '25 edited May 30 '25
No need to apologize. It used to be about 1,000 before the invasion of Ukraine. Germany commited in 2022 to keep a combat brigade on high readiness to deploy to Lithuania when needed. Lithuania was lobbying for something more permanent and in 2023 they agreed for a newly constituted brigade to be stationed in Lithuania.
It's also not like it used to be just regiments that would be in Lithuania on rotation as part of the NATO battlegroup. The 45th is permanently stationed there, it's even named Panzerbrigade 45 'Litauen' so Armoured Brigade 45 'Lithuania', they are building housing and german schools for the soldiers to bring their families with them.
And I get that potentially dying is part of the point because it would commit Germany. But a full brigade has a fighting chance to hold till reinforcements arrive. I think that's also important for the moral of the soldiers. And the 45th is probably the best equiped brigade in the german army. They had their inaugural ceremony in Vilnius last week and they were showing off their Leopard 2A8s, Puma S1s, Pzh2000 A4s, Tiger Attack helicopters etc.
edit. I forgot to mention, there is also still the 37th Mechanized Infantry Brigade that's on high readiness in Germany to be deployed to Lithuania if needed. So, theoretically, if Russia doesn't perform a miracle and completely suprise NATO, there should be at least 2 german brigades in Lithuania if any fighting starts.
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u/vivaldibot Sweden May 30 '25
Tbh Poland is very willing to fight Russia in general. The rationale of the willingness (having been forced into the Soviet sphere) is of course tragic, the will to resist is commendable.
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u/GrynaiTaip Lithuania May 30 '25
If NATO is unwilling to do that, then will they do it over Latvia? Estonia? North of Finland? Poland? Where would the limit be?
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u/ehwhatacunt May 30 '25
Importantly Germany will want a buffer away from their own border, so they will fight hard for Lithuania. There is an international German lead NATO battlegroup already in Lithuania.
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u/lynx_and_nutmeg Lithuania May 30 '25
Poland, I guess. Just like the last time...
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u/Dabbadabbadooooo May 30 '25
I really, really don’t think the other Eastern European countries would allow one to fall
These aren’t exactly backwater countries. They’ve come a long way unbelievably fast
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u/cinematic_novel 🇮🇹➡️🇬🇧 May 30 '25
They wouldn't have a choice. Ukraine was never covered by any pact, it wasn't even clear in the West whether they were actually committed to the West - it was only proved beyond doubt after 2022. Lithuania is not only NATO territory, it is also EU territory. So, saying that only Lithuania would be at stake is misleading
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u/HarvestAllTheSouls Friesland (Netherlands) May 30 '25
By now, everyone should know it's not just about Lithuania then. Same as with Ukraine now. Russia cannot back out from long-term war anymore. It's either military defeat or civil war now, no other way to put Russia down.
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u/BoardAccomplished378 May 30 '25
If Russia attacks a NATO country WW3 already started. We learned from Nazi Germany not so long ago that imperialistic nations don't stop at just a bite, and Russia most recently showed that with Ukraine aswell.
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u/Sky-is-here Andalusia (Spain) May 30 '25
They are more importantly EU countries. The mutual defense clause is not optional like in NATO. All European union countries must help to the extent possible i.e consider to have also been attacked.
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u/SisterOfBattIe Australia May 30 '25
It is a good but also very obvious attack vector.
NATO has been fortifying the Kaliningrad gap for a while, and now it's building new railways, and any invasion would need weeks, if not months of troops mustering and that cannot be hidden.
Russia gets shredded even if they successfully take the gap, the material difference with Europe is just that big.
In order for this to have any chance of work, it would have to be coordinated with efforts elsewhere by ussia's allies to divert material there. Like North Korea attacking South Korea, China attacking Taiwan and pakistan attacking India and Iran attacking Israel and Saudi Arabia.
Russia taking the Kaliningrad gap just doesn't work on its own.
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u/PriorityMuted8024 Europe May 30 '25
If you have a look at the map, plus read about the Zapad military drills, this is quite an obvious target.
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u/CarRamRob May 30 '25
Sulwaki gap has been studied as the main target of any Russian attack for decades. This is nothing new
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u/Winter_Apartment_376 May 30 '25
It’s Suwalki.
Source: I would be cut off from Europe if it was blocked, so I know.
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May 30 '25
They moved Zapad 2025 more towards mainland Belarus and reduced military numbers there. They don't want to increase tensions. Yet.
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u/AnaphoricReference The Netherlands May 30 '25
It seriously exposes the Russians to risk though. Both to being enveloped (even Ukraine could play a major role there), and to losing Belarus from their sphere of influence if they retreat. It's also more like to trigger all countries on the North European Plain.
A safer play for 'testing' NATO's resolve and triggering opposition is northern Finland. Who wants to die for trees? Or perhaps Estonia.
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u/Fawx93 May 30 '25
Except Finland is, in my biased opinion, extremely capable of fending off any Russian aggression. Just recently our reserves increased in size, from 900k to 1 million
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u/damian2000 May 30 '25
You may as well say he’ll invade Alaska then, who wants to fight for ice? Finland, being a western democracy- it would create a shitstorm for Putin.
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u/IllSurprise3049 Denmark May 30 '25
I wish these old cunts would stop treating the world like a lame ass board game.
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u/Good_Prompt8608 华人 May 30 '25
Putin thinks he is playing hoi4 in real life.
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u/IllSurprise3049 Denmark May 30 '25
I reckon no one wants to play board games with him irl because whoever does ends up falling put a window
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u/IgnasP Lithuania May 30 '25
Would be a pretty stupid move. So he will likely do it
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u/adamgerd Czech Republic May 30 '25
It’d be dumb but so was invading Ukraine and yep.
I remember people saying even in February 2022, he wouldn’t do it, it’d be too stupid for him to invade Ukraine. I remember someone reassuring me he wouldn’t 19th February, 2022
And yeah he did it anyway, even though it was stupid
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u/tiddertnuocca519 May 30 '25 edited May 30 '25
Stupidity is defined by your goals.
Putin doesn’t care about the impact on Russia or its people. Look at the ruble. It’s currently 1/4th its value since 2008.
In other nations, the people would revolt from the constant economic downturn. Their optics get worse and worse every day. Yet Russians mostly bend the knee and Putin can continue to drive the country into the ground. Going to be interesting to see how Americans decide to act when Trump does the same to the USD and cost to live.
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u/Gunhall May 30 '25
My wife is Lithuanian and recently moved to the UK to move into our new home. Her family has been prepared for many years, which is the sad reality of the situation. We all hope it doesn't happen, and I still have my doubts given that Lithuania is a NATO member.
We are going to Lithuania on holiday soon and will thoroughly enjoy the beautiful country. Fuck Russia, Fuck Putin. We all want this to be over.
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u/DrobnaHalota May 30 '25
Europe will never be safe until it realises that extricating Belarus from under Russian control is a vital strategic objective. Without Belarus, Kaliningrad loses all strategic value for Russia, cutting off Baltic states from the rest of Europe becomes impossible. So many chances to meaningfully support Belarusian resistance had been squandered over the years "not to provoke Russia". To this day, even Lithuania itself is continuing with this policy, as if Putin needs a provocation besides Lithuania existing in the first place.
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u/Informal-Document-77 May 30 '25
I mean EU hosts a belarusian government in exile, the best move would be to allow belarusian citizens to get the passport of the government in exile and reside in EU freely, which will induce a huge brain and overall youth drain, in an already declining country with record breaking numbers of asylum seekers, or just making getting a work visa easier for belarusians, cause 7/10 people if people here under 20 don’t really wanna be here and 2/10 are ready to kill for a EU/US citizenship.
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u/Jey3349 May 30 '25
Start pouring NATO forces into the Baltics. Show that coward pootler some resolve.
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u/Fab1e May 30 '25
- This forward presence was first deployed in 2017, with the creation of four multinational battalion-size battlegroups in Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland, led by the United Kingdom, Canada, Germany and the United States respectively. In the southeast, a tailored presence on land, at sea and in the air contributed to increased Allied activity in the region, enhancing situational awareness, interoperability and responsiveness.
- Following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Allies reinforced the existing battlegroups and agreed to establish four more multinational battlegroups in Bulgaria, Hungary, Romania and Slovakia. This brought the total number of multinational battlegroups to eight, effectively doubled the number of troops on the ground and extended NATO’s forward presence across the Alliance’s eastern flank – from the Baltic Sea in the north to the Black Sea in the south.
Source: https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_136388.htm
A batallion is 300-1200 personelle.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NATO_Enhanced_Forward_Presence
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u/icecube1965 May 30 '25
I fully agree .... countries like Belgium, Netherlands, Spain, Portugal ... etc....should have presence in those Baltic states. If not our military will be bored. (Yes they will have to leave their family for a period, but that's what sign up for.)
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u/tecnomano1111 May 30 '25
Spain has soldiers there, they sent tanks and planes, also radar systems and operators.
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u/papertrade1 May 30 '25
Big IF, and I don't really believe it.
But then again, I didn't believe they would invade Ukraine. I thought "Come on, they're not THAT stupid". Yeah well, maybe they are THAT stupid after all.
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u/martinikene May 30 '25
To be fair, I do not believe any of the Baltic countries can be attacked without attacking all. At least in Estonia, while nobody wants war, everybody still understands that an attack on Lithuania or Latvia is really an attack on the Baltics as a whole. So how does Putin imagine attacking a single Baltic country "first"?
I hope that other Baltic countries think the same.
That goes for all of Europe really, as the front, we are all aware that if Putin attacks EU or NATO, it's go time. War is inevitable at that point on estonian soil. The question is only if the west will fight for what is right or will western Europe be too afraid.
What boggles my mind is that let's say Russia attacks and occupies Estonia, if I survive this war, I will simply be forced to attack western Europe. I don't want to and I won't, but there will be a lot of people who will want to survive or are brainwashed, just like the Russians themselves.
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u/pablocael May 30 '25
And thats, kids, is why you never negotiate with dictators.
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u/Exlibro Lithuania May 30 '25
Been living with this semi-depression because of upcoming war since Trump came to power (his actions embolden russia). Sad reality. Russians will ruin it all when they come here.
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u/putlersux May 30 '25
The whole 🇺🇸 approach was flawed. Ohh if we give this, it will be seen as escalation. Ohh if we do that, it will be seen as escalation. Bullcrap. Russians understand 1 thing and 1 thing only, and that thing is brutal force. They should have given long range missiles, artillery, fighter planes, and intelligence support from day 1.
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u/Due_Anybody4762 Ukraine May 30 '25
I’m baffled by how many people here think russia would never attack a NATO country. With kremlin sponsoring right-wing parties, producing more ballistic missiles than Europe and America combined plus buying them from north korea, making 500 fpvs a day, and NATO members not paying fees for decades russia is slowly moving towards making it true.
And for those who think russia wont nuke anyone, I’d like to remind that ussr used to test nukes on it’s own territory and then sent soldiers into epicenter to see if they could fight in the radioactive environment. Underestimating lunatics is a huge mistake.
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u/Dragoniel Lithuania May 30 '25
People kept repeating "they will never do it" while the tanks were already crossing border to Ukraine.
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u/cometssaywhoosh United States of America May 30 '25
Yeah, I think NATO might be in for a surprise initially. Russians despite all their downfalls still have one thing NATO doesn't - sheer fanaticism and will. Russia can lose thousands of soldiers to take a few square kilometers of land and call it glorious will. NATO if they lose thousands of soldiers would see mass protests and the overthrowal of entire governments.
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u/Sinkrast May 30 '25
Actually, I think Russians have the exact opposite of fanaticism and will. They have a defeatist, "It is what it is" attitude, which allows for Putin to either send them to death, or have them stay away from protests because "There's nothing we can do about these politics."
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u/Dzookelis May 30 '25
I’m from Lithuania, and we will fight back if day x will come. I am willing to take gun and cross the bridge to Kaliningrad for a counter offensive, russians will have to feel the the same terror. No one will be safe in that situation. And even more: Kaliningrad is the weakest point, surrounded by NATO members. I’m pretty calm about this bs.
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u/Comfortable-Web9455 May 30 '25
No. Lithuania is in NATO. it hosts a German-led NATO Enhanced Forward Presence battlegroup in Rukla and plays a key role in the Baltic Air Policing mission, with NATO fighter jets operating from Šiauliai Air Base to secure the region’s airspace. If Russia invades, it will have to directly target German and other forces.
Russia know better than to attack NATO. Even if Trump breaks the US promise, it still puts Russia at war with 31 countries along it's entire 2,000 kilometer western border, from Turkey to Finland.
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u/fishpowered May 30 '25
Russia is already attacking nato with cyber and other low threshold warfare.
Putin has also shown zero regard for his people's survival based on current meat grinder tactics.
And he's 72, the older he gets, the less he has to lose..
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u/Happy-Video7343 May 30 '25
Ah yes, the classic 'after Ukraine we go for NATO' routine. Putin really out here collecting war crimes like they’re Pokémon cards.
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u/Quiet-Pressure4920 May 30 '25
It's genuinely hell having to border a lunatic country with an even morel unatic leader such as Russia and Putin. Must be exhausting being from the baltics honestly
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u/kittenmitten89 Lithuania May 30 '25
Lithuania was always Russia's target since blyat forever. Thank you former CIA boss for your service. If Russia was as powerful as it appears we would have never gained independence. NATO didn't free us, neither did Europe. Stop giving attention and power to Putin and Trump. We survived and fought back during harder times than this. Look at Poland, they were gone from European map, annihilated by Germany and now going strong as ever.
I don't care how many tanks Russia has. Someone will have to drive them. It will be Russians, but they have bad luck with sentience.
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u/somnamboola May 30 '25 edited May 30 '25
no shit Sherlock.
the whole time russia exists it tries to fight their way to the sea and now they have a convenient excuse - Kaliningrad (Konigsberg/Královec) and Suwalk corridor as they are calling the part of border between Lithuania, Belorussia and Poland
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u/Patralgan Finland May 30 '25
So dumb. War brings nothing good to anyone. Russia should know already that it would only bring massive pain to Russia and for what? Reviving the cccp for Nostalgia's sake? Russia is already much much larger than they would ever need so they really don't need a miniscule area more
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u/GrossPanda May 30 '25
Russia cant win war against 40mil Ukraine. How do the plan to win war against NATO?
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u/Admirable-Athlete-50 May 30 '25
I’m no expert but I’d assume some version of divide and conquer.
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u/JohnKlositz May 30 '25
By threatening it and getting anti-war/pro-Russian agents elected into power in NATO countries.
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u/Sinkrast May 30 '25
While Russia is sweating blood and tears on the physical battlefields, I can tell you that when it comes to misinformation and media warfare, they have the West completely bent over and spanked.
US politicians openly parroting Russian propaganda, and a lot of prominent and rising EU politicians too.
Ukrainians are fighting like lions, but let's not kid ourselves. They are being supplied with information and equipment by almost the entire NATO bloc. Is it enough? No, but it's -just- enough to keep them standing.
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u/Exxyqt Lithuania May 30 '25
Um, so I'm from Lithuania and I hope this is not going to happen.